Weekend Thread: Actuals - AQM $31M | Escape Room $18.24M | MPR $15.86M | Bumblebee $13.20M | Spider-Verse $13.13M

[MrGlass2]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Aquaman is a fucking behemoth. I can only imagine it resonated this well especially with OS because it really seems to be a gigantic, dumb, fun spectacle and has no problems with it. Stuckmann (who is one of the few YouTube critics I respect) described it as a 90's cheesy blockbuster with anime flavor.

Nah it's because superhero movies are very hot at the moment, and Aquaman is the best superhero movie of the year.

[MrGlass2]

OS Top 10 2018:

 

1	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	$2,048.7	$678.8	33.1%	$1,369.9	66.9%
3	Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	Uni.	$1,308.5	$416.8	31.9%	$891.8	68.1%
5	Aquaman	WB	$940.7	$259.7	27.6%	$681.0	72.4%
2	Black Panther	BV	$1,346.9	$700.1	52.0%	$646.9	48.0%
6	Venom (2018)	Sony	$855.5	$213.4	24.9%	$642.1	75.1%
4	Incredibles 2	BV	$1,242.6	$608.6	49.0%	$634.0	51.0%
13	Operation Red Sea	WGUSA	$579.2	$1.5	0.3%	$577.7	99.7%
7	Mission: Impossible - Fallout	Par.	$791.0	$220.2	27.8%	$570.9	72.2%
8	Bohemian Rhapsody	Fox	$743.7	$193.7	26.0%	$550.0	74.0%
14	Detective Chinatown 2	WB	$544.1	$2.0	0.4%	$542.1	99.6%

[That One Girl]

3 hours ago, TMP said:

re: to anyone who's seen Bohemian Rhapsody, is it really just Walk Hard without the jokes? 

 

I haven't seen Walk Hard, but it hits every single beat you expect it to hit in the most unsatisfactory way possible, all with multiple factual errors for forced dramatic tension.  It's also both way too stylish and not stylish enough at the same time; an incredible feat that I didn't even know was possible.

 

Also great that it treats Mercury's homosexuality as if it's a villain he has to overcome.

[Brainbug]

I kind of think Jurassic World 2's OS gross doesnt get enough recognition. Dropping only 127M from JW's massive gross is really, really excellent.

[KP1025]

18 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I kind of think Jurassic World 2's OS gross doesnt get enough recognition. Dropping only 127M from JW's massive gross is really, really excellent.

And with much worse ER in the UK (JW's second biggest OS market) and Latin America too. Growth in China definitely helped. Bodes well for future of the franchise.

Edited January 6, 2019 by KP1025

[MCKillswitch123]

37 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Nah it's because superhero movies are very hot at the moment, and Aquaman is the best superhero movie of the year.

Your second point being obviously subjective aside (though you do raise the question of word of mouth, which is valid), I'd say it's those two points as well as the importance of being a huge, gigantic four-quad-appealing spectacle of pure visually stunning superhero bombast + lead actors that are attractive to the respective eyes of the many different demographics... that's playing in the holiday season. Fun blockbusters with huge anticipation/brands attached to them released in the holidays are probably the most fail proof ways of making a billion or close to it... Jumanji last year, Force Awakens hitting 2 billion, etc..

 

It makes me wonder what Ant-Man And The Wasp would've done in the holiday season - probably wouldn't be anywhere near as frontloaded as it was, which certainly has to do with how self-cornered and small scale it was, which helped it play more like a niche movie made for fanboys than the typical wide appeal of superhero films.... I imagine. I think it could've hit 750-800M, maybe. I mean, if an Aquaman solo can go north of 1.1 billion and become the DC brand's biggest film ever, don't see why AMATW wouldn't do that kind of numbers with the holiday steroids.

Edited January 6, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[reddevil19]

As much as I thought the movie was meh, FK's box office is very impressive. It gets a bad rep similar to Age of Ultron, where there was an inevitable drop domestically, but still puts up huge numbers and is a beast internationally (in pretty much every market). But because it DID drop, and it's seen as a qualitative drop as well (tbh, I think that's unfair for FK, as the first JW is equally blah imo), its success just sort of gets shrugged off and ignored.

[MrGlass2]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

It makes me wonder what Ant-Man And The Wasp would've done in the holiday season - probably wouldn't be anywhere near as frontloaded as it was, which certainly has to do with how self-cornered and small scale it was, which helped it play more like a niche movie made for fanboys than the typical wide appeal of superhero films.... I imagine. I think it could've hit 750-800M, maybe. I mean, if an Aquaman solo can go north of 1.1 billion and become the DC brand's biggest film ever, don't see why AMATW wouldn't do that kind of numbers with the holiday steroids.

Since when is July a bad release date for blockbusters? If anything, AntMan2 would have suffered more from MPR and Bumblebee competition than Aquaman did (in this unprovable hypothetical, let's say MPR didn't move).

 

AntMan2 did badly (for a superhero movie in 2018) because it was presented as a "palate cleanser" that people didn't need to watch - so they didn't.

[MCKillswitch123]

10 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

As much as I thought the movie was meh, FK's box office is very impressive. It gets a bad rep similar to Age of Ultron, where there was an inevitable drop domestically, but still puts up huge numbers and is a beast internationally (in pretty much every market). But because it DID drop, and it's seen as a qualitative drop as well (tbh, I think that's unfair for FK, as the first JW is equally blah imo), its success just sort of gets shrugged off and ignored.

