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Best Picture Predictions - 2019

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7 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think my actual no guts no glory prediction might be Tom Hanks missing it instead of Hopkins - really seems like a lack of momentum, but I said the same thing about Duvall in 2014 and he kept showing up everywhere too. Just Mercy seemed to get a blast of positive buzz justttt before nominations ended so I'm very tempted to put Foxx in there tbh.

Honestly feel like JLo is a bit more vulnerable than originally anticipated too. Not just because of the BAFTA snub, but also because she's the only shot her movie has at a nomination, and lone nominees do tend to fall through the cracks in the end (see: Timothee Chalamet last year, Hong Chau the year before, Daniel Bruhl, etc.).

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My final 9 , i think they will go for 9 this round.

1. once upon a time in hollywood

2. Joker

3. Knives out

4. Little women

5. Parasite

6. 1917

7. jojo rabbit

8. Marriage story  

9. The farewell

 

I kick Ford v Ferrari out due to the lack of presence in main category such as screenplay and acting. And i decided to keep the farewell back hoping some "Amour" kind of overperforming 

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17 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

My final 9 , i think they will go for 9 this round.

1. once upon a time in hollywood

2. Joker

3. Knives out

4. Little women

5. Parasite

6. 1917

7. jojo rabbit

8. Marriage story  

9. The farewell

 

I kick Ford v Ferrari out due to the lack of presence in main category such as screenplay and acting. And i decided to keep the farewell back hoping some "Amour" kind of overperforming 

this list would be ideal but the Academy loves Scorsese too much to snub him.

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32 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

this list would be ideal but the Academy loves Scorsese too much to snub him.

You are right, I was thinking why I got a extra spot all of sudden to have farewell in when I kicked the film earlier. 

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Best Picture

Marriage Story

The Irishman

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Jojo Rabbit

Parasite

Joker

1917

Knives Out

Little Women

**

Ford v Ferrari

────────

Best Director

Martin Scorsese - The Irishman

Sam Mendes - 1917

Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Bong Joon-ho – Parasite

Todd Philips - Joker

────────

Actor

Joaquin Phoenix - Joker

Adam Driver - Marriage Story

Leo DiCaprio - OUATIH

Antonio Banderas - Pain & Glory

Taron Edgerton - Rocketman

────────

Actress

Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story

Renée Zellweger - Judy

Saoirse Ronan - Little Women

Awkwafina - The Farewell

Charlize Theron - Bombshell

────────

Supporting Actor

Brad Pitt - OUATIH

Al Pacino - The Irishman

Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Joe Pesci - The Irishman

Song Kang-ho - Parasite

────────

Supporting Actress

Laura Dern - Marriage Story

Florence Pugh - Little Women

Margot Robbie - Bombshell

Scarlett Johannson - JoJo Rabbit

Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers

────────

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

Joker

Two Popes

────────

Best Original Screenplay

Marriage Story

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Booksmart

Parasite

Knives Out

────────

Best Animated Feature

Frozen II

Toy Story 4

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Missing Link

Klaus

────────

Best Cinematography

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Irishman

Joker

Ford v Ferrari

────────

Best Film Editing

The Irishman

Ford v Ferrari

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

Joker

────────

Best Original Score

1917

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Little Women

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

────────

Tech Categories

 

Spoiler
 
 
0
 Advanced issue found
 
 

────────

Best Costume Design

Little Women

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Dolemite is my Name

Jojo Rabbit

Rocketman

────────

Best Production Design

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

Joker

The Irishman

────────

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Bombshell

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Rocketman

Judy

Joker

────────

Best Sound Editing

1917

Ford v. Ferrari

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joker

Avengers Endgame

────────

Best Sound Mixing

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Ford v. Ferrari

Joker

Avengers Endgame

────────

Best Visual Effects

The Irishman

Avengers: Endgame

Alita Battle Angel

The Lion King

1917

 

────────

 

Ranking BP nominees in terms of number of nominations:

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: 12

Joker: 11

The Irishman: 10

1917: 8

Parasite: 7

Little Women: 6

JoJo rabbit: 5

Marriage Story: 5

Knives Out: 2

 

I know I don't have Foreign film and Original song on here but I haven't been following those much. One thing I will say though is that I hope Glasgow gets an original song nom.

