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Best Picture Predictions - 2019

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Cinema Audio Society Nominations

https://www.indiewire.com/2019/12/cinema-audio-society-nominations-2020-1202195995/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Live action:

Ford v Ferrari

Joker

Rocketman

Once Upon a time

Irishman 

 

Yet another guild is chosing to honor Joker, there is very strong support for film in industry. 

I'm very confident about Joker getting at least 7 Oscar nominations. 

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Lovely. It's a worthy movie that seriously didn't deserve all the MASS SHOOTINGS RHEEEE beating that it got pre-release. 

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3 hours ago, Movie nerd said:

Cinema Audio Society Nominations

https://www.indiewire.com/2019/12/cinema-audio-society-nominations-2020-1202195995/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Live action:

Ford v Ferrari

Joker

Rocketman

Once Upon a time

Irishman 

 

Yet another guild is chosing to honor Joker, there is very strong support for film in industry. 

I'm very confident about Joker getting at least 7 Oscar nominations. 

picture,actor,adapted screenplay,score, makeup, cinematography(?) and both sound nods? I doubt Joker would get editing. 

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Damn, Little Women missed both the Art Directors and Costume Designers Guild awards which I think it should have been nominated for (and could have won the latter too). Also underperformed at the Critics Choice awards and Golden Globes. If it misses the SAG tomorrow, it's dead.

 

I think Knives Out could maybe get a nom if that happens. It's been overperforming so far.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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27 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

picture,actor,adapted screenplay,score, makeup, cinematography(?) and both sound nods? I doubt Joker would get editing. 

I feel very good about picture,actor,adapted screenplay,score, makeup, cinematography. That's six. 

Plus two sound categeories and production design where it has good chance. We will see with editing tomorrow. 

And there is also, in my opinion, not that abstract posibility that Philips could be nominated for director. 

My god, can you imagine the meltdowns some people would have if Todd would get not one but two Oscar nominations?? 

It would be histerical on whole new biblical level. 😂😂😂

 

Edited by Movie nerd

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Irishman or Hollywood would be great but I'm gonna root for Parasite till the end. 

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What a crazy year we're witnessing.

 

Just when Richard Jewell looked strong enough for a nom, Globes and SAG lowers the hype.

Just when I thought Two Popes was out of the run, Globes resurrected it.

Just when Little Women prospects were solidifying, it's out in the Globes/SAG.

Just when I thought Bombshell was dead, SAG comes and gives an extra life.

Just when I was ready to put Knives Out in the mix, SAG snubs it.

 

 

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1 hour ago, stripe said:

What a crazy year we're witnessing.

 

Just when Richard Jewell looked strong enough for a nom, Globes and SAG lowers the hype.

Just when I thought Two Popes was out of the run, Globes resurrected it.

Just when Little Women prospects were solidifying, it's out in the Globes/SAG.

Just when I thought Bombshell was dead, SAG comes and gives an extra life.

Just when I was ready to put Knives Out in the mix, SAG snubs it.

 

 

Very strong year, in some categeories historically strong. 

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On 12/13/2019 at 5:19 PM, Movie nerd said:

Very strong year, in some categeories historically strong. 

Yes. And even with this strong year, there are 6 movies that look like locks.

 

If we were in the years of 5 BP nominees, race would be pretty much clear between Irishman, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917 and Parasite. With JoJo as a potential spoiler.

 

 

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today they'll release the shortlists for international, documentaries, shorts, score, songs and VFX categories.

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shortlists are out

https://oscars.org/oscars/92nd-oscars-shortlists

foreign film:

Quote

Czech Republic, “The Painted Bird”
Estonia, “Truth and Justice”
France, “Les Misérables”
Hungary, “Those Who Remained”
North Macedonia, “Honeyland”
Poland, “Corpus Christi”
Russia, “Beanpole”
Senegal, “Atlantics”
South Korea, “Parasite”
Spain, “Pain and Glory”

score: 

