Best Picture Predictions - 2019

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm not convinced either Irishman or 1917 is coming out this year, Irishman for obvious reasons and 1917 because shit started shooting in April/May. Parasite is a good look too and I can even see Clemency sneaking in if alot of fall films disappoint - I think the odds of things already seen getting in are higher than people think. 

The trailer for 1917 will be premiering during this upcoming week. It's coming out this year.

[SLAM!]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The trailer for 1917 will be premiering during this upcoming week. It's coming out this year.

 

I don't wanna be that guy, but is there a source that I can find or a tweet about it (because I can't easily find tweets as I deleted my account) that says this is the case? In other words, is there a source? I agree that showing the trailer in front of Hobbs & Shaw would be a great move, but the "started shooting in April/May" tidbit makes me skeptical.

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm not convinced either Irishman or 1917 is coming out this year, Irishman for obvious reasons and 1917 because shit started shooting in April/May. Parasite is a good look too and I can even see Clemency sneaking in if alot of fall films disappoint - I think the odds of things already seen getting in are higher than people think. 

As much as I want Parasite to be in, Neon had never elevated a film to BP nomination, (their closest was I, Tonya), let alone a foreign language film. Netflix spent 25m to campaign Roma , i doubt Neon can come near to half of that budget.  

[SLAM!]

19 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

As much as I want Parasite to be in, Neon had never elevated a film to BP nomination, (their closest was I, Tonya), let alone a foreign language film. Netflix spent 25m to campaign Roma , i doubt Neon can come near to half of that budget.  

 

I remember excitedly telling my dad that I, Tonya was getting really close to a Best Picture nomination, and I remember being sort of surprised that it ended up missing. It was definitely 10th or 11th place. Hopefully a Neon film can get a Best Picture nomination one of these days.

[Ethan Hunt]

I kinda can't see OUATIH getting a nom

[MrPink]

Yeah I'm about 50/50 on Hollywood making it in. If awards season turns out to be a total bust like last year then it makes it but skeptical rn otherwise.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

It's been a few years since there wasn't at least one pre-September release in Best Picture–it's often two. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood seems more up the Academy's alley than Us, which I don't think is going to replicate Get Out's late year resurgence. Of course, it could be neither in the end.

Edited July 28, 2019 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[CoolioD1]

15 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

It's been a few years since there wasn't at least one pre-September release in Best Picture–it's often two. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood seems more up the Academy's alley than Us, which I don't think is going to replicate Get Out's late year resurgence. Of course, it could be neither in the end.

i think if there's one it's The Farewell.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

i think if there's one it's The Farewell.

True, forgot about that one, The Farewell will need a good "hey, remember us!" campaign but it will do well under the BP voting system, at least at the nominating phase.

[filmlover]

17 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

It's been a few years since there wasn't at least one pre-September release in Best Picture–it's often two. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood seems more up the Academy's alley than Us, which I don't think is going to replicate Get Out's late year resurgence. Of course, it could be neither in the end.

I think Us is out completely. Faded too quickly after its opening weekend plus is more inherently genre-y than Get Out was. Hollywood will definitely be a player for some noms but I think how far it gets will depend on its staying power. After seeing it I'm excited to see where it'll end up.

Edited July 29, 2019 by filmlover

[SLAM!]

Looks like I was wrong about The Irishman. Looks like both that film and Marriage Story will be screened at the New York Film Festival.

 

https://1010wins.radio.com/articles/scorsese-s-irishman-set-premiere-new-york-film-fest

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/markets-festivals/adam-driver-scarlett-johansson-marriage-story-noah-baumbach-new-york-film-festival-1203284639/

[filmlover]

 

 

[Jake Gittes]

My man Baumbach finally getting big time oscar recognition would be a nice thing to see even if as with Linklater/Wes Anderson it would be comically belated on the academy's part.

[RichWS]

On 7/31/2019 at 9:34 PM, Jake Gittes said:

My man Baumbach finally getting big time oscar recognition would be a nice thing to see even if as with Linklater/Wes Anderson it would be comically belated on the academy's part.

 

Baumbach getting Screenplay would make whatever other travesties happen this year worth it.

[SLAM!]

I think I have a major prediction for the awards season:

 

I think Terence Malick's A Hidden Life is in a great position to become a Best Picture nominee. I think it's position is similar to Hacksaw Ridge, in the sense that it's a WWII film that can find itself in good graces with all sorts of voters in the Academy, including the conservatives who propelled Green Book to an Oscar win. Disney's recent statements about Fox Searchlight lead me to believe that they can distribute A Hidden Life in a more substantial way than they can distribute Jojo Rabbit. I mean, have you seen A Hidden Life's trailer? They've made a great first impression!

 

A Hidden Life won't just be another Silence. Not with how (apparently) weak the year is shaping up to be.

[titanic2187]

I hate to say this but The farewell made not strong enough box office upon its expansion. i doubt the buzz will be enough to sustain its Oscar glory.

 

15m just isn't enough to make splash. May ends up like if beale street could talk last year. 

To make things worse, the movie could find itself compete with Parasite if parasite turns out to be foreign language film breakout.  

[CoolioD1]

i think the farewell will win it's share of critics awards to keep itself in the conversation. it's basically the best reviewed movie of the year so far.

[SLAM!]

5 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i think the farewell will win it's share of critics awards to keep itself in the conversation. it's basically the best reviewed movie of the year so far.

 

Then again, Leave No Trace was the highest reviewed film of last year around this time. Poor film debuted at Sundance just like The Farewell did. Poor film couldn't gain any traction, despite support from critics awards.

 

Of course, The Farewell has a little bit more going for it. A lot more box office, diversity stuff, Awkwafina, A24, and the fact that, so far, this year is WEAKSAUCE for film. So it wouldn't surprise me to see this film fade out of the conversation, but it also wouldn't surprise me to see it land a nomination here and there. Its best hopes are Actress, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay, though... I think Best Picture might actually slip away...

[CoolioD1]

yeah, people are actually talking about the farewell is the thing. i think it's gonna be at the top of a lot of critics lists. leave no trace, it was my #1 but i didn't see a lot of other people putting it at #1.

[filmlover]

Yeah, The Farewell felt like a bigger deal than Leave No Trace was. Also, A24 has a better awards season track record than Bleecker Street. I think it could make it even if it's in the bottom half of the nominees.