Best Picture Predictions - 2019

[Barnack]

55 minutes ago, TMP said:

1917 over Irishman?!? Wtf

Not that far from each other by the odds maker at the moment, a Sam Mendes WW1 movie with that cast, those producer a studio release, Deakins filming, Newman scoring, that a lot going for it.

[filmlover]

Didn't 1917 begin shooting in like May? I doubt they would've fast-tracked it like that if they weren't confident in it being a winner on some level.

[titanic2187]

Maybe it is time to give Scorsese his 2nd directing oscar

[Valonqar]

Netflix's biggest Picture push atm is Marriage Story and I see no reason to dump it in favor of Irishman. So they are either going to get MS in or MS and Irishman. 

 

Popes may be just acting contender which is a lot considering that Netflix has 3 contenders for Actor categories from 3 movies. Doubtful they get all 3 in so someone has to fall off the wagon. 

 

I think that big thing with Irishman will be how it stacks up against Marty's most acclaimed mafia epics. if it doesn't reach the bar...well. It's 160M production. It needs boxoffice. And at least reviews saying it's as good as Googfellas or better. That's a lot of riding for the movie that people (over)predict on names involved alone. 

 

Also, movies are not dead for nomination just because they missed TIFF's top 3. 

Edited September 16, 2019 by Valonqar

[Ezen Baklattan]

The latter is true, but it seemed like this was the moment for Two Popes to catch fire, and I dont think it has. I've been wrong before though.

[Valonqar]

I think Popes can go either way as can any movie that didn't pop up in TIFF awards. after all, it's only 3 movies and there are 5-6 to fill the rest of spots. 

 

I also think that we are taking TIFF awards like we did critics response to movies. As if right now is how the race will be decided. It's far from over and all movies in contention have mileage to go including potential backlash (every movie suffers some degree and some kind of it, at least the "overrated, I don't get the hype" type). So whether something peaks too early while another, seemingly dead thing picks up the steam, will be seen in months to come.

 

Popes is still a strong play for actors especially Pryce who's playing an iconic figure, and the movie is supposedly a crowdpleaser (ugh, that word gets thrown around for everything ha ha).

 

I think that Director race will be the most interesting to watch cause Bong Jun-ho has a legit shot at it. supposedly his directing is brilliant. 

 

 

[CoolioD1]

if irishman is any kind of good that's Netflix's #1 push. they've sunk so much fucking money into that thing they're gonna wanna bring attention to it, they were advertising it at last year's oscars etc. two popes can probably still get nominated, it'll be bottom of the pack, but seems like the olds will like it, and let's not forget about the pact that anthony mccarten made with Satan that all of the movies he writes get nominated.

[Ezen Baklattan]

I was probably brash in my comment, I admit. Will have to see how Two Popes fared as more people see it. It'll need a lot for Netflix to give more push to it when they already have Marriage Story and The Irishman already. Could still see it play in actor (as you said) and screenplay.

[filmlover]

Sony getting three Best Picture nominees as many are currently predicting already seems like a high hill to climb so I'm skeptical about Netflix doing it.

[RealLyre]

I can see A Beautiful Day missing out on best pic 

[SLAM!]

1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

I can see A Beautiful Day missing out on best pic 

 

Me too, if I'm being honest. Word on the film has dissipated since TIFF. People's Choice was the place to solidify itself as a contender and it didn't deliver. In the style of Steve Jobs (2015) and First Man and Widows, it's now all up to the Box Office. Let's not forget that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Little Women both have the potential to be much splashier.

[filmlover]

I thought A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood would be a Wonder level hit when the trailer first was released but it does feel like buzz has died down from that initial response. Thinking it'll end up with similar numbers to Saving Mr. Banks and The Post now.

[Valonqar]

ABDIN could get resurrected by its boxoffice. I know nothing about the person Hanks is playing but it sounds like he's some kind of legend so older crowd could tide it over with strong holds.