Edited by lorddemaxus

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My final predictions, in order of confidence, for the big categories

 

Picture

 

Once Upon a Time In Hollywood

Parasite

1917

The Irishman

Marriage Story

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Little Women

Ford v Ferrari

Alt 1: The Two Popes

Alt 2: Knives Out

Alt 3: Uncut Gems

 

Director

Quentin Tarantino

Sam Mendes 

Joon Ho

Martin Scorsese

Taika Waititi 

Alt 1: Todd Phillips

Alt 2: Greta Gerwig

Alt 3: Pedro Aldomovar

 

Actor

Joaquin Phoenix

Adam Driver

Leonardo DiCaprio

Taron Egerton

Antonio Banderas

Alt 1: Jonathan Pryce

Alt 2: Robert De Niro

Alt 3: Adam Sandler

 

Actress

Renee Zellwegger

Scarlett Johannson

Charlize Theoren

Cynthia Ervio

Saorsie Ronan

Alt 1: Lupita Nyong'o

Alt 2: Awkwafina

Alt 3: Alfre Woodard, for old times sake

 

Supporting Actor

Brad Pitt

Al Pacino

Joe Pesci

Tom Hanks

Jamie Foxx

Alt 1: Anthony Hopkins

Alt 2: Song Kang Ho

Alt 3: Willem Dafoe

 

Supporting Actress

Laura Dern

Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

Scarlett Johansson 

Jennifer Lopez

Nicole Kidman 

Alt 1: Florence Pugh

Alt 2: Kathy Bates

Alt 3: Zhao Shuzen

 

Weirdddddd year. Really tough to predict

 

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NOMINATIONS CONFIRMED:

 

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

Parasite

Joker

The Irishman

Ford V Ferrari

Marriage Story

1917

Once Upon A Time.....In Hollywood

 

---------------

 

 

 

It was weird watching the nominations, because while I was anticipating Joker to frustrate me...while I do personally think the movie has been deeply overrated I get the impression that the enthusiasm for it is legitimately genuine and appreciative, while as the nominations unfolded I found my frustration at The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood got greater and greater as it became clear that any doubt would always be defaulted back to them. They just seem like reflex, kneejerk nominations to the default established auteurs. 

 

It emphasises that for all the conversation about nominations being racist/sexist, it still comes down far more to laziness.

 

At least the Animated Feature category gave something to be appreciative of.

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I just saw Hustlers and I was surprised by how good the movie was, I wonder if the movie was about white strippers from Boston, would it have gotten best picture?

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On 1/8/2020 at 12:10 PM, stripe said:

 

Interesting fact

 

My Editing predictions:

Ford v Ferrari

Irishman

Once upon a time in Hollywood

Parasite

Joker

 

alt. JoJo Rabbit

 

Quote

Film Editing

 

Ford v Ferrari (Walt Disney)
 

The Irishman (Netflix)
 

Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
 

Joker (Warner Bros.)
 

Parasite (Neon)
 

 

good call, didn't expect the Jojo or Joker noms here

Edited by RealLyre
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On 1/11/2020 at 7:06 PM, titanic2187 said:

I have actually been suspecting Oscar made a mistake on vote count for best director category.

 

It is the year when steven soderbergh nominated for both Traffic & Erin in the same year. Ang lee won GG, DGA, BAFTA and independent spirit for best director but somehow lose to Steven in the Oscar, who so happened got nominated for his both movies.

 

I have been thinking the accountant sum up the vote for steven without knowing that was actually for two different movies. 

     

 

There wasn't a mistake.

 

No one voted for Erin. It was just a proof Soderberg was so strongly considered that year. Also, Traffic peaked at the perfect time to score that Directing Oscar. By that time, many Academy members wanted to reward his strong year, and Best Director was the best place to do so. Ang Lee had Foreign secured, so Oscar for him to please everyone.

 

Parasite also has Foreign in the bag, so the question is: Will Academy members feel like that's enough and reward another showy directing effort instead? I can see two names with strong chances.

Mendes' peaking at the right time. BO helps. 1917 is showy, and it's a genre so popular with Oscars.

Tarantino has the overdue factor. Never won a Director Oscar despite so many buzzy films.

 

 

 

 

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Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

1917 (Universal)

Producers: Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne‐Ann Tenggren, Callum McDougall

Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

Toy Story 4 (Disney/Pixar)

Producers: Mark Nielsen, Jonas Rivera

Outstanding Producer of Documentary Motion Picture

Apollo 11 (Neon)

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so 1917 might be the first film since 12 Years A Slave to win both the BAFTA and the Oscar for best picture. 

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Well, I guess it's pretty much a lock for 1917 now. If Parasite isn't winning, I'm guessing we'll never see a foreign film win Best Picture.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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12 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Well, I guess it's pretty much a lock for 1917 now. If Parasite isn't winning, I'm guessing we'll never see a foreign film win Best Picture.

Parasite has a pathway for best picture because of the screenplay win, so it still can pull a Spotlight/Moonlight with only a screenplay win. 

 

but it's chances are not very likely since we don't know how it would do under a preferential ballot (like when 1917 won the PGA, we don't really know what was 2nd or 3rd, it could be Jojo lol).

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3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Well, I guess it's pretty much a lock for 1917 now. If Parasite isn't winning, I'm guessing we'll never see a foreign film win Best Picture.

If Parasite wasn't in the best foreign language category, that will boost it chance in ultimate BP.

 

The idea of they can reward the film in best international film category is really happening i guess

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No real surprises from BAFTA but yeah, I think 1917 taking home the top two prizes while Parasite walks away with International Feature Film and Original Screenplay is the likely scenario at this point.

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