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MuffinMan

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings | Marvel Studios | 92% RT & 99% VA Score | ONLY IN THEATERS Sep 3 2021

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We have to give benefit of doubt to MCU whose lowest OW ever is still a big number. They have a fanbase who will check it out for sure, I dont see any chance of national lockdown or anything remotely crazy. Plus without PA, I cant see this open badly. Let us see how things go. 

Edited by keysersoze123
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2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I don't mind talk about Covid or delays, but let's all agree to have even a semblance of reality or evidence behind them. 

 

Speculation is one thing, but there are way way too many stating that delays are coming as if they are a certainty.  

 

That's all I ask.  I don't doubt there will be delays here and there or calendar changes, but that is what happens even in non-covid years.  

 

It's tiring to check back in on multiple threads after a few hours and see they have all devolved to a page or two of most people speaking as if delays or ridiculous scenarios are a guarantee or etched in stone.  

I don't think anyone is confident or guaranteeing delays or any kind. I haven't seen anything definitive in that regard. We've accepted we live in unpredictable times and have been recently shocked about the moviegoing culture and of course want to remain sensitive about the pandemic. I personally believe it's too late for delays or PA for this film but I understand why others feel otherwise and debate it. There's uncertainty about box office and the shareholders meeting tomorrow is a valid reason to predict some kind of announcement

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15 minutes ago, Cap said:

I don’t know if it was here or the tracking thread, but I pointed out before that the non-Covid Holiday Record for Labor Day is 30M OW. I think that’s an Easy enough hurdle for this to jump over, which means that regardless if it does 35 million or it does 80 million, they still can spin it in a positive light. So I don’t quite get the doom and gloom.

Well… why would we care how they spin it? A 35M OW when the previous Labor Day record is 30M is no better an actual performance than of the previous record was 40M or 140M.

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I'm putting all my hopes in this movie.

 

$70M for the 4-day not only would be a record and great for the movie itself but would give us relief and finish this endless fear of delays etc.

 

If this one succeeds despite the Delta peak, i think everyone will agreed the rest of the year are safe.

 

I'm kinda confident, it's a lower one but still a MCU movie afterall.

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1 minute ago, Lokis Legion said:

Well… why would we care how they spin it? A 35M OW when the previous Labor Day record is 30M is no better an actual performance than of the previous record was 40M or 140M.

But do most people know what the actual number is? My point is that you can stick “Labor Day record” on TV spots without people really reading the fine print. The headline is good. That’s my point. 

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Cases have risen a lot here just in the span of a week so I’m not sure I’ll be comfortable going back to a theatre when this releases.  I was hoping our Premier would do what other places have done and mandate vaccines for indoor activities like movies/eating in a restaurant but he’s an idiot and that’s not happening. We’ll see what happens closer to the date. 

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14 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I don't think anyone is confident or guaranteeing delays or any kind. I haven't seen anything definitive in that regard. We've accepted we live in unpredictable times and have been recently shocked about the moviegoing culture and of course want to remain sensitive about the pandemic. I personally believe it's too late for delays or PA for this film but I understand why others feel otherwise and debate it. There's uncertainty about box office and the shareholders meeting tomorrow is a valid reason to predict some kind of announcement

 

Dear lord, we had a freaking mod on this very site spiking the football only days ago because Clifford the Big Red Dog was pulled from the calendar.  Don't tell me that anyone isn't confident or guaranteeing delays.  It is happening in multiple threads.  

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1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Dear lord, we had a freaking mod on this very site spiking the football only days ago because Clifford the Big Red Dog was pulled from the calendar.  Don't tell me that anyone isn't confident or guaranteeing delays.  It is happening in multiple threads.  

Well Paramount DID confirm the film was delayed because Delta

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Can't wait until about a day from so we know for sure and people can stop pointing at the earnings call as the place that Disney will drop a bombshell and announce PA, it's way too late for that and they've been ramping up promotion for theatrical release. On top of that the optics would look terrible with the whole Scarjo situation.

 

Spoiler

Now I've probably cursed the whole thing and it will be delayed or PA 

 

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$70m is....optimistic to say the least. Of course some locals said BW would do 100m OW and even with presales, I was skeptical and proven correct. Of course my prediction of $85 million OW itself turned out a tad naive so what do I know? 

 

With everything else and Asia markets (which I'm not sure even if everything is A-OK they would be necessarily be lining up for this one), I still think Disney will have to take it on the chin here. The movie I'm sure will be fine as MCU boiler plate, or who knows better? Crazier things have happened. 

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16 minutes ago, RRA said:

$70m is....optimistic to say the least. Of course some locals said BW would do 100m OW and even with presales, I was skeptical and proven correct. Of course my prediction of $85 million OW itself turned out a tad naive so what do I know? 

 

With everything else and Asia markets (which I'm not sure even if everything is A-OK they would be necessarily be lining up for this one), I still think Disney will have to take it on the chin here. The movie I'm sure will be fine as MCU boiler plate, or who knows better? Crazier things have happened. 

It's for the 4-day. $70M would mean +50M for the weekend, so around Ant Man numbers.

 

I think is reasonable, the question is that with so many variables is hard to predict anything.

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I'm very curious about this earnings call tomorrow 

 

I don't think SC will move, but i'm curious about what they have to say about the current environment. How Disney perceive things now, what's their plans for the next few months considering how volatile things are these days, how is going to work the 45 days window for them etc.

 

Whatever they said is probably what most studios are thinking too.

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15 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I'm very curious about this earnings call tomorrow 

 

I don't think SC will move, but i'm curious about what they have to say about the current environment. How Disney perceive things now, what's their plans for the next few months considering how volatile things are these days, how is going to work the 45 days window for them etc.

 

Whatever they said is probably what most studios are thinking too.

I imagine if they do talk about that in regards to movies it will be something along the line of wait and see how Free Guy/Shang-Chi perform and decide on what to do with their big November releases later.

 

Delta impact to the parks is much more likely to be talked about though as compared to the film business. 

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48 minutes ago, Cap said:

But do most people know what the actual number is? My point is that you can stick “Labor Day record” on TV spots without people really reading the fine print. The headline is good. That’s my point. 

No no, I got that, 
 

My point is, why would any of the nerds on this board give a shit about that 😛 

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21 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It's for the 4-day. $70M would mean +50M for the weekend, so around Ant Man numbers.

 

I think is reasonable, the question is that with so many variables is hard to predict anything.

OK my mistake, I thought you meant 3 days. Fair enough. 

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13 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

No no, I got that, 
 

My point is, why would any of the nerds on this board give a shit about that 😛 

Why do the nerds on this board give a shit about any of this stuff? 😘

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15 minutes ago, Cap said:

Why do the nerds on this board give a shit about any of this stuff? 😘

Well, generally the nerds give a shit about the numbers because they’e interesting. But afaik we don’t really care about headline spin, because it’s irrelevant to understanding actual performance.

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