WrathofHan and CoolEric's Controversial* Predictions of 2019 (*Controversial results may vary)

[Eric Duncan]

Sigh....let's just get this over with.

December 13

Jumanji 2/3: When Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle came out, it was a perfect storm of elements. Nostalgia, starpower, a creative concept, great comedy, all that good stuff. But I feel like it's so lightning in a bottle that I can't see the sequel matching up to it. It will still do well, and perhaps Jake Kasdan will have something new up his sleeve, but I think it’s fair to say there will be a bit of a drop when it comes to the next iteration. Just don’t see what new hook they can pull off here that will be as enticing as the last one. Also doesn’t help that this is coming out before Star Wars instead of after. Dwanta Claus will try, and the OW jump should be massive, but a drop similar from Deadpool to Deadpool 2 sounds like the likely scenario here. 80/360 (4.5x)

Edited January 6, 2019 by CoolEric258

[reddevil19]

Looks about right, actually. Except the whole "great comedy" thing in the first movie... 😐 

Edited January 6, 2019 by reddevil19

[MrGlass2]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Nostalgia, starpower, a creative concept, great comedy, all that good stuff. But I feel like it's so lightning in a bottle that I can't see the sequel matching up to it.

Well after a breakout, 10% drop for a sequel is pretty good.

[Eric Duncan]

December 20

Cats: This is the one movie that I feel could go either way. 200M or sub-100M wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. Cats is to musicals like Ready Player One is to sci-fi. It’s popular, but I don’t think I’ve ever met someone who has actually liked it. And I’ve done musical theater for years, so I know this film’s target audience really well. It also has one of the weirdest casts ever conceived. But on the other hand, musicals are killing the box office lately, Taylor Swift has her fans, and there will probably be some curiosity in how the characters and their make-up will be pulled off. It won’t be a Greatest Showman, but a modest enough hit. 25/135 (5.4x)

 

Star Wars: Episode IX: People want controversial predictions? Well, here we go. People are already predicting Endgame will be the big kahuna of the year. Well in 2019, Star Wars is coming back to reclaim its domestic throne. Yes. I went there.

 

And before we get into this, a few things. To the people who are going to come along with your “STAR WARS IS DEAD RIAN JOHNSON DESTROYED CHILDHOODS”, let me say some things: First of all, to the obnoxious fuckwads who have incessantly complained about The Last Jedi for over a year, have taken part of or encouraged the constant harassment the cast and crew have experienced, or are just unpleasant assholes who caused many people to leave or barely post on this forum and should have been banned a long time ago, please fuck off and die in a fire. Now, let’s just go into every argument people have made against Episode IX, and debunk them as best as I can.

 

“THE LAST JEDI DIVIDED THE FANDOM”: Okay. It’s not like Star Wars has faced divisive features before. Attack of the Clones garnered just as bad or arguably even worse response than Last Jedi. Revenge of the Sith still saw an increase. Why can’t Epsiode IX?

 

“SOLO BOMBED”: Okay. That sucks. But even a lot of diehard Star Wars fans weren’t interested in this movie. I think it’s fair to say more Star Wars fans are interested in seeing the conclusion of the Skywalker saga than an inconsequential spin-off. Also helps that Solo was largely regarded as decent amongst the Star Wars community, so it’s not like it’s two poorly-received movies in a row.

 

“THERE’S TOO MUCH STAR WARS”: I agree. The good thing is the longer gap here. This has the largest gap out of any Star Wars movie at 19 months. It’s enough of a wait that audiences will likely be more than happy to see another Star Wars movie again. Absence makes the heart grow fonder.

 

“THERE’S NO HOOK”: Oh I’m sorry. Did you read the script? Have you been told what the exact plot is going to be? Because at this point, you can’t make that argument. Nobody knows what the plot is going to be, so you can’t make that argument yet.

 

Besides, there already is a hook. The film’s press releases are pushing itself as the finale of the Skywalker Saga. That’s huge. It’s implying that the film will position itself as a grand finale that will conclude 8 other movies and be the last hurrah for many of the older characters. Even if people were jaded by Last Jedi, wouldn’t most, if not all Star Wars fans be interested to see how the series they love end? Again, these same people were more than willing to go see Revenge of the Sith after not one, but two divisive movies. Why would that not be the case for IX?

 

“WELL THERE’S BOYCOTTS ONLINE”: Yeah, from a very, very, very tiny minority of people. Perhaps you should get off of message boards once in a while and realize that in the real world, nobody gives that much of a shit about Star Wars. Most people, whether they be the GA or even fans of the property, don’t care about Snoke’s backstory or Rey’s parents or whatever. The second that trailers and marketing drop and lightsabers get thrown about, 99% of people are going to be excited over what they see and not give a shit about a bunch of dumb fan theories.

 

“THERE’S SO MUCH COMPETITION” Is there though? I mean yeah, there’s plenty of other December movies hogging for attention. But out of all of the periods of time where movies are able to coexist and see massive success, it’s December. And even then, the competition seems decent, but not as strong as what Last Jedi faced. Little Women, Cats and Superintelligence aren’t even going for the same audience as IX, and while these will likely all do fine, I have my doubts that any one of them will gross more than Greatest Showman. Call of the Wild will try to siphon off the family crowd, but it’s debatable how much the film will make. Hell, it’s going to be a Disney production by the end of the year anyway, so it’ll either move or get little attention from the Mouse House. The only true direct competitor is Jumanji, and even then it’s not going to be that difficult. Jumanji is coming out the week before, meaning it will automatically lose large auditoriums and suffer a big second weekend drop. I mean, aren’t we all predicting the next Jumanji movie to see a big drop anyway? How will it hurt IX that much more?

