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Best Picture Predictions - 2019

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I think Disney will push EG for a nom. I'm not confident they can get it, but they will make the LOTR argument with this being the culmination of 11 years worth of movies. $3B+ at BO will also help. Still though, Academy voters seem to have sticks up their butts this last decade, so likely a bunch of sub $50M grossers will end up getting nominated with 1 or 2 $200M DOM grossers thrown in, but no EG because a worldwide phenomenon isn't worthy of a BP nom.

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The petulance of people who have seen their precious funnybook nonsense become the literal and ever-growing center of pop culture, making ungodly amounts of money and dwarfing everything around it ever more, but refuse to be fulfilled until it also gets that Academy validation - at the expense of (oh no!!!) "sub 50m grossers", for some of which, in our current messed-up world, an Oscar nod is the only means of attracting attention that they deserve, and that is ultimately still just a sliver of the attention that any MCU movie gets in one day - does not cease to impress me.

 

What's additionally hilarious is the underlying implication behind this that the Academy that, at the most recent ceremony, showered Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther with the most awards, is just not mainstream-minded enough. 

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3 hours ago, Jonwo said:

I'll be curious  to see which of WB's fall dramas Motherless Brooklyn, Torrance and potentially Just Mercy will get the awards push. The Good Liar could sneak in there if it's good.

 

I can't see it being Torrance at the moment. Michael B. Jordan is working with Warner Bros. on hard-to-sell projects in the future, so a push for Just Mercy could make for a good investment. Motherless Brooklyn seems like it could be good, but it sounds like it's a gangster film, and, in that case, The Irishman might steal its thunder.

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5 hours ago, Jonwo said:

I'll be curious  to see which of WB's fall dramas Motherless Brooklyn, Torrance and potentially Just Mercy will get the awards push. The Good Liar could sneak in there if it's good.

Honestly looking at their slate it wouldn't be surprising if this is another 2016 where they sit out of the race because they have nothing.

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Right now The good liar is WB best bet for this year awards season, IMO

 

I agree Endgame is a longshot for BP, despite the BO phenomenom, but I wouldn't rule out a nom due to its cultural relevance. Oscars are not that closed to recognize praised phenomenoms like this. In an expanded field we would have possibly seen nominations for TDK and even POTC. Even Force Awakens was sooooo close to a nom.

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2 hours ago, stripe said:

Right now The good liar is WB best bet for this year awards season, IMO

 

I agree Endgame is a longshot for BP, despite the BO phenomenom, but I wouldn't rule out a nom due to its cultural relevance. Oscars are not that closed to recognize praised phenomenoms like this. In an expanded field we would have possibly seen nominations for TDK and even POTC. Even Force Awakens was sooooo close to a nom.

The Academy tends to not recognize franchises that they previously haven't shown much love for (again, see: Harry Potter). Take out Black Panther (which was obviously an anomaly) and the MCU has received only a grand total of 11 nominations across 19 movies...and only 2 of those nominations were outside of the Visual Effects category.

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If the Oscars were today I would go for Long Shot for best original screenplay. It ain't gonne happen irl, but it should. Damn that movie was good.

 

I don't think EG has any real shot at a BP nom. The most it can hope for outside of technical nominations is an RDJ acting nom. Not sure how hard Disney is going to want to push that, but there seems to be real hype surrounding that at least at the moment. 

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On 4/28/2019 at 6:57 AM, Jake Gittes said:
 
 
 
 
 
 
5
On 4/28/2019 at 6:57 AM, Jake Gittes said:

The petulance of people who have seen their precious funnybook nonsense become the literal and ever-growing center of pop culture, making ungodly amounts of money and dwarfing everything around it ever more, but refuse to be fulfilled until it also gets that Academy validation - at the expense of (oh no!!!) "sub 50m grossers", for some of which, in our current messed-up world, an Oscar nod is the only means of attracting attention that they deserve, and that is ultimately still just a sliver of the attention that any MCU movie gets in one day - does not cease to impress me.

 

What's additionally hilarious is the underlying implication behind this that the Academy that, at the most recent ceremony, showered Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther with the most awards, is just not mainstream-minded enough. 

 

So you call Comic book movies funny book nonsense...

 

and the same critics usually have given higher scores to the funny book movies than many of the Oscar-nominated films...

 

So either you are the enlighten film fans and we are all simple-minded idiots or the reality is that people with your mindset are rather out of touch and more like this...

 

91sn32Q.jpg

 

 

I can understand not being a fan of comic book movies but to call them nonsense and a reason why this world is fucked up is rather elitist, snobbish and idiotic. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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8 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Maybe those films dont get much attention as they are not that good in the first place? 

 

 

 

On 4/28/2019 at 3:57 PM, Jake Gittes said:

attention that they deserve

did I stutter?

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16 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:
 
 
 
6 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

did I stutter?

 

 

 

 

What does calling MCU films funny book nonsense have to do with films you like need more praise? 

 

 

That is the argument i don't understand... 

 

Like if you call films I like funny books nonsense, and I say maybe those films that you like don't get much praise as they are not good in the first place...

 

That status quo ante bellum ? lol ? 

 

Like your not furthering what you believe in any way.

 

Like your point about the Oscars should maybe focus on smaller films to bring attention is valid. 

 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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48 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

 

 

What does calling MCU films funny book nonsense have to do with films you like need more praise? 