Quote

“Avengers: Endgame”
“Bombshell”
“The Farewell”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“Frozen II”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“The King”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“Motherless Brooklyn”
“1917”
“Pain and Glory”
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
“Us”

song

Quote

“Speechless” from “Aladdin”
“Letter To My Godfather” from “The Black Godfather”
“I’m Standing With You” from “Breakthrough”
“Da Bronx” from “The Bronx USA”
“Into The Unknown” from “Frozen II”
“Stand Up” from “Harriet”
“Catchy Song” from “The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part”
“Never Too Late” from “The Lion King”
“Spirit” from “The Lion King”
“Daily Battles” from “Motherless Brooklyn”
“A Glass of Soju” from “Parasite”
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from “Rocketman”
“High Above The Water” from “Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am”
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from “Toy Story 4”
“Glasgow” from “Wild Rose”

make up:

Quote

“Bombshell”
“Dolemite Is My Name”
“Downton Abbey”
“Joker”
“Judy”
“Little Women”
“Maleficent: Mistress of Evil”
“1917”
“Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
“Rocketman”

visual effects

Quote

“Alita: Battle Angel”
“Avengers: Endgame”
“Captain Marvel”
“Cats”
“Gemini Man”
“The Irishman”
“The Lion King”
“1917”
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
“Terminator: Dark Fate”

 

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Parasite not making it in for score is a shame. but it's there for song. i didn't even know the movie had a song.

 

also that new Cats song taylor swift wrote isn't on the shortlist. lol it's there for VFX tho.

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1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

Parasite not making it in for score is a shame. but it's there for song. i didn't even know the movie had a song.

 

also that new Cats song taylor swift wrote isn't on the shortlist. lol it's there for VFX tho.

it's apparently the one at the end sung by the main character

 

 

 

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My shortlist impressions:

 

- Sweden's And Then We Danced, Brazil's Invisible Life, and Colombia's Monos are probably the three biggest snub in International Feature. Weathering With You likely needed to be shortlisted here to stay in the race for Animated; it hasn't hit enough precursors to be a good bet. I think ParasitePain & GloryLes Miserables, and Atlantics are the four near-locks, so it'll be interesting to see what gets the fifth slot.

- I really love how we're getting a 10-film shortlist and 5-film nomination for Makeup & Hairstyling. That's incredibly exciting. There's no foreign film for the Academy to rally behind this time, but I'm rooting for Dolemite and Rocketman here.

- Netflix is all over the feature documentary category, which is cool to see. I think it got 4 or 5 films shortlisted there.

- I saw one of the shortlisted Animated Short Films, Mind My Mind, at a film festival this year, and I'm really glad it made the shortlist. It's a well-animated and well-edited crowdpleaser, and I'm really hoping it's nominated in its category.

Edited by SLAM!

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Oscar love on Parasite is real, they even shortlisted a song from parasite that I didn't know it exists. 

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16 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

also that new Cats song taylor swift wrote isn't on the shortlist. lol it's there for VFX tho.

Watch it get nominated. Tom Hooper be like:

 

Related image

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Predictions for the shortlisted categories:

 

Foreign:

 

1. Parasite

2. Pain and Glory

3. Les Miserables

4. Atlantics

5. Honeyland

Alt: The Painted Bird

 

Score:

 

1. 1917

2. Joker

3. Little Women

4. Us

5. Jojo Rabbit

Alt: Marriage Story

 

Song:

 

1. Into the Unknown, Frozen II

2. Stand Up, Harriet

3. I'm Gonna Love Me Again, Rocketman

4. Glasgow, Wild Rose

5. Daily Battles, Motherless Brooklyn

Alt: Speechless, Aladdin

 

Makeup:

 

1. Bombshell

2. Joker

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Rocketman

5. Judy

Alt: Downton Abbey

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. The Irishman

2. Avengers: Endgame

3. 1917

4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

5. CATS

Alt: The Lion King

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Best Picture Winner Likelihood IMO

 

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Parasite

3. The Irishman

4. 1917

5. Marriage Story

6. Jojo Rabbit

7. Joker

8. Little Women

 

 

I think those are the eight nominees, I'd put one of Ford v Ferrari, Two Popes, or Bombshell in there if we get a 9th.

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I liked Bombshell quite a bit, but it feels very reminiscent of the political movies Jay Roach did for HBO. It'll get acting nominations for sure, but I dunno about Best Picture.

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4 hours ago, Webslinger said:

I liked Bombshell quite a bit, but it feels very reminiscent of the political movies Jay Roach did for HBO. It'll get acting nominations for sure, but I dunno about Best Picture.

Honestly with the way Supporting Actress has thinned out I would bet on Kidman getting in along with Robbie at this point.

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