Best Picture Predictions - 2019

[lorddemaxus]

On 11/17/2019 at 11:01 AM, The Panda said:

Parasite is universally liked.

 

Dont buy that The Farewell will be viewed as a foreign film

I don't know. It seems like a much bigger hit with the younger crowd and critics like Roma last year.

 

And The Farewell is already being viewed as a foreign film by the HFPA so I wouldn't be surprised if they look at it that way just because most of the movie is in Chinese.

[lorddemaxus]

8 hours ago, Valonqar said:

So what's the consensus on Joker? Picture nom yes or no?

It's gonna do not so well in the critics awards ceremonies but should do better in the industry awards (Guilds, Golden Globes, Critics Choice). I'm seeing more industry support for it than most of the other contenders but I think it's not going to get anything more than a likely nomination.

 

FvF: I don't see it getting Acting or Directing noms so I personally think that pretty much means the movie is out of the BP race. Maybe if it gets an original screenplay nom. I think it's a toss up between FvF and Knives Out for the 5th Screenplay slot. Also seems like a dark horse for editing and sound noms seem like locks. But I think it needs to get that Screenplay nom to have a decent chance for BP nom.

Edited November 18, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[CloneWars]

A foreign language winner is beyond, beyond, beyond overdue. For that reason, and because Parasite is good, I can see it winning.

 

I don't buy the arguments of JoJo winning.

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, CloneWars said:

A foreign language winner is beyond, beyond, beyond overdue. For that reason, and because Parasite is good, I can see it winning.

 

I don't buy the arguments of JoJo winning.

Jojo's only argument is that it won TIFF Audience Award like Green Book and Green Book win scared everyone so people are bracing for the repeat. But there are differences. Jojo's MC is way worse than GB's and it's started to drop at the boxoffice dispite adding theaters. Whether nominations can keep its BO afloat remains to be seen cause competition is coming in full force. 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

Jojo's only argument is that it won TIFF Audience Award like Green Book and Green Book win scared everyone so people are bracing for the repeat. But there are differences. Jojo's MC is way worse than GB's and it's started to drop at the boxoffice dispite adding theaters. Whether nominations can keep its BO afloat remains to be seen cause competition is coming in full force. 

In fairness, both it and Parasite are starting to slow down simply because theaters are about to get super crowded with competition. They'll get a second chance in January when we'll really be in awards season and nothing of note looks to open (especially looking at the release schedule).

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Jojo's only argument is that it won TIFF Audience Award like Green Book and Green Book win scared everyone so people are bracing for the repeat. But there are differences. Jojo's MC is way worse than GB's and it's started to drop at the boxoffice dispite adding theaters. Whether nominations can keep its BO afloat remains to be seen cause competition is coming in full force. 

And jojo didn't get A+ cinemascore

[Valonqar]

Oh really? Interesting.

 

 

[Ezen Baklattan]

I'll make another thread, but Independent Spirit Awards noms are announced Thursday. Guessing the lineup is...

 

The Farewell

Last Black Man in San Francisco

The Lighthouse

Marriage Story

Uncut Gems

[titanic2187]

https://deadline.com/2019/11/spirit-awards-nominations-full-list-nominees-indie-film-ifp-1202792053/

