titanic2187 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, Webslinger said: I liked Bombshell quite a bit, but it feels very reminiscent of the political movies Jay Roach did for HBO. It'll get acting nominations for sure, but I dunno about Best Picture. it will need vice kind of resurgence, it wasn't very impressed critically and commercially Edited December 23, 2019 by titanic2187 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Bombshell was always gonna be an acting+makeup play only. Theron and Robbie are basically locked for noms with makeup being a probably win. The question is moreso whether Kidman makes it. I haven't seen the movie yet (probably won't until I get back to school given my area's demos), but she's a wildcard on paper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 (edited) Some of these Oscar movies are gonna need some serious nominations to attract more moviegoers. Bombshell might need Kidman as well as Theron, Robbie, and makeup, and many some others that it has an off chance to secure, in order to strengthen its lackluster box office. Heck, the box office might be doing a number in its chances across the board. Edited December 23, 2019 by SLAM! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 23 hours ago, Cmasterclay said: Best Picture Winner Likelihood IMO 1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 2. Parasite 3. The Irishman 4. 1917 5. Marriage Story 6. Jojo Rabbit 7. Joker 8. Little Women I think those are the eight nominees, I'd put one of Ford v Ferrari, Two Popes, or Bombshell in there if we get a 9th. Yeah I'm starting to think this will be the actual line-up, although I'm not even sure how I feel about Little Women's chances anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 If Uncut Gems does really well in its expansion and gets a PGA nod, I actually do think it has a shot at getting the 9th spot. With The Farewell underperforming so far, A24 might as well go all in on this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Ford v Ferrari could take Little Women' spot as the 8th nominee. but the actual best picture race is between Parasite, Irishman and Hollywood. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Just now, Spaghetti said: If Uncut Gems does really well in its expansion and gets a PGA nod, I actually do think it has a shot at getting the 9th spot. With The Farewell underperforming so far, A24 might as well go all in on this one. I could be wrong but a lone PGA nomination (while missing globes and SAG) don't really mean much see: A Quiet Place, Wonder Woman and Deadpool (which the last 2 also got into AFI's top 10 of the year and uncut gems didn't). Uncut Gems has always been an actor only play and the fact that Sandler missed on SAG is a red flag Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, RealLyre said: I could be wrong but a lone PGA nomination (while missing globes and SAG) don't really mean much see: A Quiet Place, Wonder Woman and Deadpool (which the last 2 also got into AFI's top 10 of the year and uncut gems didn't). Uncut Gems has always been an actor only play and the fact that Sandler missed on SAG is a red flag Right now, we need more of a sign that it's gonna play to the industry. Sandler not getting a SAG nod is a bit worrying for its further aspects, but it can recover if it gets more guild support. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 8 hours ago, Spaghetti said: Right now, we need more of a sign that it's gonna play to the industry. Sandler not getting a SAG nod is a bit worrying for its further aspects, but it can recover if it gets more guild support. I suspect at most it'll remain on the outside looking in even if it does solid (for an indie) box office but that's just me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Maybe Sandler would make it in a less competitive year. This is the most packed Best Actor category in a while. The only other year this decade Actor was this packed was the McConaissance year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 4 hours ago, Joel M said: Maybe Sandler would make it in a less competitive year. This is the most packed Best Actor category in a while. The only other year this decade Actor was this packed was the McConaissance year. I'm thinking the line-up is gonna be Banderas/DiCaprio/Driver/Egerton/Phoenix at this point. Maybe Bale can make it in over Banderas or Egerton (who has been hitting the campaign trail just as much as Malek did last year despite his movie being a summer release and is likely to win the Comedy/Musical Globe) but we'll see. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I do think that UG could end up pulling a Phantom Thread, but it was hard to use guilds and awards as a compasion point since it came out relatively late in the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 yeah the uncut gems buzz seems to be peaking right now which is a good time for it. maybe also the safdies get a screenplay nod (or even director since after Bong/Scorsese/Qt/Mendes i think there's a slot up in the air there. ) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TMP Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 14 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: yeah the uncut gems buzz seems to be peaking right now which is a good time for it. maybe also the safdies get a screenplay nod (or even director since after Bong/Scorsese/Qt/Mendes i think there's a slot up in the air there. ) Slot for Toddy P 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 17 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: yeah the uncut gems buzz seems to be peaking right now which is a good time for it. maybe also the safdies get a screenplay nod (or even director since after Bong/Scorsese/Qt/Mendes i think there's a slot up in the air there. ) the 5th slot is between Greta and Philips imo, with Philips likely making it in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 31 minutes ago, RealLyre said: the 5th slot is between Greta and Philips imo, with Philips likely making it in. Even those seem locked director may slip off the race in the end at Oscar. See how Bradly copper and Peter farrelly snubbed in the end despite nominated everywhere PGA, GG, CC and BAFTA just to make way for Yorgos and Pawel. Both the favoruite and cold war displayed much more flavour and more stylish/flashy direction while ASIB and GB were just straight forward drama. That is how Yorgos/ Pawel prevail in the end despite overlooked elsewhere. Of all the locked nominees here, Bong is the weakest as Parasite wasn't that flashy compared to Irishman, 1917 or once upon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 literally every single year, especially in the directing category everyone's like a few weeks in advanced "it's definitely these five guys, no way anyone else is getting in. lock the thread now because we've solved it". and then we have to pretend to be shocked when one of those consensus five picks misses. literally every time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 21 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: literally every single year, especially in the directing category everyone's like a few weeks in advanced "it's definitely these five guys, no way anyone else is getting in. lock the thread now because we've solved it". and then we have to pretend to be shocked when one of those consensus five picks misses. literally every time. Notable example, the directing that got nominated almost everywhere (DGA+ CC+ BAFTA+ GG) ends up no Oscar hope. 2010 - Nolan for inception 2012 - Ben Affleck for agro and Biglow for Zero dark 30 2013 - Paul greengrass for Captain Philips. 2015 - Scott for The martian 2017 - Martin for 3 billboard 2018 - Cooper for ASIB and Farrelly for green book 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudalb Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I think we can safely eliminate "Cats" from the competition. I expect though a lot of Cats jokes at the Oscars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 4 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: literally every single year, especially in the directing category everyone's like a few weeks in advanced "it's definitely these five guys, no way anyone else is getting in. lock the thread now because we've solved it". and then we have to pretend to be shocked when one of those consensus five picks misses. literally every time. the only truly shocking director nomination I would see is celine sciamma for portrait of a lady on fire but that's not going to happen. I'm also thinking of switching between Philips and Mendes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
