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Best Picture Predictions - 2019

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16 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

interested to hear about uncut gems and waves (the rumor is that the latter is entirely scored with Kanye songs???!?!). i doubt either does much with the awards but those are the only titles we haven't heard reactions to that jump out at me.

Going by the Safdies' last film, Adam Sandler will give the best male performance of the year and get no awards recognition

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Honestly, outside of Marriage Story, the most likely Best Picture nom from the first few days might be....Waves or Ad Astra? Didn't expect that. Could see Ford v Ferrari doing it if it were to make 50m+ at the box office. Classically mounted movies like that have made it in before.

 

Also I am going to post this here because its the safer place than the main thread but if you read between the lines of some of these Joker reactions....I don't think so fam. Maybe Phoenix but that's it.

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17 minutes ago, Mr Pastaffelees said:

Waves might honestly be A24's best chance at an BP nom, from what I gather. Uncut Gems and The Lighthouse are likely gonna be too divisive.

 

I would rather have A24 only have one surefire Best Picture contender each year with the rest of its lineup being divisive films that are remembered for years, than have the distributor devolve into some strange youth-energized clone of the Weinstein company.

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20 minutes ago, Mr Pastaffelees said:

Waves might honestly be A24's best chance at an BP nom, from what I gather. Uncut Gems and The Lighthouse are likely gonna be too divisive.

i still think it's the farewell. feel like waves might fall under the radar.

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Metacritic scores so far for the contenders screened the past few days:

 

Marriage Story: 95

Waves: 91

Ad Astra: 81

Ford v Ferrari: 81

Joker: 75

Judy: 64

 

Feel like we need to wait and see how A24 handles the release of Waves first before determining what its chances are. Ad Astra probably has better chances as a tech player than as a major one, but I imagine it can only help the case for Pitt with OUATIH. Ford v Ferrari seems like the kind of movie that becomes a major player if it connects at the box office (fingers crossed). As for Joker and Judy, they are "lead acting nom and that's it" sort of deals.

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Also The Two Popes doesn't have much in the way of notices yet but reading this:


 

Quote

 

Little did the audience at the world premiere of “The Two Popes” know that the papal two-hander is actually very funny.

 

No, it’s not a comedy, but the jokes and ribbing between Pope Benedict XVI (Anthony Hopkins) and the future pope, Cardinal Bergoglio (Jonathan Pryce), played well in the packed Chuck Jones’ Cinema, as did hearing Abba’s “Dancing Queen” played over footage of the College of Cardinals making its way into the Vatican for the Papal election.

 

In other words, director Fernando Meirelles’ film, inspired by Pope Benedict XVI’s decision to resign and subsequent transfer of power to the more progressive Cardinal Bergoglio, is not a straight drama. Although the film did earn the audience’s admiration, and some sniffles toward its end.

 

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/in-contention/telluride-the-two-popes-premiere-1203320371/

 

Anthony McCarten has done it again!

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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Metacritic scores so far for the contenders screened the past few days:

 

Marriage Story: 95

Waves: 91

Ad Astra: 81

Ford v Ferrari: 81

Joker: 75

Judy: 64

 

Feel like we need to wait and see how A24 handles the release of Waves first before determining what its chances are. Ad Astra probably has better chances as a tech player than as a major one, but I imagine it can only help the case for Pitt with OUATIH. Ford v Ferrari seems like the kind of movie that becomes a major player if it connects at the box office (fingers crossed). As for Joker and Judy, they are "lead acting nom and that's it" sort of deals.

I think Joker has better odds than just Best Actor. Has a good chance at Best Picture nom if you ask me. WB also usually gets at least one film into the BP race every year (I think in the past decade, the only time they didn't was in 2016) and I'm betting it's this one. And could also get nominated for Adapted Screenplay eventhough it's the most flawed aspect of the whole movie (when Green Book won that, then I don't see why this film at the very least won't get nominated).

Edited by lorddemaxus
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42 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think Joker has better odds than just Best Actor. Has a good chance at Best Picture nom if you ask me. WB also usually gets at least one film into the BP race every year (I think in the past decade, the only time they didn't was in 2016) and I'm betting it's this one. And could also get nominated for Adapted Screenplay eventhough it's the most flawed aspect of the whole movie (when Green Book won that, then I don't see why this film at the very least won't get nominated).

