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CoolEric258

WrathofHan and CoolEric's Controversial* Predictions of 2019 (*Controversial results may vary)

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On 1/6/2019 at 7:46 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Star Wars: Episode IX: So about my tease from yesterday. Yes, I do not think this will be in the top five of 2019. Star Wars is at an all time low in brand recognition between The Last Jedi’s divisiveness (this isn’t limited to online; the legs reflect this) and Solo’s unfortunate floppage. A lot needs to be done to regain many’s trust in the series, and without knowledge of what will happen in this film, it is impossible to say where it could land. I think the best case scenario is insane WOM that brings legs close to 600M, but I am expecting WOM somewhere between TLJ and TFA. That might not be enough to get this over Rogue One or even 500M, but it would help future installments out. So yeah. Anyone who knows where this will land at the moment is talking out of their ass, so here’s a hot take: 160/480 (3x)

 

Idk what the worst prediction is, this or his Pika Pika one.....

 

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On 12/25/2018 at 10:18 PM, Tele Dondarrion said:

Hot take: GLASS will be lucky to do half of Han’s prediction. 

 

On 12/26/2018 at 4:56 AM, CJohn said:

After is gonna make 100M and Aviron will greenlight all the sequels to shoot back to back. You heard it here first.

 

On 12/27/2018 at 10:48 AM, A Panda of Ice and Fire said:

That Us prediction is bad.  It’s going over 250m DOM.

 

On 12/27/2018 at 11:00 AM, Napoleon said:

You guys like to set yourselves for disappointment. First Mary Poppins was gonna make $500 million this December, now expecting the same for cheap Wonder Woman cosplay. If it passes $200 million it will be great for a movie Marvel was basically forced to make, yet you will be calling it a flop.

 

On 12/28/2018 at 10:15 AM, JGAR4LIFE said:

That Shazam DOM total seems a bit low. Should reach $300M and finish around there.

 

On 12/28/2018 at 11:08 AM, TMP said:

y'all too low on Shazam. If Aquaman, a movie with laser sharks and designs tailor made just for China, is gonna do $300m then Shazam - which looks as fresh as Raimi's Spider-Man did in 2002 - is gonna do the same 

Only @Tele Dondarrion's hot take came even close to being right.  Remarkable. :lol:

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I had no idea I was already in the After train in December lmao

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Posted (edited)

Skipped some small movies, because damn there are way too many.

Escape room— Han: 12/30, Eric 12/28, actuals: 18/57. WIN: Han

Upside — Han:10/40, Eric: 18/58, actuals: 20/108 WIN: Eric  

Glass — Han: 75/240, Eric 55/170, actuals: 40/111. WIN: Eric  

LM2 —  Han:55/170 ,Eric: 55/170, actuals: 34/105. WIN: I better not see any more 55/170s from y’all

Alita — Han:15/70 , Eric:35/110, actuals: 28/85.5. WIN: Han (first time actuals are between, which is nice to see)

HTTYD3 — Han:40/130 , Eric: 43/145, estimate: 55/163. WIN: Eric   

CM — Han:170/510, Eric: 130/355, estimate: 153/425. WIN: strictly speaking this is inconclusive still. Han needs 432.5+ to win, which does not look favored. Near tie either way.   

US — Han:60/165, Eric:80/250, estimate:71/176. WIN: Han  

Dumbo — Han: 60/200, Eric:60/205, estimate: 46/112. WIN:Han  

Shazam — Han:80/260, Eric:80/240, estimate:53/145. WIN: Eric  

Spoiler

Endgame — Han:280/715, Eric:270/635, personal estimate:290/740. WIN: soon to be Han ;) 

 

Leaving CM as uncalled, score of 4-4. A lot of big misses, what does this mean? Does it mean that Han and Eric are bad at prediction?    

 

NO! It means that a lot of movies come out each year, and prediction is really hard. Always good to keep in mind how large the true range of possibilities is for movies far away.      

 

And I’d like to thank WrathofHan and CoolEric for providing such comprehensive predictions+thoughts. They (and the comments in respond) are fun to look back on in retrospect, without judgement. 

Edited by Thanos Legion
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On 12/27/2018 at 4:24 PM, WrathOfHan said:

 

March 15

 

Us:   60/165 (2.75x)

Almost. 

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1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

 

 

 

 

 

Only @Tele Dondarrion's hot take came even close to being right.  Remarkable. :lol:

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

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On 12/28/2018 at 1:49 PM, CoolEric258 said:

April 26

 

Avengers: Endgame: We’re finally at the big one. The big kahuna. So Infinity War smashed all expectations, became a massive event, everyone liked it, yadda yadda yadda. After that massive cliffhanger, everyone will want to come back to see how the characters will return, who will end up dead, and see what is essentially the culmination of the past 11 years of MCU goodness. The trailer’s already broken Infinity War’s record, and has a great pull on giving viewers just enough of a taste of what’s to come. The only real hurdle is whether this movie will deliver a satisfying ending. But at this point, creatively, Marvel has earned my trust.