To a degree you're right, but Fallen Kingdom's bad rep is nowhere near as big as Ultron's, though, because it was a way more predictable drop from its original - a lot of us thought Ultron would increase from Avengers and reach for close to 2B WW  And FK had much, MUCH better legs than Ultron did. It did great, no ifs and buts about it; it flat out did great.

 

That being said, I've been saying/thinking this for a while: box office-wise, Ultron deserves more credit than it gets, because it's global total not only outgrossed Fallen Kingdom and especially The Last Jedi - two other sequels to movies that opened to 200M+ DOM, and totaled 600M+ NA/1.5B+ WW - but it had a way better drop from its predecessor. It lost roughly 100M from Avengers; JW2 lost 300 from JW1, and TLJ lost 700 from TFA. And it is, alongside it's two - soon to be three - Avengers flick comrades in the all-time WW top 10. So.... yeah, not bad.

Edited January 6, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[kitik]

Just a Friendly Neighborhood Reminder to vote for the 10 movies you're most looking forward to this year over in the most anticipated movies thread.

 

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/667-box-office-theorys-most-anticipated-films/?page=360

 

Now's a good time to pick your top 10 for 2019.

[Webslinger]

Aquaman continues to put up an impressive domestic performance and especially muscular overseas numbers. It should be in line for another strong hold and a fourth #1 finish next weekend and should be able to hit at least $320 million domestically.

 

Escape Room is the practically annual low-budget January horror mini-breakout (lots of overly narrow adjectives there, but it is a thing). It probably won't have much staying power, but it doesn't need to against a meager $9 million budget.

 

Mary Poppins Returns had a rougher drop than I expected it would. Its hopes of a $200 million domestic total have been greatly diminished, but it could still ride minimal family competition to a total north of $175 million; legs in line with Sing - which had an even bigger drop in its first post-holiday weekend - would put it a little over $180 million.

 

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and Bumblebee both had strong holds. Each film has performed impressively in a crowded marketplace where Aquaman has gobbled up so much of the attention.

 

The Mule continues to put up a quietly impressive run, buoyed by another expansion this weekend. It's looking at surpassing the $100 million milestone.

[KP1025]

4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

That being said, I've been saying/thinking this for a while: box office-wise, Ultron deserves more credit than it gets, because it's global total not only did outgrossed Fallen Kingdom and especially The Last Jedi - two other sequels to movies that opened to 200M+ DOM, and totaled 600M+ NA/1.5B+ WW - but it had a way better drop from its predecessor. It lost roughly 100M from Avengers; JW2 lost 300 from JW1, and TLJ lost 700 from TFA. And it is, alongside it's two - soon to be three - Avengers flick comrades in the all-time WW top 10. So.... yeah, not bad.

One caveat is that Avengers was released when the China market was still much smaller. It only grossed $86 million there after all compared to $240 million for Age of Ultron. But even with a similar China gross, Age of Ultron would still have dropped less than $300 million. 

[MCKillswitch123]

19 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Since when is July a bad release date for blockbusters? If anything, AntMan2 would have suffered more from MPR and Bumblebee competition than Aquaman did (in this unprovable hypothetical, let's say MPR didn't move).

 

AntMan2 did badly (for a superhero movie in 2018) because it was presented as a "palate cleanser" that people didn't need to watch - so they didn't.

Fair enough points.

Edited January 6, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[DeeCee]

On 1/5/2019 at 12:22 PM, JJ-8 said:

woah… that a massive opening day for Dragon 3.  I thought 1.2 - 1.5m at best. When you consider the following:

 

How to train your dragon - 2.7m OW

How to train your dragon 2 - 3.6m OW

How to train your dragon 3 - 2.2m OD (should translate to 6m+ ~ would go higher but not sure of the impact of holidays on the weekend numbers)

 

then consider the domestic openings of Dragon :

 

Dragon - 2.7m vs 43.7m

Dragon 2 - 3.6m vs 49.5m

Dragon 3 - 6m vs ? 70m possible ?

 

 

EDIT : Dragon 2 isn't an apples for apples as it had burnt off 5m of demand prior to the opening weekend. so maybe i'm a little over the top here.... still an impressive opening day however.

 

3 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

@DeeCee @aabattery This a good opening? How does it compare with other Dreamworks movies?

AUD6.66m. 

 

OW almost double the last one.  

[Johnny Tran]

36 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I think it could've hit 750-800M, maybe. I mean, if an Aquaman solo can go north of 1.1 billion and become the DC brand's biggest film ever, don't see why AMATW wouldn't do that kind of numbers with the holiday steroids.

AMATW had zero competition.  It finished where it did because that's how many people wanted to see it.  

[Zakiyyah6]

Ant-Man and The Wasp didn't have a ton of competition

 

Anyway,  happy to see DC bounce back. Poppins will make money but I'm not impressed with its gross,  especially considering how over predicted it was. Honestly I only over predicted it because I gave so little a shit about the project that I played follow the leader. At the end of the day, that's my fault though. No one elses.  

Edited January 6, 2019 by Zakiyyah6

[JB33]

Yeah, ANT-MAN AND THE WASP did about as well as it could. It just came in the aftermath of the mega epic that was IW and it was one of Marvel Studios' weaker offerings on top of that. It all added up to a box office result that was solid, if not unspectacular.

[Jonwo]

46 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

The Mule continues to put up a quietly impressive run, buoyed by another expansion this weekend. It's looking at surpassing the $100 million milestone.

The Mule has been WB's other successful film in the holidays. Does prove that their slate is more than just tentpoles. 

[Neucentro]

That's a good drop for Vice. Can it get to $50m?

[Godzilla]

24 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

That's a good drop for Vice. Can it get to $50m?

Probably will depend on how well it does during awards season.