Best Picture Predictions - 2019

[Webslinger]

I fully expect The Farewell to stick around. It may not have the box office, but it definitely struck a chord with the people who saw it. A24 should be able to keep it in the running for a nomination as long as they put forth a savvy awards season campaign.

[Cmasterclay]

Venice and Telluride this week, Toronto the next! I'm pumped. Here are my final pre-festival predictions based on buzz and perceived confidence by the studios (plus a couple insider words from friends in the biz).

 

Best Picture

1. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (I have come around to this being a real favorite, based on a couple inside reports and the buzz)

2. Just Mercy

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Marriage Story

5. Ford v. Ferrari

6. The Farewell

7. Harriet

8. Little Women

9. Parasite

Alts I feel are strong contenders: The Irishman, if it can cover up being a bunch o'bullshit as a "true story." The Aeronauts, which I heard is pretty good. Jojo Rabbit, which I have heard some people say its a real contender and some say don't put it in just yet. A Hidden Life and the Report, which are already seen. The Laundromat and Two Popes, both of which are getting good festival rollouts. Motherless Brooklyn, which looks kinda shitty to me but the studio apparently has mega confidence in. (1917 is the oft predicted non-contender of the year IMO)

 

Best Director

1. Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

2. Cretton, Just Mercy

3. Tarantino, Hollywood

4. Bauchaum, Marriage Story

5. Wang, The Farewell (and well deserved, too).

Alts: Marty will get in if the film gets in, and ditto Taika. Mangold and Greta can be real contenders and are right there as top alts. 

 

Best Actress

1. Johannson, Marriage Story (finally, a woman of color)

2. Awkwafina, The Farewell

3. Ronan, Little Women

4. Ervio, Harriet

5. Jones, The Aeronauts

Alts: Zellwegger is an obvious one. Alfre Woodard could get a career nod. Lupita is by far the best chance for Us to carry over. Mirren and Turner-Smith are apparently pretty good.

 

Best Actor

1. Driver, Marriage Story

2. Banderas, Pain and Glory

3. Jordan, Just Mercy

4. DiCaprio, Hollywood

5. Pryce, Two Popes

Alts: Damon, Ford/Ferrari, De Niro, Irishman, Phoenix, Joker, McKellan, the Good Liar, and Daniel Craig, Knives Out (eyes emoji - I heard he is terrific). 

 

Best Supporting Actress

1. Dern, Marriage Story

2. Pugh, Little Women

3. Streep, The Laundromat (apparently this is her category)

4. Bening, The Report

5. Robbie, Hollywood

Alts: Johannson is apparently good in Rabbit, but she'd be a weird choice for first double nom in 15 years. Zhao in The Farewell absolutely deserves it. Monae could get a look. Charlize here is the only real place I can see Bombshell contending.

 

Best Supporting Actor

1. Hanks, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

2. Pitt, Hollywood

3. Alda, Marriage Story

4. Foxx, Just Mercy

5. Bale, Ford v. Ferrari

Alts: Pacino for Irishman is a big one - swap Alda out for him and keep the rest and goodnight that is star power. Ditto that for Anthony Hopkins, as the designated old man legend. Dafoe for Lighthouse is a real player - and apparently, so is Letts for Ford v. Ferrari. Maybe Chalamet for Little Women?

Edited August 25, 2019 by Cmasterclay

[4815162342]

32 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Venice and Telluride this week, Toronto the next! I'm pumped. Here are my final pre-festival predictions based on buzz and perceived confidence by the studios (plus a couple insider words from friends in the biz).

 

 

Best Actress

1. Johannson, Marriage Story (finally, a woman of color)

2. Awkwafina, The Farewell

3. Ronan, Little Women

4. Ervio, The Report

5. Jones, The Aeronauts

 

 

 

I assume you meant Harriet for Cynthia

[Cmasterclay]

5 minutes ago, 4815162342 said:

 

I assume you meant Harriet for Cynthia

Correct. Or they wanted to double nom Driver but couldn't. so they just picked a random actor as a surrogate nom. Either or!

[Ezen Baklattan]

Right now, I'll go ahead and say that ABDITN or JM is gonna be the people's choice winner at TIFF.

 

 

[CoolioD1]

10 minutes ago, Mr Pastaffelees said:

Right now, I'll go ahead and say that ABDITN or JM is gonna be the people's choice winner at TIFF.