[lorddemaxus]

http://collider.com/hugh-jackman-bad-education-hbo/

 

If Bad Education wasn't out of the race, it sure is now. Imo WB did the right thing. Instead of buying a well received film from a festival and dumping it on a shitty release date with zero marketing (like they did with Blinded by the Light), having it go on TV/streaming seems like a much better idea because at least that way the movie won't flop.

[TMP]

3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

http://collider.com/hugh-jackman-bad-education-hbo/

 

If Bad Education wasn't out of the race, it sure is now. Imo WB did the right thing. Instead of buying a well received film from a festival and dumping it on a shitty release date with zero marketing (like they did with Blinded by the Light), having it go on TV/streaming seems like a much better idea because at least that way the movie won't flop.

This sets a bad precedent. Buy-outs like I, Tonya are gonna be more & more rare, and mid-budget dramas are gonna be streaming only endeavours if this was the best option for a well-reviewed dramedy starring Wolverine 

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

having it go on TV/streaming seems like a much better idea because at least that way the movie won't flop.

I imagine you can still very easily flop, they will just be able to hide it if it happen (streamers tend to be quite vocal when something do not flop), that still a lot of extra months to get from customers for it to not be a flop.

Edited September 18, 2019 by Barnack

[Cmasterclay]

So I have now seen two fairly reliable awards prognosticators say that they've heard Bombshell is great and has a real chance in alot of categories. Grain of salt etc, but there's smoke there at least.

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, TMP said:

This sets a bad precedent. Buy-outs like I, Tonya are gonna be more & more rare, and mid-budget dramas are gonna be streaming only endeavours if this was the best option for a well-reviewed dramedy starring Wolverine 

To be fair I, Tonya was also a runner-up for People's Choice at TIFF two years ago so it clearly had potential beyond the festival circuit. Bad Education received good reviews but probably wasn't gonna make much at the box office without that extra level of buzz to push it, especially at a time when even specialty audiences are also starting to become fickle about what they're willing to venture out to a theater to see.

[Ethan Hunt]

On 9/16/2019 at 9:56 PM, RealLyre said:

I can see A Beautiful Day missing out on best pic 

hopefully

[WrathOfHan]

New predicts for the main categories:

 

Picture:

 

1. Marriage Story

2. Joker

3. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

5. Parasite

6. Jojo Rabbit

7. Ford v. Ferrari

8. The Farewell

-----------------

9. The Two Popes

10. Hustlers

Alt: Little Women

 

Director:

 

1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

3. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

4. Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

5. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

Alt: Todd Phillips, Joker

 

Actor:

 

1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Matthew Rhys, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Alt: Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

 

Actress:

 

1. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

2. Renee Zellweger, Judy

3. Awkwafina, The Farewell

4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

5. Meryl Streep, The Laundromat

Alt: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

2. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

4. Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari

5. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy

Alt: Joe Pesci, The Irishman

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

2. Laura Dern, Marriage Story

3. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

4. Emma Thompson, Late Night

5. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Alt: Florence Pugh, Little Women

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Marriage Story

2. Parasite

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. The Farewell

5. Knives Out

Alt: The Two Popes

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

2. Ford v. Ferrari

3. Joker

4. Jojo Rabbit

5. Hustlers

Alt: Little Women

 

 

Still have no idea what is winning Picture. I almost put Joker in first but because I don't have Phillips in Director I didn't. However, that didn't stop Green Book and almost didn't stop Three Billboards sooooooo

I don't see myself budging from that Actor lineup. Banderas could replace Rhys or Pryce, but I don't trust Sony Classics.

Something feels wrong with Actress but idk who is getting dropped/if Ronan is even the backup. If Hustlers overperforms in precursors, I wouldn't be surprised if Constance Wu got in.

Supporting Actor? So crowded for once!

Supporting Actress..... yikes. JLo totally deserves it tho