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Best Picture Predictions - 2019

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40 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I think Best Actor, Cinematography and  Best Adapted screenplay are in favour of Joker. Plus, the marketing has not been highlighting the DC brand, and 've been very award bodies' friendly with Sorcesese reference and Robert Deniro in the cast  

Cinematography's reaaaal competitive. Don't think Joker will break through, even with Lawrence Sher getting call outs in reviews, since The Lighthouse/OUATIH/The Irishman/1917 all have more chances of a nom. Ad Astra, A Hidden Life & The Aernonauts seem like likelier choices too.

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1 minute ago, TMP said:

Cinematography's reaaaal competitive. Don't think Joker will break through, even with Lawrence Sher getting call outs in reviews, since The Lighthouse/OUATIH/The Irishman/1917 all have more chances of a nom. Ad Astra, A Hidden Life & The Aernonauts seem like likelier choices too.

1917, OUATIH, The Irishman are likely. Other two spots are complete wild cards. I don't think any of the other nominees you mention are likely. 

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Right now I'll go ahead and predict:

 

1917

The Farewell

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Just Mercy

Little Women

Marriage Story

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

 

Noah Baumbach

Greta Gerwig

Bong Joon Ho

Martin Scorcese

Quentin Tarantino

 

Antonio Banderas

Adam Driver

Michael B. Jordan

Joaquin Phoenix

Adam Sandler

 

Cynthia Erivo

Scarlett Johansson

Charlize Theron

Alfre Woodard

Renee Zellweger

 

Jamie Foxx

Tom Hanks

Al Pacino

Brad Pitt

Taika Waititi

 

Annette Bening

Laura Dern

Anna Paquin

Meryl Streep

Shuzhen Zhou

 

The Farewell

Marriage Story

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

The Report

 

Irishman

Just Mercy

Jojo Rabbit

Laundromat

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

I don't know. The Academy hasn't given a shit about Asian cinema in about a decade. 

I feel like there hasn't really been an asian movie that's grabbed the American media's attention in about a decade. but Parasite is well positioned to do so. saw a few critics on twitter say that it was one of the most buzzed about movies at telluride, which is rare for a movie that premiered at Cannes months ago. they usually just like to buzz about the shiny new movies. feels like the kind of movie everyone likes so far, the hype train is real, bong is well respected, it's the foreign language film award frontrunner. idk, i've been predicting it for a best picture nom for a while now. i don't even think it's bottom of the pack it's somewhere in the middle.

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5 hours ago, Mr Pastaffelees said:

Right now I'll go ahead and predict:

 

1917

The Farewell

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Just Mercy

Little Women

Marriage Story

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

 

Noah Baumbach

Greta Gerwig

Bong Joon Ho

Martin Scorcese

Quentin Tarantino

 

Antonio Banderas

Adam Driver

Michael B. Jordan

Joaquin Phoenix

Adam Sandler

 

Cynthia Erivo

Scarlett Johansson

Charlize Theron

Alfre Woodard

Renee Zellweger

 

Jamie Foxx

Tom Hanks

Al Pacino

Brad Pitt

Taika Waititi

 

Annette Bening

Laura Dern

Anna Paquin

Meryl Streep

Shuzhen Zhou

 

The Farewell

Marriage Story

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

The Report

 

Irishman

Just Mercy

Jojo Rabbit

Laundromat

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

 

Picture

1917

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

The Farewell

The Irishman

Harriet

Marriage Story

Parasite

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

 

Director

Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

Lulu Wang, The Farewell

 

Actor

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

Robert De Niro, Irishman

Leonardo DiCaprio, Hollywood

Adam Driver, Marriage Story

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

 

Actress

Awkwafina, The Farewell

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts

Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

 

S Actor

Alan Alda, Marriage Story

Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari

Al Pacino, The Irishman

Brad Pitt, Hollywood

Tom Hanks, Beautiful Day

 

S Actress

Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit

Anna Paquin, The Irishman

Florence Pugh, Little Women

Suzhen Zhou, The Farewell

 

O Screenplay

Harriet

Marriage Story

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

The Farewell

 

A Screenplay

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Ford v Ferrari

Jojo Rabbit

The Irishman

Little Women

 

Editing

Farewell

Hollywood

Joker

Jojo Rabbit

Irishman

 

Cinematography

1917

Ad Astra

Hollywood

Irishman

The Lighthouse

 

Score

1917

Ad Astra

The Farewell

Jojo Rabbit

The Rise of Skywalker

 

Song

Breakthrough

Cats

Frozen 2

Rocketman

Wild Rose

 

