Dec 21-23 Weekend Thread | Sat#'s (Asgard pg 60) - Aqua 21.8, MPR 8.8, BB 7.2, SMSV 6.9, Mule 3.8 | Discuss Pitbull's musical work here

[VTKajin]

Those first week totals are fantastic. 

[AdamKendall]

11 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Higher in all likelihood. 332 is till Thursday after it was 285 on Monday EOD.  That's about 47M in 3 days of which China contributed 14M. Lowball domestic and give it 68M OW to get it to 400M WW. China looking like 22M for 422M. New markets and holdovers should at least add as much as Tuesday to Thursday, so 33M from holdover markets and about 30M or more from the new openers if it just matches WW OW in the new markets. Lowballing everything would give it 480M by Sunday.

Yeah, by end of Christmas Day very good likelihood Aquaman is already pushing close to 575-600 million worldwide.

[kswiston]

33 minutes ago, a2k said:

ITSV

 

42.43 till Tue

 

2.78 Wed

2.89 Thu

17.35 FSS

23.0 Wed-Sun

 

If new films can do 5-6x their 5-day ow, ITSV can do 8-9x it's Wed-Sun which is not it's first 5-days.

 

42.43 + 23*8 = 226

42.43 + 23*9 = 249

 

The Hobbit 1 only did 4x its Wed-Sun on this same set up in 2012, so I don't think that better legs than openers is a given.  

 

The dates don't line up, but last year The Last Jedi did around 3.5x its Wed-Sun and Ferdinand did 6.5x. If you do the same for Rogue One, Collateral Beauty, TFA, Sisters, Alvin 4, Hobbit 3, Night at the Museum 3, Annie, Hobbit 2, and Madea, you will find that Ferdinand had by far the best multiplier of the bunch. The rest didn't even hit 5x that Wed-Sun for their post-first tuesday run, and most were under 4x.

 

That's every major third weekend of Dec release since 2012. You can definitely argue that Spider-verse reviewed a lot better than most of those, and doesn't have the Star Wars first week rush, but 8-9x seems more based on optimism than past data. 

Edited December 21, 2018 by kswiston

[AHepBurn]

HUGE start for Mary Poppins!

 

Spoiler

 

[dxmatrixdt]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

I honestly don't understand what I said that has everyone react like this or with surly emojis. I complimented the actress, said she looked pretty as a kid. I'm underage myself in case you think I'm a creep or whatever. I swear people are so weird sometimes. 

 

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Ok whatever. I still don't get what I said wrong but next time I won't compliment anyone just to be on the safe side. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, AHepBurn said:

HUGE start for Mary Poppins!

 

 

Edited December 21, 2018 by Valonqar

[dashrendar44]

So Mary ain't poppin'...More like Mary Poopin'.

 

(Didn't check if those terrible puns were already unleashed on BOT. In that case ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ).

[ZattMurdock]

I told y’all that Aquaman and maybe even Spider-Verse could end up breaking out over Poppins. It feels good to be right.

 

Also, Disney fucked up big time by not putting Solo in December. It’d give time for Howard to flesh out the effects more AND it would actually make bank, unlike Poppins. Star Wars films belong to December now, I hope they got the memo by now.

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I told y’all that Aquaman and maybe even Spider-Verse could end up breaking out over Poppins. It feels good to be right.

 

Also, Disney fucked up big time by not putting Solo in December. It’d give time for Howard to flesh out the effects more AND it would actually make bank, unlike Poppins. Star Wars films belong to December now, I hope they got the memo by now.

You said Spider-Verse would open to over 80 million if not 100 million, you've got literally nothing to brag about.

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

You said Spider-Verse would open to over 80 million if not 100 million, you've got literally nothing to brag about.

I still think it might end up over Poppins when it’s all said and done. December is harder to predict than Summer in NA, but I’ve always said that people were underestimating Aquaman, and I was spot on.

[That One Girl]

I'M SEEING THE MULE IN AN HOUR!