2020 Film Independent Spirit Noms Announced 

BEST FEATURE

A HIDDEN LIFE

CLEMENCY

THE FAREWELL

MARRIAGE STORY

UNCUT GEMS

BEST FIRST FEATURE

BOOKSMART

THE CLIMB

DIANE

THE LAST BLACK MAN IN SAN FRANCISCO

THE MUSTANG

SEE YOU YESTERDAY

BEST FEMALE LEAD

Karen Allen – COLEWELL

Hong Chau – DRIVEWAYS

Elisabeth Moss – HER SMELL

Mary Kay Place – DIANE

Alfre Woodard – CLEMENCY

Renée Zellweger – JUDY

BEST MALE LEAD

Chris Galust – GIVE ME LIBERTY

Kelvin Harrison – Jr., LUCE

Robert Pattinson – THE LIGHTHOUSE

Adam Sandler – UNCUT GEMS

Matthias Schoenaerts – THE MUSTANG

BEST DIRECTOR

Robert Eggers – THE LIGHTHOUSE

Alma Har’el – HONEY BOY

Julius Onah – LUCe

Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie – UNCUT GEMS

Lorene Scafaria – HUSTLERS

BEST DOCTUMENTARY

AMERICAN FACTORY

APOLLO 11

FOR SAMA

HONEYLAND

ISLAND OF THE HUNGRY GHOSTS

BEST SUPPORTING MALE

Willem Dafoe – THE LIGHTHOUSE

Noah Jupe – HONEY BOY

hia Labeouf – HONEY BOY

Jonathan Majors – THE LAST BLACK MAN IN SAN FRANCISCO

Wendell Pierce – BURNING CANE

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE

Jennifer Lopez – HUSTLERS

Taylor Russell – WAVES

Zhao Shuzhen – THE FAREWELL

Lauren “Lolo” Spencer – GIVE ME LIBERTY

Octavia Spencer – LUCE

[SLAM!]

Takeaways from the Independent Spirit Awards:

 

- A Hidden Life has vocal fans in certain subsects; it must be noted that categories were harshly separated by committees.

- Awkwafina missed for what could have been an easy precursor nomination. This will likely cause her chances to fall.

- Her Smell has the luxury of being able to consolidate all of its awards efforts onto Elizabeth Moss.

- Voters are responding to Clemency, not just as an acting showcase for Alfre Woodard, but as a film in and of itself. Woodard's chances increase.

- For International Feature, Parasite and Les Miserables continue forward while Invisible Life and Retablo gain a leg up. The Third Wife, a film in the Vietnamese language, has its fans, but its status as a U.S. production is what prohibited it for last year's and this year's International Oscar category. The Vietnam submission for this year is Furie, which, to my knowledge, is available on Netflix.

- For Documentary Feature, American Factory, Apollo 11, For Sama, and Honeyland continue to solidify themselves. Island of the Hungry Ghosts is not on this year's submission list.

- A24 has many great films this year. Exactly how the Academy will respond to films like The Lighthouse and Uncut Gems remains to be seen.

- If either Colewell or Driveways could be classified as comedies, Karen Allen and/or Hong Chau, respectively, could be sleeper candidates for the Golden Globes' comedy/musical actress category. It remains to be seen if Gunpowder & Sky will attempt to classify Her Smell as a "musical" based on the fact that there are song numbers in the film. Diane, plainly and simply, is not a comedy.

- Honey Boy receives significant recognition, and Shia LaBeouf's chances are therefore increased.

Edited November 21, 2019 by SLAM!

[RealLyre]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

https://deadline.com/2019/11/spirit-awards-nominations-full-list-nominees-indie-film-ifp-1202792053/

2020 Film Independent Spirit Noms Announced 

BEST FEATURE

A HIDDEN LIFE

CLEMENCY

THE FAREWELL

MARRIAGE STORY

UNCUT GEMS

BEST FIRST FEATURE

BOOKSMART

THE CLIMB

DIANE

THE LAST BLACK MAN IN SAN FRANCISCO

THE MUSTANG

SEE YOU YESTERDAY

BEST FEMALE LEAD

Karen Allen – COLEWELL

Hong Chau – DRIVEWAYS

Elisabeth Moss – HER SMELL

Mary Kay Place – DIANE

Alfre Woodard – CLEMENCY

Renée Zellweger – JUDY

BEST MALE LEAD

Chris Galust – GIVE ME LIBERTY

Kelvin Harrison – Jr., LUCE

Robert Pattinson – THE LIGHTHOUSE

Adam Sandler – UNCUT GEMS

Matthias Schoenaerts – THE MUSTANG

BEST DIRECTOR

Robert Eggers – THE LIGHTHOUSE

Alma Har’el – HONEY BOY

Julius Onah – LUCe

Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie – UNCUT GEMS

Lorene Scafaria – HUSTLERS

BEST DOCTUMENTARY

AMERICAN FACTORY

APOLLO 11

FOR SAMA

HONEYLAND

ISLAND OF THE HUNGRY GHOSTS

BEST SUPPORTING MALE

Willem Dafoe – THE LIGHTHOUSE

Noah Jupe – HONEY BOY

hia Labeouf – HONEY BOY

Jonathan Majors – THE LAST BLACK MAN IN SAN FRANCISCO

Wendell Pierce – BURNING CANE

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE

Jennifer Lopez – HUSTLERS

Taylor Russell – WAVES

Zhao Shuzhen – THE FAREWELL

Lauren “Lolo” Spencer – GIVE ME LIBERTY

Octavia Spencer – LUCE

the acting nods are a bit weird but A Hidden Life lives! a lone cinematography nod incoming? 

