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CAYOM Y5 - Discussion Thread

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Sight unseen (i.e., not knowing how good either it or its surrounding competition are), my very early domestic projection for Voltron: Reunion would be around $470 million. That's based on oodles of historical data about how third entries in a series actually perform when the second was a big improvement, financially, over the first. The third movie keeping the improvement going is an extreme anomaly reserved almost exclusively for concluding chapters of trilogies.

 

I can post my spreadsheet if anyone feels like balking at me :P

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4 hours ago, Xillix said:

Sight unseen (i.e., not knowing how good either it or its surrounding competition are), my very early domestic projection for Voltron: Reunion would be around $470 million. That's based on oodles of historical data about how third entries in a series actually perform when the second was a big improvement, financially, over the first. The third movie keeping the improvement going is an extreme anomaly reserved almost exclusively for concluding chapters of trilogies.

 

I can post my spreadsheet if anyone feels like balking at me :P

I would like to see the spreadsheet.

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6 minutes ago, Reddroast said:

No. However i wanted someone who has passion for the source material to work on it and he was the first name to pop in my head.

I get it, you could’ve used https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masahiro_Sakurai as well since he created Kirby, however I’m still excited to read it and am intrigued by the choices.

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I’m the most curious about Scavenger Wars II and SkyRiders performance. I’m confident the former will have a healthy jump and a big OW but I’m curious on how much (that said I’m still guessing $400M-$550M range for it), and the latter is the first PG-13 animated action tentpole but if WOM is great, I see To The Moon numbers.

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10 minutes ago, Xillix said:

In a sane world the R rating and competitive December opening should mute the opening of TSW2 significantly. If it's great though it has an opportunity for an excellent hold.

I’m actually feel that it’s more likely to increase, it was the best recieved space opera and had the same older skewing audience of say Odyssey, which although the finale factor helped the third installment was an R rated mega hit.

 

Besides December will clear up as the schedule clear up.

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43 minutes ago, Xillix said:

In a sane world the R rating and competitive December opening should mute the opening of TSW2 significantly. If it's great though it has an opportunity for an excellent hold.

 

If you're looking for sane box office, you've come to the wrong place.

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14 minutes ago, Xillix said:

There will be a touch of course correction Y6 in that regard :P

Don’t kill Tintin. 

 

 

Actually I’m okay with a more traditional year as Y5 will be big.

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All I'll say about Y5 actuals is that I will be fair in judging the performance of each individual film.

 

Also...

Quote

1.) Voltron: Reunion: $220M/$600M

2.) The Eternal Storm: The Scavenger Wars II: $140M/$500M

3.) One Punch Man: $150M (five day)/$380M

4.) Two Lonely Bounty Hunters: $100M/$370M

5.) Pokémon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy: $160M/$350M

6.) Pillars of Eternity: Never Far From The Queen: $125M/$300M 

7.) Who Recycled Roger Rabbit: $90M/$285M

8.) Phoenix: Rebirth: $85M/$260M

9.) The Secret Saturdays/Star Fox: $90M/$250M

10.) Dragon Ball: The Red Ribbon Saga: $100M/$250M

 

$249M-$200M: (in no certain order)

Children Of Eden, The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl, Medusa, American Dragon 3, DragonBorns, Green Lantern Corps: Hunted, SkyRiders, Countdown To Extinction, In The Valley, Scadanavia

 

$199M-$150M:

Kirby, Bartimaeus 2, Artifacts, Perfect Match, Bambi, Shiverin’ Gulch, Friday the 13th, Inspect Gadget, Lightspeed, Animated Space Musical, Heroes Within, Valkyries vs Galaxy, Olive, He-Man III, Episilon

 

$149M-$100M:

Rita, Yin, Everest, War movie, Galileo, Banana Fish, Earthsong II, Associates, Rock N Roll, and a few indies.

 

I'm not gonna be this generous with giving out $100 million plus 😂

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17 minutes ago, Rorschach said:

All I'll say about Y5 actuals is that I will be fair in judging the performance of each individual film.

 

Also...

 

I'm not gonna be this generous with giving out $100 million plus 😂

I also admit I was a bit generous in my predictions

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