Thursday Numbers: AQM $6.20M | MPR $3.95M | Spider-Verse $3.10M | Bumblebee $2.66M

[sfran43]

 

Edited January 4, 2019 by sfran43

[TMP]

could see a big weekend jump; $30m+ 3 day wouldn't surprise me 

[a2k]

15 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

"may jump to 255+"... 26+/255+ is the floor

8.1 (+30%) // this is abnormally low though. Hobbit1 did bump only 35% in 2012 but looks like an exception.

11.3 (+40%)

6.8 (-40%)

= 26.2

Edited January 4, 2019 by a2k

[MaxAggressor]

Aquaman's drop w.r.t 2nd Wednesday is 16.2%.

 

Jack Reacher, NATM 2 & Hobbit 1 (3rd Wednesday) dropped 10.4%, 16.4% & 13.7% respectively.

[WrathOfHan]

GLASS TICKETS ARE ON SALE Just got a seat for opening night in Dolby

[lorddemaxus]

10 minutes ago, a2k said:

 

"may jump to 255+"... 26+/255+ is the floor

8.1 (+30%)

11.3 (+40%)

6.8 (-40%)

= 26.2

Those seem like horrible holds. I think its going to increase more than 40% on Friday

Edited January 4, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[MaxAggressor]

Aquaman's 2nd weekend FSS was 3.56x it's 1st Thursday.

 

Using a similar method JR, NATM 2 & Hobbit 1's (post Boxing Day) FSS were 3.7x, 3.4x & 3.2x.

 

Nao applying the same method to their respective 3rd weekend FSS w.r.t their 2nd Thursday we get 5.4x, 5.6x & 4.6x.

 

So using Hobbit 1 as a comp, Aquaman's 3rd weekend gets to 28.5m which is the base while using NATM2 gets it to 34.7m and that's the ceiling. That's a big range but it's what I'm coming up with atm.

[reddevil19]

In line with expectations. Was hoping for an even 15%, but still around there, haha. Friday increase is the real test. It could finish the weekend as high as 32, but could easily be in the low 20's as well. This weekend will also be crucial for its 300 million run. Interesting weekend from that perspective. 

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, MaxAggressor said:

Aquaman's 2nd weekend FSS was 3.56x it's 1st Thursday.

 

Using a similar method JR, NATM 2 & Hobbit 1's (post Boxing Day) FSS were 3.7x, 3.4x & 3.2x.

 

Nao applying the same method to their respective 3rd weekend FSS w.r.t their 2nd Thursday we get 5.4x, 5.6x & 4.6x.

 

So using Hobbit 1 as a comp, Aquaman's 3rd weekend gets to 28.5m which is the base while using NATM2 gets it to 34.7m and that's the ceiling. That's a big range but it's what I'm coming up with atm.

That 28 million is the median. Could easily be under 25, if Friday's increase is low. I'm still banking on 60% increase, and over 30 weekend, but can easily see the opposite happening. 

[Manny G]

4 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

In line with expectations. Was hoping for an even 15%, but still around there, haha. Friday increase is the real test. It could finish the weekend as high as 32, but could easily be in the low 20's as well. This weekend will also be crucial for its 300 million run. Interesting weekend from that perspective. 

Interesting as in how far beyond $300M it will reach, not as it will it reach it that’s a lock.

[MaxAggressor]

Just now, reddevil19 said:

That 28 million is the median. Could easily be under 25, if Friday's increase is low. I'm still banking on 60% increase, and over 30 weekend, but can easily see the opposite happening. 

Even The Last Jedi with it's tepid WoM managed a 50% bump (Insidious 4 was a bigger opener last year than Escape Room is shaping up to be and TLJ was being overshadowed by Jumanji 2 by this time last year) on it's 1st Friday of 2018. I think Aquaman will at-least come close to matching it in terms of the percentage increase on Friday.

[efialtes76]

6 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

In line with expectations. Was hoping for an even 15%, but still around there, haha. Friday increase is the real test. It could finish the weekend as high as 32, but could easily be in the low 20's as well. This weekend will also be crucial for its 300 million run. Interesting weekend from that perspective. 

Low 20's? 

Aquaman won't increase less than 30% on Friday. 

 

[reddevil19]

Just now, MaxAggressor said:

Even The Last Jedi with it's tepid WoM managed a 50% bump (Insidious 4 was a bigger opener last year than Escape Room is shaping up to be and TLJ was being overshadowed by Jumanji 2 by this time last year) on it's 1st Friday of 2018. I think Aquaman will at-least come close to matching it in terms of the percentage increase on Friday.

As I said, I'm banking on around 60%, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities for the worst case scenario to occur here. That's why I find it interesting - it will be one of the movie's biggest tests in terms of establishing its legs and how far it can go. 30 million+ and I don't see how it missed Deadpool 2. Less than 25, and... I could se eit stalling under 300. I certainly hope it makes it, but until the numbers come in, I don't want to be overconfident. 

 

As I said, it will be interesting regardless. 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[MaxAggressor]

https://deadline.com/2019/01/aquaman-escape-room-weekend-box-office-first-weekend-2019-1202529013/

 

Disney’s Mary Poppins Returns is eyeing a third weekend of $21M after a $3.95M Thursday, -11%, for a running total of $122.95M.

[Manny G]

8 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

https://deadline.com/2019/01/aquaman-escape-room-weekend-box-office-first-weekend-2019-1202529013/

 

Disney’s Mary Poppins Returns is eyeing a third weekend of $21M after a $3.95M Thursday, -11%, for a running total of $122.95M.

Isn’t it a bit high for MPR? $21M I mean.

[sfran43]

 

[Brinatico]

1 hour ago, Manny G said:

Isn’t it a bit high for MPR? $21M I mean.

They keep trying to sell MPR like the season winner. 

Last weekend was the same, predicting over 30 and fell short. 

If flopping make 18M this weekend is a win 

[sfran43]