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Charlie Jatinder

Avengers: End Game $1 Billion Opening Weekend Globally.

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Before everyone loses their temper, just want to mention that I am assuming a day and date release in China. In case the day and date release don't happen, consider it worldwide weekend + China weekend (whenever it releases). Let's start.

 

Avengers: End Game is without any doubt the biggest film of 2019, perhaps of all time, in terms of global opening. The previous film Infinity War grossed $640,521,291 in its opening weekend globally and another $200,944,666  in China & $18,193,251 in Russia. This gives the total day and date global opening of $859,605,208.

That's about $140.4 million short of a Billion, with B, dollars weekend

 

Now Infinity War itself had a beast opening, growing on it would be difficult but doable. I expect the film to do $290 million in North America, $240 million (+20%) plus in China and $475 million (+18%) in rest of the world.

 

Who all agree?

 

This is my first club, so don't know if I was supposed to do something else other than writing. Do guide me.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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Out. IW was already around biggest in most countries. Increasing $140m, just 1 year from it's release is near impossible. Around $900m is what I am thinking.

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Yuan has lost value since Infinity War, so that could limit the growth in USD in China. I'd definitely be in if ER was the same for both films, but right now I think it will fall slightly short of $1 billion global opening. 

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If we account the opening as you say, not being necessary to open every country the same weekend, I think it is possible, but it depends a lot on exchange rates.

 

And China has one big problem right now in that sense. Although China is showing that IW success was not casual, and SH genre is exploding again with Venom and Aquaman, the fact is that Yuan has dropped a 10% relative to Dollar since IW opening.

 

IW OW was 1.272b Yuan ($200m). That amount is $185m today. In order to open to those $240m you are saying it needs a 1.656b Yuan OW. That means a 30% increase in local currency. Doable? never say never with China, but it seems a really big jump over an already big opening.

 

And you have to consider that another big market as UK has the same problem. And the worst thing is that problem can be even worse during next months because of Brexit.

 

If we had the same ERs than in last May I would say IN with ease. For the moment, and taking into account what I said, I am OUT, with "JUST" 900-925. But if ERs improve and next trailer is good enough I can change my opinion...

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out, although the trailer view broke the record, but it hardly stirred intense hype like IW did.

An increase of opening weekend is likely but not 1b

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I think it might be better to think about increases/decreases per local currency in comparison to the local currencies as IW got released and then claculate if.....

 

Btw, I never understood why they do ww OW per date and not per sum of all the OWs, so that's what I really like about this club

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Gonna have to be OUT. It would require about 16% rise to hit a billion. 1 year is too short a period to have such a huge market growth. 

 

The biggest impediment perhaps is the ER which has worsened since IW. This combined with the jump will mean that many markets have to do as much as 25% or maybe even more. 

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It'd be very cool but it's not gonna happen.  Less than 2% chance I think, 90% chance it opens under 900m for all territories combined.

Out.

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On 12/11/2018 at 9:05 PM, Charlie Jatinder said:

The previous film Infinity War grossed $640,521,291 in its opening weekend globally and another $200,944,666  in China & $18,193,251 in Russia. This gives the total day and date global opening of $859,605,208. 

1,000,000,000 / $859,605,208 = 1.16333 (round-up), so A:Endgame needs to do 16.4% more than A:IW in opening weekend to break 1B. I do think it is likely with more audience and more front-loading for A:Endgame. And I expect US dolllar to weaken against foreign currencies comes April 2019 compared to April/May 2018, which will favour 1B record in USD term.

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