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Eric Atreides

WrathofHan and CoolEric's Controversial* Predictions of 2019 (*Controversial results may vary)

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February 14

 

Alita: Battle Angel: ……Hi Jimbo. By now, we all know what this movie is and the various delays it has had, so I will get right to the point. Alita’s biggest issue is, well, the release date changes. Audiences have been getting this trailer for over a year now, and there is a strong chance many will assume it already released by the time it hits in February because the Christmas date was kept for a while. This year+ long marketing was not a creative choice by Fox or the filmmakers, and it is not being treated like an event. I think this will outgross Ghost in the Shell and Valerian regardless of its quality, but if it wants to sniff 100M, reviews need to be great. I am optimistic on the film’s quality, but these delays have really hurt buzz. 15/20/70 (4.67x from 3 day/3.5x from 4 day)

 

Happy Death Day 2U: GO SHAWTY! Happy Death Day was a fun romp for Halloween in 2017, and the sequel looks to ramp up the insanity tenfold. The trailer being attached exclusively to Halloween for an entire month helped build buzz, and this will be a popular choice for Valentine’s Day couples. That said, I doubt this increases much from the first. Happy Death Day has not gained a big following on home media and cable, and it is hard to imagine anyone who was not interested in the first seeing this one. It will increase thanks to goodwill, but it will gross close to the original. 25/32/70 (2.67x from 3 day/2.19x from 4 day)

 

Isn’t It Romantic?: As I mentioned in What Men Want’s writeup, this will be a big draw for Valentine’s Day. The trailer has amassed nearly 9M views on Warner’s channel, and Rebel Wilson has not been in a non-Pitch Perfect film since 2016’s How to Be Single. She is still the person most people remember from that franchise, which will bring goodwill over here. I actually had no idea the trailer had that many views until just now, so that bodes very well. There may be some Valentine’s frontloading, but good WOM can bring this over 60-70M. 17/22/66 (3.88x from 3 day/3x from 4 day)

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February 22

 

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World: This is going to be another Kung Fu Panda 3 when it comes to the box office. HTTYD2 was one of the forum’s most overpredicted films ever and dropped from its predecessor like KFP2 did. One of the biggest things going against the film is its competition. It is sandwiched right betweenLEGO and Wonder Park in addition to Captain Marvel, so audiences have options. The trailer has been playing since June, which may or may not help. I don’t know. This just doesn’t feel like something audiences care about anymore. 40/130 (3.25x)

 

The Rhythm Section: This is clearly getting delayed at this point, so I will keep it short. I think Blake Lively can draw in a decent sized audience after A Simple Favor, but without a new release date, I have no idea what it could make. Maybe 40M or so?13/40 (3x)

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26 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Higher then Ghost In The Shell? Big doubt.

I'm pretty certain it will go higher than GHOST IN THE SHELL. I don't think it'll be anything special, but quality and the James Cameron name should sell it better.

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Just now, JB33 said:

I'm pretty certain it will go higher than GHOST IN THE SHELL. I don't think it'll be anything special, but quality and the James Cameron name should sell it better.

Most people don't think it looks good, the James Cameron name might bring in a few people but enough to go over GiTS? I'm not convinced. I mean look at Peter Jackson with Mortal Engines.

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1 minute ago, Mulder said:

I still think 70 is too high for Alita. Ghost in The Shell had way more name recognition as a property compared to Alita and it's initial reception was better even with the white washing arguments.

 

What initial reception for ALITA? It hasn’t been released, you can’t make that sort of direct comparison (yet).

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Just now, Telemachos said:

 

What initial reception for ALITA? It hasn’t been released, you can’t make that sort of direct comparison (yet).

I meant trailers wise. A lot more people were excited and intrigued by GiTS' trailers then by Alita's trailers.

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1 minute ago, Mulder said:

I meant trailers wise. A lot more people were excited and intrigued by GiTS' trailers then by Alita's trailers.

 

Which people? I think this just tends to define what sort of circles you hang out in (online and IRL). tbf, no one in my general circles was excited or intrigued by either. 

 

You’re right that it needs good reviews and reception to have a decent run, though. 

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Just now, Telemachos said:

 

Which people? I think this just tends to define what sort of circles you hang out in (online and IRL). tbf, no one in my general circles was excited or intrigued by either. 

 

You’re right that it needs good reviews and reception to have a decent run, though. 

It wasn't by a lot, but a decent few people I followed on social media had hopes that GiTS would be "The good one" in terms of anime adaptations, even though my friends circle was pretty bleh on it from the start. I haven't seen that from Alita and I think it's a mix of the property being almost entirely forgotten by the current generation of anime fans ((Which doesn't doom the movie, it just doesn't have a huge built-in base that even GiTS had more of)) and it just not looking that appealing in my opinion.

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10 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Most people don't think it looks good, the James Cameron name might bring in a few people but enough to go over GiTS? I'm not convinced. I mean look at Peter Jackson with Mortal Engines.

True. I guess at the end of the day I'm just saying if I were a betting man I'd say Alita will come out ahead. 

 

Just double checked the total domestic gross of GiTS. $40.6M. Yeah, I'm pretty sure Alita will easily do better. Just my 2 cents.

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