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Eric Atreides

WrathofHan and CoolEric's Controversial* Predictions of 2019 (*Controversial results may vary)

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January 25

 

The Kid Who Would Be King: CHRIST this movie looks horrendous. Movies like this are why many don’t take family films seriously. Unfortunately, I think it will put up a decent opening weekend. I have gotten the trailer at Grindelwald and Ralph Breaks the Internet, and the trailer was a hit at both movies. Additionally, trailer views are pretty good for a kids movie. This is decidedly more targeted at kids than A Dog’s Way Home, which may help inflate its OW. Legs will not be the best because of LEGO and Dragon, but for its firsrt two weeks, it will be doing well. 14/40 (2.86x)

 

Serenity: I have no clue why Aviron decided to delay this from October 19. Serenity is going to flop anywhere it releases for one gigantic reason: these trailers are confusing as hell. They have no hook and are just random clips thrown together. Combine that with a small studio, and nothing is going in its favor. Prepare for a pathetic flop. 2/4 (2x)

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3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

January 18

 

Glass: This weekend’s only wide release is a biggie. Building off the huge success of Split,Shyamalan is continuing the story by bringing in one of his first hits withUnbreakable. Glass already has a lot of goodwill going for it, and online buzz is strong through social media and trailer views. One of the film’s biggest advantages is its 4 quad appeal. Younger audiences loved Split and will show up while older audiences who remember Unbreakable will come out to see how the characters have changed nearly 20 years later. Aquaman and Bumblebee won’t be huge issues in their fifth weekends either. This movie is going to dominate the box office for several weeks regardless of its quality. The only question right now is how high legs can go. I don’t know if it can achieve a 3.5x like Split, but given the lack of competition, I think it’ll go over a 3x. The size of the OW depends how much buzz ramps up over the next few weeks, but I wouldn’t underestimate the mastermind. 75/240 (3.2x)

 

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I know we use words like "barren" a lot around here but this January really is barren. My personal litmus test is asking myself what I would like to see in theatres in any given month. Now, I'm someone who is really quite liberal with my movie choices. The theatre is where most of my spare cash goes. Even I can't see myself going to anything but GLASS in January (excluding whatever expansions we get of course). Maaaaaaaybe SERENITY on a Tuesday.

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2 hours ago, JB33 said:

I know we use words like "barren" a lot around here but this January really is barren. My personal litmus test is asking myself what I would like to see in theatres in any given month. Now, I'm someone who is really quite liberal with my movie choices. The theatre is where most of my spare cash goes. Even I can't see myself going to anything but GLASS in January (excluding whatever expansions we get of course). Maaaaaaaybe SERENITY on a Tuesday.

I was talking to my boss and yea I'm a bit worried about January. The Christmas openers are mostly doing fine for themselves, but they definitely aren't enough to carry a month that is pretty void of compelling openers. 2019 is going to have a rough start, and if it weren't for Jan/Feb looking weak, I'd be certain that this year would crush the DOM record. 

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February 1

 

Jacob’s Ladder: Oh boy, there is a lot to unpack with this Will Packer production. This might not even make the release date because no marketing has been released, but my prediction won’t change whenever it moves. First off, this movie was filmed nearly 3 YEARS AGO. That should be an immediate red flag. Secondly, LD Entertainment only has one wide release under their belts (Dog Days), and it was a massive flop. The only thing going in its favor is Will Packer’s name, but given he is away from Universal this time, will that even matter? 2.5/5 (2x)

 

Miss Bala: This one is a tough one to predict. Releasing on Super Bowl weekend usually is not a good sign, and the film’s trailer is pretty generic. However, Hispanic audiences should never be underestimated. As we have seen with Eugenio Derbez’s various films and the Furious series among other movies, this demographic can have a big impact on the box office. It has been a while since a wide release has had Hispanic audiences as their top demo (it was probably Overboard), which can help this out greatly. Miss Bala probably will not light the box office on fire, but its total should be respectable as it draws in a demo that is in need of a film like this. 12/36 (3x)

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February 1

Miss Bala: An American remake of the critically acclaimed Spanish drama, this seems like it will likely be lost in the shuffle. Glass will still be playing and Catherine Hardwicke’s very hit-and-miss. Also doesn't help that it's coming out on Super Bowl weekend. Not a great sign. Something akin to the last Resident Evil film sounds just about right. 12/28 (2.33x)

 

Jacob's Ladder doesn't have any promotional materials yet, so I'm just going to assume it'll have a delay.

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February 8

Cold Pursuit: A lot of recent Liam Neeson action pieces (The Commuter, Run All Night, Walk Among the Tombstones) have opened in the low teens. This has a better trailer, a better hook, and a strong co-star with Laura Dern, so this should do slightly better. However, don’t expect Non-Stop numbers. 16/45 (2.81x)

 

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part: After five years, we’re finally getting a direct sequel. But does anyone (apart from @YourMother the Edgelord) really care? Lego Batman did respectable business, while Lego Ninjago was a flop. But it will have been nearly 17 months since Ninjago was out, which will benefit the film a bit (absence makes the heart grow fonder and such). However, it doesn’t seem like the trailers have gotten many excited for the movie (the second trailer’s only gotten 2.7M views in a month), and Dragon 3 will cut into its legs. Regardless, this should still do decent business, even if it won’t reach the heights of the first movie or maybe even Lego Batman. Perhaps going spin-offs first instead of a sequel was not the best idea for the franchise. 55/170 (3.09x)

 

The Prodigy: It has a decent jump scare in the trailer, but that’s really about it. Happy Death Day will be out a week later, so this won’t garner much cash. 8/20 (2.5x)

 

What Men Want: This has great potential to be a surprise hit few of us will see coming. What Women Want was a massive hit back in 2000, adjusting to $300M in 2018 dollars. This obviously won’t be as big as that film, but the trailers are funny, it’ll be the first comedy film in ages, and with it coming out pre-Valentine's Day weekend, it will be able to capitalize on a strong second-weekend hold. All hail Queen Taraji! 35/120 (3.43x)

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