I dunno, said it in the movie's thread but I think Gone Girl is a pretty fair comparison here. That also opened the first weekend of October and became both one of the biggest and most talked about movies of the year, on top of strong reviews and Fincher's previous three movies scoring major Oscar attention, but in the end found itself completely shut out aside from a Best Actress nom on the morning of nominations, most likely because the movie was too firmly rooted in a genre they haven't cared much for in the past. Granted we've seen comic book movies getting above the line nods in recent years between Logan's Adapted Screenplay nom two years ago (even if it was really helped by that category being super dead that year - who knows what would've won in that group had Call Me by Your Name been an original script) and of course Black Panther scoring a Best Picture nom last year thanks to a lot of below the line support, but Joker will almost certainly be a more controversial movie than either of those, so at the moment, I'm not betting on anything other than Actor and maybe a tech nom or two.

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I dunno, Joker definitely has a lot of passionate fans already (not talking about forum members or DC nerds, like actual critics and Venice attendees), and it feels like a movie that has all the stars aligning for it box office wise. I'm not predicting a Best Picture win, and I'm currently on the lower end as of now, but it feels like Vice where it can get in just through a passionate voter base.

Edited by Eric!
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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think Joker has better odds than just Best Actor. Has a good chance at Best Picture nom if you ask me. WB also usually gets at least one film into the BP race every year (I think in the past decade, the only time they didn't was in 2016) and I'm betting it's this one. And could also get nominated for Adapted Screenplay eventhough it's the most flawed aspect of the whole movie (when Green Book won that, then I don't see why this film at the very least won't get nominated).

I agree with this. They know that Phoenix win would be the win for the movie cause titular character and while I don't think he needs BP nom to win, it wouldn't hurt his chances. The movie won't be agreeable choice but passionate fans among voters will put it at #1 so that counts.

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31 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I dunno, said it in the movie's thread but I think Gone Girl is a pretty fair comparison here. That also opened the first weekend of October and became both one of the biggest and most talked about movies of the year, on top of strong reviews and Fincher's previous three movies scoring major Oscar attention, but in the end found itself completely shut out aside from a Best Actress nom on the morning of nominations, most likely because the movie was too firmly rooted in a genre they haven't cared much for in the past. Granted we've seen comic book movies getting above the line nods in recent years between Logan's Adapted Screenplay nom two years ago (even if it was really helped by that category being super dead that year - who knows what would've won in that group had Call Me by Your Name been an original script) and of course Black Panther scoring a Best Picture nom last year thanks to a lot of below the line support, but Joker will almost certainly be a more controversial movie than either of those, so at the moment, I'm not betting on anything other than Actor and maybe a tech nom or two.

Right now, I think it has a chance at 4 nominations - Actor (pretty much locked), Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Editing.

 

I think the biggest difference between today and 2014/2015 is that there are a lot more younger votes (also the reason why I think Parasite has a clear shot at winning Foreign Film).

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2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

I agree with this. They know that Phoenix win would be the win for the movie cause titular character and while I don't think he needs BP nom to win, it wouldn't hurt his chances. The movie won't be agreeable choice but passionate fans among voters will put it at #1 so that counts.

I think Best Actor, Cinematography and  Best Adapted screenplay are in favour of Joker. Plus, the marketing has not been highlighting the DC brand, and 've been very award bodies' friendly with Sorcesese reference and Robert Deniro in the cast  

 

If there is a group of passionate supporters, judging from its initial reaction, likely there will be, the movie will sneak in.    

 

Plus, it will be great chance for the academy to make up their "snub" on TDK.

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26 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I think Best Actor, Cinematography and  Best Adapted screenplay are in favour of Joker. Plus, the marketing has not been highlighting the DC brand, and 've been very award bodies' friendly with Sorcesese reference and Robert Deniro in the cast  

 

If there is a group of passionate supporters, judging from its initial reaction, likely there will be, the movie will sneak in.    

 

Plus, it will be great chance for the academy to make up their "snub" on TDK.

Agreed. Also, as many nominated genre blockbusters thought us, boxoffice + campaign + enough passionate 100s on MC = BP nom. BAFTA and DGA are likely to snub it like BP but it has a shot with GG, PGA and finally Oscars. since it's one man show, SAG Ensemble is out of question (but it doesn't equal BP win anyway) but Phoenix should be their catnip especially since SAG is now mixed with non actors. They are more open to non-traditional movies and perfs.

Edited by Valonqar
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