[WrathOfHan]

BOP tracking and TCs: https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-isnt-romantic-alita-battle-angel-happy-death-day-2u/

 

Isn't It Romantic: 14/54 (OW range of 12-17M)

Happy Death Day: 24/52 (OW range of 19-26M)

Alita: 14.5/41 (OW range of 12-20M)

 

Escape Room: 2,750

[Steele131]

https://deadline.com/2018/12/aquaman-bumblebee-christmas-thursday-night-previews-weekend-box-office-1202524462/

[Premium George]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

BOP tracking and TCs: https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-isnt-romantic-alita-battle-angel-happy-death-day-2u/

 

Isn't It Romantic: 14/54 (OW range of 12-17M)

Happy Death Day: 24/52 (OW range of 19-26M)

Alita: 14.5/41 (OW range of 12-20M)

 

Escape Room: 2,750

Alita dom=0.05A dom.

[grim22]

https://deadline.com/2018/12/aquaman-bumblebee-christmas-thursday-night-previews-weekend-box-office-1202524462/

 

Quote

3rd UPDATE, Midday: Industry box office sources are being conservative in regards to projections since it’s still the pre-holiday period. So while Aquaman‘s $9M Thursday would typically indicate a $80M+ opening (and that could still happen), right now estimates are in the $70M-$75M range over FSS with a first day of $30M including previews of $13.7M. A solid start for what is expected to be a great stretch. Remember, this $200M DC production has already bagged $332.1M offshore. By Christmas Day we could be looking at half billion worldwide for the James Wan-directed feature. Stateside, Aquaman will go down as his second-biggest opener in U.S. Canada over FSS after Furious 7‘s $147.1M start.

 

Despite what we’re projecting here, there is a school of thought that No. 2 could be a three-way race between Poppins, Bumblebee and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse with $20M. Right now, sources are seeing Disney’s Mary Poppins Returns with a $6.2M first Friday and a projected 3-day of$20M-$23M; by Sunday it’s five-day could be as high as $32M. It’s a musical, it’s going to leg out, and by Sunday could be running as much as 138% ahead of the $13.4M Wednesday through Sunday launch of The Greatest Showman a year ago.

Paramount’s Bumblebee is seeing $7M today, including $2.85M previews, with a 3-day between $18M-$22M. It’s also in for the long haul. A year ago, Fandango reported that millennials can see as many as four films over the Christmas-New Year’s Day corridor

In fourth is Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse with a second Friday of $5M, -61% because of last Friday’s previews, and a second weekend between $17M-$19M, -49% for a 10-day take of $67.1M on the high-end.

 

Universal is grateful for Illumination’s The Grinch in the wake of Mortal Engines and Welcome to Marwen breaking down. He’s set to make a seventh weekend between $9M-$11M, -15% for a running take of $256M, just $4M shy of the domestic B.O. for Ron Howard’s 2000 live-action version of the green guy.

STX’s Second Act is eyeing $3M today for a $7M-$10M weekend.

 

[grim22]

Taking the estimates as is currently and giving it low jumps and bigger drops

13.7

16.3

23

18.5 for a 71.5M OW and an additional 34M up to Christmas for an extended opening of 106M. Definitely puts it in the running for 300 domestic with this opening. If Friday goes up and families come out Saturday it can obviously go much higher. 16M True Friday off a 9M previews looks low, but as Deadline said, they are being conservative keeping the holiday in mind currently.

 

Today is also the last day of work this year for most people, the effect tomorrow will be interesting to see.

[TMP]

43 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

I'M SEEING THE MULE IN AN HOUR!

Give us the Muler Report when you're done

[Valonqar]

it seems to me that some trades literally exist to talk about legs for movies that are clearly underperforming. But but legs. Don't worry about shitty opening, but but legs. Yeah, lets see how that works for 10+ movies that are supposed to save themselves with legs. Sorry but it's irritating. It's clear that studios are not happy with results and are pushing for legs damage control that may not be as long as they think. 

Edited December 21, 2018 by Valonqar

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, grim22 said:

https://deadline.com/2018/12/aquaman-bumblebee-christmas-thursday-night-previews-weekend-box-office-1202524462/

 

 

"right now estimates are in the $70M-$75M range over FSS with a first day of $30M including previews of $13.7M"...

 

Stole my exact projection...okay, yes, Deadline could have done their own Math...but when have they ever, really?:)

Edited December 21, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]