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Eric Atreides

Wednesday Numbers: Poppins 4.8M l Everything's dead. Screw everything.

By Eric Atreides, in Numbers and Data

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Eric Atreides Global Phenomenon

Eric Atreides

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Disney’s Mary Poppins Returns looks to be on course for a Wednesday opening day in the $7M-$8M range according to industry mid-day estimates. That figure is on par with the $7.2M Wednesday pre-Christmas opening for Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle last year as well as Disney’s Amy Adams 2007 musical Enchanted which opened the Wednesday before Thanksgiving to $7.96M.

 

The question is does Mary Poppins Returns get the pop from families over the weekend like Jumanji 2 did (5-day $52.7M, 6-day including Christmas was $71.9M)? There’s more serious competition in the family arena this year with Sony’s holdover Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and Paramount opener Bumblebee and Warner Bros.’ Aquaman than what Jumanji 2 faced last December (arguably, in terms of the family play, it was just Star Wars: The Last Jedi). Should Mary Poppins Returns emulate a B.O. trajectory like Jumanji 2 or Enchanted, it’s looking at a five-day between $49M-$51M. Older females are sure to be a destination for the Emily Blunt — Lin-Manuel Miranda feature, and that demographic is known to pre-buy and plan their visits to the multiplex.

 

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Eric Atreides Global Phenomenon

Eric Atreides

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Using Monsters Inc. 3D as a comp (the last time a movie opened in this specific calendar configuration)

 

Low end:

7M

6.3M

12.5M

16.9M

13.5M

56.2M total

 

High end:

8M

7.2M

14.3M

19.3M

15.4M

64.2M total

 

Obviously this won't have that film's holds, since this will have more upfront demand. However, this is a great start for the film, and 50M 5-Day seems like a certainty at this point.

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narniadis Blockbuster

narniadis

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6 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

I think it might be even the weekend thread as it plays into the OW, or?

I vote it can stay separate. No point in continuing since so many things will shift between now and Friday. 

 

Good start. Was hoping that 10m might be in the cards, but the presales didnt pop enough to do that. Either way its on the way to making good money the next two weeks. 

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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

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8 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I vote it can stay separate. No point in continuing since so many things will shift between now and Friday.

It's not about voting, its about how it was handled in the past (as I did a lot of numbers delivering) = I have a slight ~ feeling it was handled as the new weekend-thread then. But as that was 2 years back, things might have changed, hence I am questioning about it 😉

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

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3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

so there's still a chance for under 250M correct?

 

A small chance, a very narrow one. Looks more like a 275-320M run to me. But it could still struggle in the New year i suppose.

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narniadis Blockbuster

narniadis

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48 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

It's not about voting, its about how it was handled in the past (as I did a lot of numbers delivering) = I have a slight ~ feeling it was handled as the new weekend-thread then. But as that was 2 years back, things might have changed, hence I am questioning about it 😉

 Not so much voting as expressing my desire lol. 

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