 

 

i say jojo rabbit wins it and then best picture. that's my bet rn but who knows.

[Jake Gittes]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

 

If you got Parasite in picture don't count Bong out of director. Having seen the movie I could see him pulling a Haneke/Pawlikowski.

 

Johansson would be the first double nom in 12 years not 15 and the fact that she's never been nominated despite doing quality work for nearly two decades is a point in her favor. I'd say it'd have to be a shockingly weak supporting actress slate for Robbie to get in, and I like her a lot in the movie.

 

Best Director looks like a much less clear race than others rn. We're coming up on the 10th anniversary of Bigelow's win and I imagine we can get at least one female nominee this year but for eight straight years the winners have all been big-time directorial showcases and unless there's explicitly a push to reward a smaller intimate movie this year it's hard to see Heller going all the way. Mendes sounds like he could be an easy pick but we really can't know his chances until the movie's seen. Tarantino has the reconstruction-of-'69 aspect and the fact that this may well be their last chance to reward him in this category going for him, but the road would need to be clear and the controversies contained. Frankly I'm hoping for Scorsese, but then I did the same in 2016 and look where it got me. 

[Cmasterclay]

26 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

If you got Parasite in picture don't count Bong out of director. Having seen the movie I could see him pulling a Haneke/Pawlikowski.

 

Johansson would be the first double nom in 12 years not 15 and the fact that she's never been nominated despite doing quality work for nearly two decades is a point in her favor. I'd say it'd have to be a shockingly weak supporting actress slate for Robbie to get in, and I like her a lot in the movie.

 

Best Director looks like a much less clear race than others rn. We're coming up on the 10th anniversary of Bigelow's win and I imagine we can get at least one female nominee this year but for eight straight years the winners have all been big-time directorial showcases and unless there's explicitly a push to reward a smaller intimate movie this year it's hard to see Heller going all the way. Mendes sounds like he could be an easy pick but we really can't know his chances until the movie's seen. Tarantino has the reconstruction-of-'69 aspect and the fact that this may well be their last chance to reward him in this category going for him, but the road would need to be clear and the controversies contained. Frankly I'm hoping for Scorsese, but then I did the same in 2016 and look where it got me. 

Yea Bong would be a good look too, I have Wang in because I think they give some genuine momentum to female directors this year and because with Noah and Wang and Creston and Heller all potentially getting nominated I would think they would go "showier" with the other nominees for the reasons you said, hence QT. I don't think Mendes is gonna be that alternative, though. Maybe that movie will be good but idk feels like a bargin bin Dunkirk for now, would love to be proven wrong.  Mangold could be the designated showy/techy nom of the year, actually. Or Taika. Or even Grey. Because you're right - they do like the showier director choices. 

 

Shit I forgot Blanchett for Elizabeth/I'm Not There. I thought Foxx in 04 was the last one. Good catch. Not quite sure there is that much momentum for a ScarJo lovefest though. I don't think the same people that gave Green Book a win for Best Picture are gonna care about her putting her foot in her mouth on race a bunch, though.

[CoolioD1]

best director i'll say

 

1. Taika

2. QT

3. Scorsese

4. Bong

5. Baumbach

[Eric Atreides]

I don't know how Searchlight and its marketing/awards team works in a post-merger environment, and I'm probably complaining over nothing, but I'm still concerned over Disney handling Jojo Rabbit (and I guess Hidden Life too). You've already got an executive piss-scared over the movie's anti-Nazi message. Can't imagine how they would market and distribute something that isn't intended to sell dolls, princess costumes and Happy Meals to Academy members and arthouse theaters.

[CoolioD1]

more than likely they'll just let FS do their thing on this. i'm confident in jojo rabbit because it's kinda like Shape of Water in a way in that there's a lot of standard oscar bait stuff about it, but it's presented with a different coat of paint than the usual and from a "quirky" director so the academy members will think they're voting for something hip.

[TMP]

On 8/26/2019 at 12:21 AM, CoolioD1 said:

best director i'll say

 

1. Taika

2. QT

3. Scorsese

4. Bong

5. Baumbach

This seems right. I'd swap Taika & Baumbach's position though

[aabattery]

On 8/26/2019 at 8:21 AM, CoolioD1 said:

best director i'll say

 

1. Taika

2. QT

3. Scorsese

4. Bong

5. Baumbach

 

I'll take it.

