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SAG 2018 thread

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1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

I'm rooting for this. Also, it's peaking at the right time without the frontrunner backlash baggage that's gone the Green Book way. Plus, it is time for an African American director to win so who better than Legend Spike? 

yeah even if it doesn't win Picture i think spike's got a good shot at director. i love that's he's bringing up "hey remember when i wasn't nominated for do the right thing and driving miss daisy won best picture" a lot in interviews. green book looks like driving miss daisy back from the dead.

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Even with an "ehh" film, Chalabae's still gettin' the raves. One step closer to the Oscars baby. Suffer haters.

 

By the way the Bohemian Rhapsody nomination for Ensemble's disgusting. If this seriously gets a Best Picture nom, I hope all the people who voted for it step on a Lego.

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3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

yeah even if it doesn't win Picture i think spike's got a good shot at director. i love that's he's bringing up "hey remember when i wasn't nominated for do the right thing and driving miss daisy won best picture" a lot in interviews. green book looks like driving miss daisy back from the dead.

OMG, good point! If GB won it would be like the repeat of that year. :gold:

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The number of people I know who have seen Bohemian Rhapsody and absolutely LOVED it is pretty astounding. I feel so lonely being the one who thought it was just OK at best. If you think the movie has been the subject of thinkpieces now, imagine what will happen if it somehow ends up a Best Picture nominee.

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1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

Even with an "ehh" film, Chalabae's still gettin' the raves. One step closer to the Oscars baby. Suffer haters.

 

It'd be awesome to see him get nominated, both for him and for the sake of the film he represents (which I haven't seen but want to see). Chalamet continues to break barriers for younger actors, and another nomination would add another layer of prestige to Villeneuve's Dune. That's the silver lining I'd take away from his nomination. And, yeah, I absolutely believe that, for performance awards, the performances should take precedence over the films themselves (a la Natalie Portman in Jackie).

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Considering the love Black Kklansman has been getting I don't see why Driver is considered the vulnerable one in BSA - popular actor getting universal praise and has showed up everywhere, in one of the five frontrunners for Best Picture, doesn't scream vulnerable to me. I'd say Chalamet certainly is more vulnerable, but Elliot and Grant don't feel THAT much safer than Driver, especially Elliot given the length of his performance and the Globe snub. Hell, I think if the Academy doesn't really go for Green Book, Driver might have a chance to win the whole shebang.

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btw I still think King has a good chance of winning, unless The Favourite becomes a real hit in the industry (it missing Ensemble doesn't help that argument). Adams is in a divisive feature and Stone and Weisz might split up in terms of votes. If Blunt gets in, I don't see her role garnering enough passion votes. If Robbie gets in, the film's such a no1curr that even I keep forgetting that it's coming out. The competition is still pretty weak.

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5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Considering the love Black Kklansman has been getting I don't see why Driver is considered the vulnerable one in BSA - popular actor getting universal praise and has showed up everywhere, in one of the five frontrunners for Best Picture, doesn't scream vulnerable to me. I'd say Chalamet certainly is more vulnerable, but Elliot and Grant don't feel THAT much safer than Driver, especially Elliot given the length of his performance and the Globe snub. Hell, I think if the Academy doesn't really go for Green Book, Driver might have a chance to win the whole shebang.

 

After the SAG nomination I think Driver is about 90% in. Chalamet is clear cut the weakest by virtue of Beautiful Boy having nothing going for it otherwise. Don't think Driver's winning though. I suspect voters would rally more around an old timer like Elliot or Grant if it came down to it. I'd find it weird for someone like Ali to win again but obviously Waltz did something similar.

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3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

After the SAG nomination I think Driver is about 90% in. Chalamet is clear cut the weakest by virtue of Beautiful Boy having nothing going for it otherwise. Don't think Driver's winning though. I suspect voters would rally more around an old timer like Elliot or Grant if it came down to it. I'd find it weird for someone like Ali to win again but obviously Waltz did something similar.

Elliot's role is too short and Grant's role feels too much of a small indie character actor role for the Academy (I'm not sure how to phrase it not to sound dumb), but I've been wrong before. After seeing Green Book, I still think Ali does it. It's a meaty role and he knocks it out of the park. I didn't necessarily love the overall movie (big shock) but he's terrific in it and it checks a ton of boxes for the Academy. Dude can just convey a ton with a tiny facial expression or slight shift in vocal tone - he's unbelievable and rises above what could have easily been a hackneyed caricature.

 

If they're willing to give Waltz two in a row and almost give two in a row to Eddie Redmayne, I think that it happens for Ali. 

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13 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Elliot and Grant don't feel THAT much safer than Driver

 

Now, I agree with Elliot being less safe than Driver, but I feel like Grant has dominated the critics' circles in a way that should at least guarantee him the nomination. Of course, both films of the other two actors were much more financially successful, but if Grant has appeared at both Globes and SAG like he has alongside the critic award prescence, then I think that will mean he gets the nomination. A win is a little more up in the air for sure.

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4 minutes ago, Slambros said:

 

Now, I agree with Elliot being less safe than Driver, but I feel like Grant has dominated the critics' circles in a way that should at least guarantee him the nomination. Of course, both films of the other two actors were much more financially successful, but if Grant has appeared at both Globes and SAG like he has alongside the critic award prescence, then I think that will mean he gets the nomination. A win is a little more up in the air for sure.

Oh yea I definitely think he's probably the second safest after Ali. I'd say Ali, Grant, Driver, and Elliot all feel pretty safe - it's Chalamet that would miss out IMO. 

 

The winners are less clear than they usually are at this point. I thought King was the closest bet to a lock but that obviously just changed, I have no clue who would be the one to beat her though. I'd say Cooper is the safest bet, and I still find it very difficult to believe someone is beating him. But Supporting Actor is a complete tossup and Colman has started to pick up some real momentum to beat Gaga, and McCarthy/Blunt aren't out of it yet either. Feels like it at least won't be the boring chore it was last year or 2014 with the constant sweeps. 

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20 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Considering the love Black Kklansman has been getting I don't see why Driver is considered the vulnerable one in BSA - popular actor getting universal praise and has showed up everywhere, in one of the five frontrunners for Best Picture, doesn't scream vulnerable to me. I'd say Chalamet certainly is more vulnerable, but Elliot and Grant don't feel THAT much safer than Driver, especially Elliot given the length of his performance and the Globe snub. Hell, I think if the Academy doesn't really go for Green Book, Driver might have a chance to win the whole shebang.

Driver is a solid third in the category. Elliott's Globe snub definitely killed his chances at the win, and it's solely between Grant and Ali now.

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