 

 

That is the argument i don't understand... 

 

Like if you call films I like funny books nonsense, and I say maybe those films that you like don't get much praise as they are not good in the first place...

 

That status quo ante bellum ? lol ? 

 

Like your not furthering what you believe in any way.

 

Like your point about the Oscars should maybe focus on smaller films to bring attention is valid. 

 

I like a bunch of MCU movies myself, to say nothing of other CBMs and blockbusters. (Spider-Verse would have been a more deserving Best Picture nominee than 7 out of 8 movies that did actually get nominated this year. Ditto TDK, Spider-Man 2, etc.) I still think calling them funny book nonsense is fair, because that's the mode they mostly operate in, whether they do it well or not. And the original comment I replied to said nothing about smaller films getting undeserved praise, it just referred disparagingly to "sub 50m grossers" as if that gross determined all those movies' worth, making them automatically less deserving of a nomination than Endgame (which, like every other MCU movie before it, never had to fight to get attention/audience). This is what I objected to.

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32 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:
 
 
 
2
23 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

I like a bunch of MCU movies myself, to say nothing of other CBMs and blockbusters. (Spider-Verse would have been a more deserving Best Picture nominee than 7 out of 8 movies that did actually get nominated this year. Ditto TDK, Spider-Man 2, etc.) I still think calling them funny book nonsense is fair, because that's the mode they mostly operate in, whether they do it well or not. And the original comment I replied to said nothing about smaller films getting undeserved praise, it just referred disparagingly to "sub 50m grossers" as if that gross determined all those movies' worth, making them automatically less deserving of a nomination than Endgame (which, like every other MCU movie before it, never had to fight to get attention/audience). This is what I objected to.

They fought by telling a compelling story 11 years which will go down as a cinematic achievement whether you think so or not.

 

You do realize that happened the MCU started off with a well-loved critical and audience hit film called Iron man 1 and if that movie bombed, blockbuster filmmaking likely would be radically different right now.

 

The MCU makes it seem effortless now because they generated an insane amount of goodwill through serialized storytelling.

 

I know a lot film buffs hate serialized storytelling in the film but that is what people love these days. You call that 'something wrong with the world'

 

 

So calling MCU films funny book nonsense is not fair because forget about box office grosses, audience reception and critical scores for a lot of these funny book movies is far higher than a lot of these 'non funny book nonsense movies"

 

 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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5 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

And the original comment I replied to said nothing about smaller films getting undeserved praise, it just referred disparagingly to "sub 50m grossers" as if that gross determined all those movies' worth, making them automatically less deserving of a nomination than Endgame (which, like every other MCU movie before it, never had to fight to get attention/audience). This is what I objected to.

I mean we've had members here before take a stance of "you're irrelevant if you're not in spectacle movies" re: actors before so that shouldn't surprise anyone. I don't know how Oscar Winner Olivia Colman sleeps at night knowing that she doesn't have a valid career unless she appears in an MCU movie.

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On 5/10/2019 at 3:46 PM, filmlover said:

The Academy tends to not recognize franchises that they previously haven't shown much love for (again, see: Harry Potter). Take out Black Panther (which was obviously an anomaly) and the MCU has received only a grand total of 11 nominations across 19 movies...and only 2 of those nominations were outside of the Visual Effects category.

 

All the MCU is an anomaly, so who knows? Anyways, I wouldn't compare MCU to Potter. Different franchises. Different times. Different social impact.

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Possible new movies in the conversation:

 

booksmart. Praised film. It really needs to get noticed by GA

a hidden life. Newest film by Malick. Already seen at Cannes. Great reactions overall. He is back?

pain and glory. Also solid reactions at Cannes. AMPAS love Almodovar.

 

 

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23 minutes ago, stripe said:

Possible new movies in the conversation:

 

booksmart. Praised film. It really needs to get noticed by GA

a hidden life. Newest film by Malick. Already seen at Cannes. Great reactions overall. He is back?

pain and glory. Also solid reactions at Cannes. AMPAS love Almodovar.

 

 

 

I'm already rooting for A Hidden Life.

 

I'm also in the camp that's wishing for Antonio Banderas to get an Oscar nomination for Pain and Glory.

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My general takes on the race:

 

Hollywood has solidified itself as a strong contender in many categories. Dunno if it’ll come close to winning Picture/Director, but the three main actors are all towards the top of their categories.

A Hidden Life sounds accessible by Malick’s standards but also feels like the movie that would get the smallest push from Searchlight’s four main contenders. A gross higher than Tree of Life would probably help.

Taron Egerton can get in for Rocketman if the movie is still remembered. Sound cats and costume design also have strong nomination potential.

Endgame will end up with the token VFX nomination and lose to something else. All this BP talk.... lmao (and I love the movie!). 

John Wick’s going to be a top contender for both Sound categories. IMO it’ll basically come down to this, 1917, and Rocketman unless another blockbuster surprises. A cinematography nomination also wouldn’t surprise me because Lausten was just nominated for Shape of Water.

Will Parasite be Bong Joon Ho’s first nomination? Idk maybe.

The Lighthouse has potential if A24 pushes it properly. This and The Farewell are probably their top contenders.

Booksmart can get into Original Screenplay if there’s enough of a push.

 

uhhhh that’s about it I think. 

Edited by WrathOfHan
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