[Cmasterclay]

Venice and Telluride this weekend! Marriage Story looks like a very real player, Ad Astra more a player to be fondly remembered in ten years than appreciated now.

 

The big Telluride premieres (lineup announced later today) have long expected to be Ford v. Ferrari, Motherless Brooklyn, The Aeronauts, Judy, The Two Popes, and Uncut Gems....but now, all of a sudden, it looks like the new Todd Haynes movie Dark Waters has not only gotten fast tracked for this year but is going to be debuting this weekend at Telluride. A potential late breaking player!

 

The big Venice movies left are Joker (lol), The Laundromat, The King, and Seberg. 

[Cmasterclay]

Annnnnnd I was wrong, no Dark Waters at Telluride.

[filmlover]

Telluride slate:

 

 

• THE AERONAUTS (d. Tom Harper, U.S.-U.K., 2019)
• THE ASSISTANT (d. Kitty Green, U.S., 2019)
• THE AUSTRALIAN DREAM (d. Daniel Gordon, Australia, 2019)
• BEANPOLE (Kantemir Balagov, Russia, 2019)
• THE CLIMB (d. Michael Angelo Covino, U.S., 2019)
• COUP 53 (d. Taghi Amirani, U.K., 2019)
• DIEGO MARADONA (d. Asif Kapadia, U.K., 2019)
• FAMILY ROMANCE, LLC (d. Werner Herzog, U.S. – Japan, 2019)
• FIRST COW (d. Kelly Reichardt, U.S., 2019)
• FORD v FERRARI (d. James Mangold, U.S., 2019)
• JUDY (d. Rupert Goold, U.K.-U.S., 2019)
• A HIDDEN LIFE (d. Terrence Malick, U.S. – Germany, 2019)
• THE HUMAN FACTOR (d. Dror Moreh, U.K., 2019)
• INSIDE BILL’S BRAIN (d. Davis Guggenheim, U.S., 2019)
• THE KINGMAKER (Lauren Greenfield, U.S., 2019)
• LYREBIRD (d. Dan Friedkin, U.S., 2019)
• MARRIAGE STORY (d. Noah Baumbach, U.S., 2019)
• MOTHERLESS BROOKLYN (d. Edward Norton, U.S., 2019)
• OLIVER SACKS: HIS OWN LIFE (d. Ric Burns, U.S., 2018)
• PAIN AND GLORY (d. Pedro Almodóvar, Spain, 2019)
• PARASITE (d. Bong Joon-ho, South Korea, 2019)
• PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE (d. Céline Sciamma, France, 2019)
• THE REPORT (d. Scott Z. Burns, U.S., 2019)
• TELL ME WHO I AM (d. Ed Perkins, U.K., 2019)
• THOSE WHO REMAINED (d. Barnabás Toth, Hungary, 2019)
• THE TWO POPES (d. Fernando Meirelles, U.K., 2019)
• UNCUT GEMS (d. Josh Safdie, Benny Safdie, U.S., 2019)
• VARDA BY AGNÈS (d. Agnès Varda, France, 2019)
• VERDICT (d. Raymond Ribay Gutierrez, Philippines, 2019)
• WAVES (d. Trey Edward Schultz, U.S., 2019)

 

https://www.indiewire.com/2019/08/telluride-film-festival-lineup-2019-1202169367/

[CoolioD1]

interested to hear about uncut gems and waves (the rumor is that the latter is entirely scored with Kanye songs???!?!). i doubt either does much with the awards but those are the only titles we haven't heard reactions to that jump out at me.

Edited August 29, 2019 by CoolioD1

[Valonqar]

On 8/27/2019 at 4:55 AM, TMP said:

This seems right. I'd swap Taika & Baumbach's position though

I actually think Taika could win. The line up looks right though I'm least sure about Scorcese. I know he's a name but he isn't an automatic nominee like Streep. 

[filmlover]

I'm just hoping Judy is well-received if nothing else (or at least avoids being a Diana-level flop). Renee deserves a proper comeback.

[Cmasterclay]

12 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

interested to hear about uncut gems and waves (the rumor is that the latter is entirely scored with Kanye songs???!?!). i doubt either does much with the awards but those are the only titles we haven't heard reactions to that jump out at me.

I am rooting for Waves because it was filmed entirely in Broward County. I heard not only is it all Kanye songs but it is continuous Kanye songs and they kind of Baby Driver it to set the entire rhythm of the movie to the songs. Tapley says he has heard good things.