Weekend Thread 12/28-12/30 AQM 51.5 MPR 28 BB 20.5 ITSV 18.3

[AdamKendall]

On 12/28/2018 at 4:01 PM, Jiffy said:

Will we be getting any early Friday numbers today?

 

https://variety.com/2018/film/news/aquaman-box-office-second-weekedn-mary-poppins-vice-1203096372/

 

AQM - 53

MPR - 33

BB - 20

ITSV - 20

Edited December 30, 2018 by AdamKendall

[AdamKendall]

THR seeing less for everything.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/weekend-box-office-aquaman-eyes-47m-mary-poppins-holds-at-no-2-1171927

 

AQM - 15.5/47+

MPR -no # but say 25-30

BB & ITSV - 19-20

Edited December 28, 2018 by AdamKendall

[Jay Beezy]

2 minutes ago, AdamKendall said:

THR seeing less for everything.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/weekend-box-office-aquaman-eyes-47m-mary-poppins-holds-at-no-2-1171927

 

AQM - 15.5/47+

MPR -no # but say 25-30

BB & ITSV - 19-20

Except Vice at 8.5, putting it over Holmes and Watson.

[TalismanRing]

14 minutes ago, AdamKendall said:

THR seeing less for everything.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/weekend-box-office-aquaman-eyes-47m-mary-poppins-holds-at-no-2-1171927

 

AQM - 15.5/47+

MPR -no # but say 25-30

BB & ITSV - 19-20

Only has Friday numbers (early) for AQM - everything else looks like an earlier w/e prediction

 

 

[xxoo]

 

[VTKajin]

Hope AQ does the higher end of estimates or surpasses them. Maybe an $18M Friday. 

[Krissykins]

These Christmas releases can’t compare to Netflix’s BIRD BOX, which had 45,037,125 accounts view it in it’s first seven days. Accounts, which I’m guessing a large portion are 2 or more people. That’s crazy! 

 

45m! 

 

And the film is excellent. Easily in my top 10 of the year btw. 

Edited December 29, 2018 by Krissykins

[stephanos13]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

These Christmas releases can’t compare to Netflix’s BIRD BOX, which had 45,037,125 accounts view it in it’s first seven days. Accounts, which I’m guessing a large portion are 2 or more people. That’s crazy! 

 

45m! 

 

And the film is excellent. Easily in my top 10 of the year btw. 

Not comparable!

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

Not comparable!

Still, more people have seen the film. 

[Jiffy]

Netflix and their selective transparency earns my side-eye, but even half those numbers would be phenomenal.

[stephanos13]

24 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Still, more people have seen the film. 

No they have not.

If you want to compare them let's do it. The numbers Netflix released are worldwide numbers. Aquaman is at $630M WW already. If you take a hypothetical average global ticket price at $10. Which movie has been seen by more people? Aquaman!

[Legion Again]

The last time we had a Dec 28-30 weekend was 2012, when the top 10 were: 

Hobbit:AUJ — 31.9M — week 3 — 3.55x wknd multi

Django        — 30.1M — Xmas release — 4.3x 

Les Miserables — 27.3M — Xmas release — 4x 

Parental Guidance — 14.6M — Xmas — 4.3x

Jack Reacher — 13.6M — week 2 — 3.64x

This is 40 — 12.5M — week 2 — 3.49x

Lincoln — 7.3M — week 8 — 7.86x

The Guilt Trip — 6.5M — week 2 — 3.47x

Monsters Inc (3D) — 6.4M — week 2 — 3.4x

Rise of the Guardians — 4.9M — week 6 — 3.71x

 

and before that was 2007:  

Spoiler

National Treasure 2 — 35.7M — week 2 — 3.69x

Alvin & Chipmunks — 29M — week 3 — 3.62x

I am Legend — 27.4M — week 3 — 3.26x

Charlie Wilson’s War — 12M — week 2 — 3.66x

Juno — 10.6M — week 4 — Xmas expansion — 12x*

AvP:requiem — 10.1M — Xmas release — 2.49x

PS I love you — 9.3M — week 2 — 4.24x

The Water Horse — 9.2M — Xmas — 3.63x

Sweeney Todd — 8.2M — week 2 — 4.17x

Enchanted — 6.4M — week 6 — 3.68x

 

