stripe Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 It's going to be a blood bath this year to secure a nom besides this six Irishman 1917 Marriage Story Parasite Once upon a time in Hollywood JoJo Rabbit There are 6 strong/plausible contenders for the remaining 2-3 spots Richard Jewell Little Women Joker Knives Out (raising: NBR / AFI / AFCC top 10) Ford v Ferrari Uncut Gems (raising: NBR / AFCC top 10 + NYFCC best directing) Ant there are 3 that still looking as possible surprises A Hidden Life Farewell Two Popes Bolded my current BP lineup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 5, 2019 Author Share Posted December 5, 2019 I think (and hope) that people are overrating Joker’s chances and underrating The Farewell’s 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, The Panda said: I think (and hope) that people are overrating Joker’s chances and underrating The Farewell’s Problem with The Farewell is that it probably won't get many precursor noms/wins. Neither Joker nor The Farewell get anything from critics but Joker will do well in the industry awards. The Farewell will get a Foreign film GG nom, an original WGA nom, and is already is in the AFI top 10 but I don't see it do any better. Joker will probably get a PGA nom, adapted WGA nom, a Drama GG nom, and also should get noms at the ASC and ACE awards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 I think Joker will be this year's Bohemian Rhapsody so it should do well with the globes. I wouldn't be shocked if it also beat The Irishman at the drama globe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 5, 2019 Author Share Posted December 5, 2019 1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said: Problem with The Farewell is that it probably won't get many precursor noms/wins. Neither Joker nor The Farewell get anything from critics but Joker will do well in the industry awards. The Farewell will get a Foreign film GG nom, an original WGA nom, and is already is in the AFI top 10 but I don't see it do any better. Joker will probably get a PGA nom, adapted WGA nom, a Drama GG nom, and also should get noms at the ASC and ACE awards. The Farewell has already gotten some precursor recognition though? And it’s kind of early to say which guilds it will and won’t hit imo. That’s a lot of certainty talk for a fairly random process Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 saw it pointed out on twitter that the last time a best picture winner didn't get nominated for both best director and best screenplay at the globes was Crash 14 years ago. this year three movies hit both cats Irishman, Parasite and Hollywood. literally my top 3 of the year. if it ends up being between those three movies it'd be very relaxing after what a mess last year was. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said: saw it pointed out on twitter that the last time a best picture winner didn't get nominated for both best director and best screenplay at the globes was Crash 14 years ago. this year three movies hit both cats Irishman, Parasite and Hollywood. literally my top 3 of the year. if it ends up being between those three movies it'd be very relaxing after what a mess last year was. Joker will win at the globes and irishman will win at the oscars and twitter will have a meltdown. the Academy isn't ready yet to award more deserving movies like Parasite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 (edited) Just now, RealLyre said: Joker will win at the globes and irishman will win at the oscars and twitter will have a meltdown. the Academy isn't ready yet to award more deserving movies like Parasite. yeah i'd be cool with that. think parasite or hollywood are more likely tho. Edited December 9, 2019 by CoolioD1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: yeah i'd be cool with that. think parasite or hollywood are more likely tho. depends on who wins the PGA, Irishman will have the anti-netflix crowd against it, Parasite is foreign so it's not getting the PGA, and Hollywood is just the most oscar-baity out of the 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nerfy Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 There's one ironclad reason why Parasite won't win BP. It's the best film of the year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: yeah i'd be cool with that. think parasite or hollywood are more likely tho. A foreign film hasn't ever won Best Picture and it won't for a long a time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Bong's gonna win Director, methinks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: A foreign film hasn't ever won Best Picture and it won't for a long a time. Yeah yeah I’ve heard this song already Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Valonqar said: Bong's gonna win Director, methinks. I am more inclined to say that Bong will get Screenplay win. Irishman have more technical achievement here which Oscar will like to award its director more likely. See how Damien, Cauron, ang lee got their oscar when their movies start to sweep the technical categories. Edited December 9, 2019 by titanic2187 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 That's a good point! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said: A foreign film hasn't ever won Best Picture and it won't for a long a time. Foreign language and foreign film are quite a bit different in their chance to win BP, but I imagine you meant a non English one anyway. Not sure for the future, AMPAS membership is getting more and more international and Netflix such an award force that it could happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TMP Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Jojo not getting a screenplay globes nom makes me less sure on its placement. I'd say FvF is more likely, tbh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, TMP said: Jojo not getting a screenplay globes nom makes me less sure on its placement. I'd say FvF is more likely, tbh I dont see JoJo missing Adapted Screenplay at the academy while FvF could easily lose Original to Knives Out which means FvF will only end up with editing, and two sound noms which is very low for a BP contender. The only movie I can think of that got nominated with worse was Selma (only an original song nom). Edited December 10, 2019 by lorddemaxus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrGlass2 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 19 hours ago, lorddemaxus said: A foreign film hasn't ever won Best Picture and it won't for a long a time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 20 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said: Technically not foreign language Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