 

However, and I know this is going to get me lynched, but I think Endgame will gross less than Infinity War. Infinity War really played up itself as the big finale, and I don’t think they can recreate the same marketing tactics as that film. The teaser’s more melancholy tone’s certainly effective. But it’s not gonna make general audiences hyped. Maybe trailer 2 will show off the spectacle and the goods, but I still don't think it'll be enough, considering how high Infinity War went. It also doesn’t help that the competition comes earlier. Remember, Infinity War had three weeks all to itself. And while it wasn’t the main reason for its solid legs, I’d be lying if I said I thought it didn't impact its performance and legs a little bit. With Detective Pikachu on the 10th, it only has two. That means something.

 

Also I just think it’ll be more frontloaded. This has a much larger finale factor, which can lead to a huge opening weekend rush, and a massive decline in the coming weeks. And I doubt the ending is going to be so shocking people will tell their non-MCU obsessed friends to check it out like they did with Infinity War.

 

It’ll still do very well though, and is guaranteed a spot in the top three biggest DOM grossers this year. But will it be #1 of the year? Let’s just wait and see. ;) 270/635 (2.35x)

Wow, this guy's a dumbass.

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I feel bad for all the Pika Pika stans (and the stans for every other movie who thought they stood a chance at damaging Endgame, really) right now.

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On 4/27/2019 at 9:55 PM, filmlover said:

I feel bad for all the Pika Pika stans (and the stans for every other movie who thought they stood a chance at damaging Endgame, really) right now.

Lets wait until the movie actually opens first.

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On 12/29/2018 at 9:22 AM, CoolEric258 said:

May 10

Detective Pikachu:  140/390 (2.78x)

Would you believe this was actually my DOM/WW prediction? :sparta:

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On 12/26/2018 at 4:16 PM, TMP said:

hot takes

captain marvel < $250m dom

shazam > $400m dom

ep 9 under a billion ww

aladdin & dumbo< $150m dom each

toy story 4 < $300m dom

 

 

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3 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

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So far he's nailed Dumbo at least 😛 

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On 12/29/2018 at 6:22 AM, CoolEric258 said:

May 10

Detective Pikachu: Okay, okay. I was wrong. I said when the first trailer dropped this movie's run would end in the 100s. But now it’ll probably open in the 100s. The hype for this is real. People love the trailer, they’re excited to see Pokemon in live-action, they love the crazy idea, they love them some good ol’ Pika Pika. Fans will probably love it, the kids will eat it up, even people not into Pokemon might just check it out for FOMO purposes. Nostalgia’s also a helluva drug. This won’t do the absurdly high predicts people have sprung about, but this will still be very impressive and probably WB’s biggest movie this year. 140/390 (2.78x)

 

The Hustle: Initially slated to come out last year, there is a scenario where it’s a decent enough offering for Mother’s Day, but I don’t really see this catching on. The director is unproven, the writer wrote Olaf’s Frozen Adventure, and even with two talented actresses, I don’t see why people will care about this one considering all of the other counterprogramming options. 15/45 (3x)

 

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Just now, baumer said:

 

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Again, that was actually my DOM/WW prediction all along. :sparta:

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On 12/29/2018 at 6:33 AM, WrathOfHan said:

 

May 10

 

The Hustle: Without a trailer, it is hard to judge how big this could be, but opening on Mother’s Day Weekend is a good sign for its box office potential. Life of the Party and Snatched are probably the best comparisons for this. If the movie is actually good unlike those two, I can see it going over 20M for its OW and legging it out. However, given the movie was delayed a year, I am skeptical of its quality. 18/45 (2.5x)

 

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu: PIKA PIKA MOTHERFUCKERS! Talk about having no expectations for this film to being very anticipated for it. The trailer is so much fun, and the CGI Pokémon look fantastic. The internet and audiences agree based on its trailer views and anecdotal evidence from seeing the trailer in theaters. People are nuts to doubt the power the brand has. The games always sell well for Nintendo’s systems, and Pokémon Go dominated Summer 2016. In fact, maybe Pikachu can dominate Summer 2019 if we exclude Endgame. Brace yourselves. 220/660 (3x)

 

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3 minutes ago, baumer said:

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu: PIKA PIKA MOTHERFUCKERS! Talk about having no expectations for this film to being very anticipated for it. The trailer is so much fun, and the CGI Pokémon look fantastic. The internet and audiences agree based on its trailer views and anecdotal evidence from seeing the trailer in theaters. People are nuts to doubt the power the brand has. The games always sell well for Nintendo’s systems, and Pokémon Go dominated Summer 2016. In fact, maybe Pikachu can dominate Summer 2019 if we exclude Endgame. Brace yourselves. 220/660 (3x)

 

I find hard to believe that people actually believed this movie was going to get anywhere near these numbers. Clearly they did, though. 

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Wow, sorry for having a bad prediction 6 months ago. I'm sure when the next big tentpole underperforms, I'll quote every single over-prediction for it too.

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2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Again, that was actually my DOM/WW prediction all along. :sparta:

He's not lying @baumer, I found the receipts:

On 11/12/2018 at 1:14 PM, CoolEric258 said:

The meltdowns when this only does around 185M DOM/675M WW are going to be glorious

(got your back CoolEric258 ;))

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