 

“JUMANJI WILL OPEN BIG SO PEOPLE WON'T WANT TO SEE ANOTHER BIG MOVIE A WEEK LATER” Jurassic World and Inside Out prove that two massive openers back-to-back can happen if interest and hype is there. Why can’t it be done again?

 

“YOU’RE JUST BIASED BECAUSE YOU LIKE THE LAST JEDI” And that doesn’t apply to the other way around with you? Okay.

 

So TL;DR IX will be the biggest movie of the year. The finale factor and decent month gap will benefit it. Competition will be decent, but it will co-exist fine with the other movies. Normal people don't give a shit about dumbass fan theories. All hail Abrams!

 

215/665 (3.09x)

 

P. S. Before anyone goes after me over how I’m going “too far” for my “fuck off and die in a fire” line, me stating this one time is nothing compared to the onslaught of negativity and vitriol spewed towards Last Jedi from people on this forum for an entire year, to the point where it caused many valuable posters on this site to either leave or barely post anymore. And you know damn well this will go strong throughout 2019. Perhaps you should be more mad at the deliberate trolls who have made this place unbearable than me being righteously angry at a bunch of manbabies. Just sayin’.

 

Edited January 6, 2019 by CoolEric258

[CJohn]

Episode 9 is going under Rogue One. Book it.

 

Jumanji 2 is going under Night at the Museum. Book it.

Edited January 6, 2019 by CJohn

[reddevil19]

Well, I skimmed over your rant to see the actual prediction and...that actually looks reasonable. I thought you'd be going like 750+ the way you started.

[Eric Duncan]

December 25

The Call of the Wild: Having Chris Sanders (Lilo & Stitch, How to Train Your Dragon) should lead to high quality. The cast is pretty solid as well. Not a monster hit, but a decent performer that should play well with families and general audiences. 9 (OD)/105

 

Little Women: CHALABAE IS HERE WITH A NEW CHRISTMAS CLASSIC. *ahem* Anyways, this has a lot of good things going for it. It’s got a stellar cast, a great director fresh off an Oscar nomination, and a perfect release date. There’s also a lot of broad appeal here. Film buffs will be excited for Gerwig’s follow-up to Lady Bird, general audiences will be excited to see a new retelling of an iconic story, and a likely PG rating will bring in family appeal. Just has a lot going for it, especially if it garners Oscar buzz. 13 (OD)/165

 

Superintelligence: Another McCarthy-Falcone production? Hmmm... James Corden’s in the cast too? Ugh. But I don’t think this will be any sort of Father Figures-type dud. McCarthy might not be as big as she once was, but she still has her fans, and The Kitchen could help if that turns out to be a hit. But yeah, this seems like the lowest-grossing release out of all of the December movies currently slated. 6 (OD)/55

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, TMP said:

 

Holy shit. 

[MrGlass2]

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

P. S. Before anyone goes after me over how I’m going “too far” for my “fuck off and die in a fire” line, me stating this one time is nothing compared to the onslaught of negativity and vitriol spewed towards Last Jedi from people on this forum for an entire year, to the point where it caused many valuable posters on this site to either leave or barely post anymore. And you know damn well this will go strong throughout 2019. Perhaps you should be more mad at the deliberate trolls who have made this place unbearable than me being righteously angry at a bunch of manbabies. Just sayin’.

 

[John Marston]

Episode 9 will make sub 600m and make less than Aquaman worldwide 

[TMP]

how does a movie as harmless as star wars rile up so many people lmao

[reddevil19]

Just now, TMP said:

how does a movie as harmless as star wars rile up so many people lmao

No project with a huge and very passionate fanbase will ever truly be harmless.

[YM!]

Just now, reddevil19 said:

No project with a huge and very passionate fanbase will ever truly be harmless.

Pokémon. The worst you get is the occasionally Rule 34 fanart.

[John Marston]

11 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Episode 9 is going under Rogue One. Book it.

 

Jumanji 2 is going under Night at the Museum. Book it.

 

 

First one is likely. Jumanji 2 can still make over 300m though I feel 

[grim22]

13 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Episode 9 is going under Rogue One. Book it.

 

Jumanji 2 is going under Night at the Museum. Book it.

I don't think it goes below Rogue One domestic but OS below Rogue One has a really good chance of happening. Will probably go O/U 600 domestic.

[filmlover]

Little Women will be big indeed. $150M+ doesn’t sound that far-fetched at all.

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Pokémon. The worst you get is the occasionally Rule 34 fanart.

What about the pika-porn? You telling me that's harmless? Is that what you're saying, Janet?

 

*I assume there's pika-porn...Never checked 

[Legion Again]

Well I’m personally a lot lower on IX, but I don’t know if we neeeded all that text to justify a 7% increase from TLJ. I will be quite surprised if the #1 movie of the year is only at 665 though.

[reddevil19]

11 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I will be quite surprised if the #1 movie of the year is only at 665 though.

What a time we live in...