[lorddemaxus]

I think this makes Woodward a lock honestly. I would probably put her over Awkwafina (who can still get in like Melissa McCarthy last year) atm in terms of likeliness to get nominated. JLo is also a lock. Also, Waves chances at the Oscars are unfortunately dead now.

 

I hope Sandler has increased chances of getting a nom but the accessibility of the movie itself is the most important factor.

[SLAM!]

I just noticed how few times Marriage Story was nominated at the FISA. Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, Alan Alda, and Laura Dern are all absent.  Noah Baumbach was snubbed for directing. Zilch for cinematography or editing. That's interesting. I really wonder why Marriage Story isn't dominating as much as one would think. I'm sure its chances are still great for acting categories and whatnot; it's one of the best films of the year.

 

It's interesting that Johansson and Awkwafina both got snubbed, and that I feel more confident about Johansson than I do Awkwafina. 

 

Just realized what happened: Marriage Story got the ensemble award. That makes sense because every performance in Marriage Story is great. If they only award one entire ensemble, than just give the ensemble the award and nominate other people for the singular acting awards. That's probably what they did. And that's completely fine. No shame in that.

 

Florence Pugh didn't get the acting nomination for Midsommar... so her awards focus is definitely on Little Women. As if the Academy would go for her Midsommar performance if they didn't go for Toni Colette last year.

[RealLyre]

5 hours ago, SLAM! said:

I just noticed how few times Marriage Story was nominated at the FISA. Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, Alan Alda, and Laura Dern are all absent.  Noah Baumbach was snubbed for directing. Zilch for cinematography or editing. That's interesting. I really wonder why Marriage Story isn't dominating as much as one would think. I'm sure its chances are still great for acting categories and whatnot; it's one of the best films of the year.

 

It's interesting that Johansson and Awkwafina both got snubbed, and that I feel more confident about Johansson than I do Awkwafina. 

 

Just realized what happened: Marriage Story got the ensemble award. That makes sense because every performance in Marriage Story is great. If they only award one entire ensemble, than just give the ensemble the award and nominate other people for the singular acting awards. That's probably what they did. And that's completely fine. No shame in that.

 

Florence Pugh didn't get the acting nomination for Midsommar... so her awards focus is definitely on Little Women. As if the Academy would go for her Midsommar performance if they didn't go for Toni Colette last year.

winning the ensemble award also makes them ineligible for the singular acting awards. I'd say Marriage Story would win this but Indie Spirit awards are some times goofy. 

last year Suspiria won best feature, not that it doesn't deserve it but it was a genre-y film

 

Florence Pugh's snub hurts tho 😕 

[SLAM!]

https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/16-performances-we-hope-oscar-voters-wont-forget/

 

Rotten Tomatoes released a great read that talks about some performances in 2019 that deserve Oscar nominations. I thought I'd post it here.

[Cmasterclay]

1917 is currently screening and we should get reactions in two hours. After that, it's just a wait for the first precursors (though we also could use actual reviews of Little Women/Bombshell).

[Cmasterclay]

So 1917 reactions are out and it sounds like it is going to be a big league contender for noms and wins in the categories expected (Picture, Director, techs)

[RealLyre]

is it usual to have 2 or even 3 heavy Oscar contenders to debut in late December? between 1917, Little Women and Bombshell I'm not sure if the Academy will have enough space for all of them to get a best picture nom especially with such an early Oscar date that might not give them enough time to build buzz.  

[lorddemaxus]

Anyone know when Little Women premiered? 1917 is probably not a frontrunner because no film that premiered after October has won Best Picture since Million Dollar Baby. I think Bombshell premiered in October and Little Women either premiered towards the end of October or start of November (which is probably already kinda late).

Edited November 24, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[RealLyre]

8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Anyone know when Little Women premiered? 1917 is probably not a frontrunner because no film that premiered after October has won Best Picture since Million Dollar Baby. I think Bombshell premiered in October and Little Women either premiered towards the end of October or start of November (which is probably already kinda late).

oh I was more talking about their official release being late (publically in theaters, when everybody gets to see it). Little Women had its premiere on Oct 24th btw.