Production Design

1917

Ad Astra

Cats

Irishman

Hollywood

 

Costume

Aeronauts

Harriet

Hollywood

Irishman

Little Women

 

Hair and Makeup

Cats

Joker

Irishman

 

S Editing

1917

Ad Astra

Endgame

Ford v Ferrari

Rise of Skywalker

 

S Mixing

1917

Ad Astra

Cats

Endgame

Rise of Skywalker

 

VFX

Ad Astra

Endgame

Irishman

The Lion King

Rise of Skywalker

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I'm not feeling good about Harriet. The trailer makes the film look a bit TV-quality. A good comparison for Harriet might end up being the Thurgood Marshall movie with Chadwick Boseman that bombed in 2017. Cynthia Erivo might still get in for Actress, but the chances for categories like Director and Original Screenplay are starting to wane a bit. I wouldn't want the film to get in for Original Screenplay anyway because there's a lot more eclectic choices that could take that spot.

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28 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

I'm not feeling good about Harriet. The trailer makes the film look a bit TV-quality. A good comparison for Harriet might end up being the Thurgood Marshall movie with Chadwick Boseman that bombed in 2017. Cynthia Erivo might still get in for Actress, but the chances for categories like Director and Original Screenplay are starting to wane a bit. I wouldn't want the film to get in for Original Screenplay anyway because there's a lot more eclectic choices that could take that spot.

I don't think anyone is surprised that Harriet is looking to be a lone Erivo nomination play at best.

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People also presumably know about Bong asking audiences not to reveal the story's surprises and that fuels curiosity. Anyway, yes, I think it's more likely to be nominated for picture than not, with director and screenplay also solid possibilities. 

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Definitely moving Bong into my Best Director lineup. Need to learn more about the movie to feel comfortable putting it in Picture - Academy has rejected seemingly sure thing foreign films before, but as of right now I would say it is definitely more likely than it is not.

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I still don't see Parasite breaking out of foreign film. The Academy doesn't view him the same way they view Alfonso Cuaron or Michael Haneke (and even then both those films had expensive marketing campaigns that I can't see Neon competing with). And both those films also had acting nominations which this one will not (Song Kang-Ho is the only actor who has a chance of getting nominated and those chances are slim with the Best Actor race being so tight this year).

 

This movie will do well as well as Shoplifters would have done if it didn't have to compete with Roma.

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I think one thing in Parasite's corner might be the deal Neon made with Hulu. Hulu's inclusion in that Disney+ deal means more people with access to Hulu (and subsequently Neon's film slate), more people who can watch Parasite in the comfort of their homes, and more people who are aware enough of Parasite to propel its chances. Maybe the movie won't be coming from theaters to Hulu fast enough for the nomination aspect, but it could be a boon for the film to win the foreign category, or maybe even another category. Does this theory hold water?

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2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I still don't see Parasite breaking out of foreign film. The Academy doesn't view him the same way they view Alfonso Cuaron or Michael Haneke (and even then both those films had expensive marketing campaigns that I can't see Neon competing with). And both those films also had acting nominations which this one will not (Song Kang-Ho is the only actor who has a chance of getting nominated and those chances are slim with the Best Actor race being so tight this year).

 

This movie will do well as well as Shoplifters would have done if it didn't have to compete with Roma.

I dunno Haneke strikes me as a good comparison. Like Haneke at the time of Amour, Bong's been making well-received movies for two decades and now he's made the one everyone including the Academy can get onboard with. And having seen it... it simply plays well, with an air of obvious accomplishment to it that can lead to healthy word-of-mouth and buzz among the Academy members as well. It doesn't need acting nods.

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10 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

I dunno Haneke strikes me as a good comparison. Like Haneke at the time of Amour, Bong's been making well-received movies for two decades and now he's made the one everyone including the Academy can get onboard with. And having seen it... it simply plays well, with an air of obvious accomplishment to it that can lead to healthy word-of-mouth and buzz among the Academy members as well. It doesn't need acting nods.

The White Ribbon had already had a nomination before that too though. The only other Bong Joon-ho film to have been submitted didn't get a nomination. And I don't know. Sony probably was able to afford a bigger and better awards campaign (so was Netflix and Miramax who distributed other foreign films that got into Best Picture). 

 

The movie certainly plays well and it will do really well in film critic circle awards ceremonies but so did Burning and The Handmaiden (didn't get submitted by Korea but other categories don't need the country to submit the film). I can only see it happen if Bong-hive can carry the film's boxoffice in the US and the movie has an healthy gross there.

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