*Juno expanded from 1000 this weekend to 2000-2500 in January

So trimming the high outliers of Juno and Lincoln and the low outliers of AvP:Requiem and I am Legend, we get a multiplier range of 3.4-4.3x      

[Legion Again]

Using 50, 30, 20, 20 weekends, that would suggest totals of:

AQM 137+50*[3.4,4.3]=307-352

MPR 71+30*[3.4,4.3]=179-206

ItSV 85+20*[3.4,4.3]=153-171

BB 46+20*[3.4,4.3]=114-132

 

I personally would not be surprised to see MPR or Spiderverse go above 4.3 multis from the weekend though. 

[VTKajin]

10 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

The last time we had a Dec 28-30 weekend was 2012, when the top 10 were: 

Hobbit:AUJ — 31.9M — week 3 — 3.55x wknd multi

Django        — 30.1M — Xmas release — 4.3x 

Les Miserables — 27.3M — Xmas release — 4x 

Parental Guidance — 14.6M — Xmas — 4.3x

Jack Reacher — 13.6M — week 2 — 3.64x

This is 40 — 12.5M — week 2 — 3.49x

Lincoln — 7.3M — week 8 — 7.86x

The Guilt Trip — 6.5M — week 2 — 3.47x

Monsters Inc (3D) — 6.4M — week 2 — 3.4x

Rise of the Guardians — 4.9M — week 6 — 3.71x

 

and before that was 2007:  

  Hide contents

National Treasure 2 — 35.7M — week 2 — 3.69x

Alvin & Chipmunks — 29M — week 3 — 3.62x

I am Legend — 27.4M — week 3 — 3.26x

Charlie Wilson’s War — 12M — week 2 — 3.66x

Juno — 10.6M — week 4 — Xmas expansion — 12x*

AvP:requiem — 10.1M — Xmas release — 2.49x

PS I love you — 9.3M — week 2 — 4.24x

The Water Horse — 9.2M — Xmas — 3.63x

Sweeney Todd — 8.2M — week 2 — 4.17x

Enchanted — 6.4M — week 6 — 3.68x

 

*Juno expanded from 1000 this weekend to 2000-2500 in January

So trimming the high outliers of Juno and Lincoln and the low outliers of AvP:Requiem and I am Legend, we get a multiplier range of 3.4-4.3x      

What multipliers are these?

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, VTKajin said:

What multipliers are these?

The multiplier off of the weekend. For instance, An Unexpected Journey made 113.3M from the weekend and beyond, 3.55x its gross from the weekend.

Edited December 29, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[VTKajin]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

The multiplier off of the weekend. For instance, An Unexpected Journey made 113.3M from the weekend and beyond, 3.55x its gross from the weekend.

Got it. Interesting stats.

 

3.6-3.7x for Aquaman is my guess. If the weekend is $54M then we could see $332-337M total.

Edited December 29, 2018 by VTKajin

[Mulder]

Also I think there's a big difference between people watching something that's just rolled into their streaming service they run into while in bed or on the couch and actually going out and paying to see something.

Edited December 29, 2018 by Mulder

[RichWS]

That Bird Box number is so great. Happy for Netflix. Good to see them succeeding.

[Webslinger]

42 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Also I think there's a big difference between people watching something that's just rolled into their streaming service they run into while in bed or on the couch and actually going out and paying to see something.

Agreed. I thought the same when Bright's viewership numbers grabbed headlines this time last year. As successful as that film was on Netflix, I get the feeling that a critically dumped-upon R-rated fantasy film would not have done nearly as well theatrically as the viewership extrapolation suggested, irrespective of whatever drawing power Will Smith has left.

 

I haven't seen Bird Box yet, but I'll get around to it eventually. It's the end of the month, so soon-to-expire movies are higher on my queue. 

Edited December 29, 2018 by Webslinger

[Johnny Tran]

It's a great number but truthfully I think Bird Box will have chicken legs.