Weekend Thread: Actuals - AQM $31M | Escape Room $18.24M | MPR $15.86M | Bumblebee $13.20M | Spider-Verse $13.13M

[Impact]

I liked Ant Man and Wasp more then Aquaman, but I liked Aquaman more then other Marvel films (I probably have Avengers, Ant Man 2, Aquaman ranked in that order for 2018 superhero films)

(Sorry I found Black Panther overrated, it was good but not the best ever, didn't even have my favorite Marvel villain not named Thanos/Ultron/Loki)

[grim22]

The Numbers expected versus actual performance for Aquaman is funny

 

[Impact]

I have to laugh at how bad Holmes and Watson is doing.

[movieboner]

Can Aquaman take out Civil War and Skyfall worldwide? That would be glorious. 

[Premium George]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

The Numbers expected versus actual performance for Aquaman is funny

 

Isn't numbers very wrong here too? Giving such short legs seeing it is December.

[MrGlass2]

2 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Isn't numbers very wrong here too? Giving such short legs seeing it is December.

It seems safe to say they ignore the release date when they calculate their fancy graphs.

[Taruseth]

10 minutes ago, grim22 said:

The Numbers expected versus actual performance for Aquaman is funny

 

It's an average regardless of release date.

But those legs really are impressive compared to that.

[Steele131]

Aquaman is 259M after 17 days so 330M domestic should be locked. Other CBMs on day 17 of release. 

 

Spiderman homcoming - 251M

GOTG Vol 1 - 221M

Suicide Squad - 262M

Deadpool 2 - 254M

Thor Ragnorak - 247M

[AdamKendall]

16 minutes ago, movieboner said:

Can Aquaman take out Civil War and Skyfall worldwide? That would be glorious. 

VERY VERY outside chance it could reach Skyfall, but will probably miss it.  IMO almost zero shot at Civil War unless it unexpectedly blew up in Japan (which it almost certainly won't)

 

The goal should be passing The Dark Knight Rises at 1.084 and get to #24 all time.

[VTKajin]

It's still outperforming expectations overseas, so it will definitely get very close to CW. $1.1B+ is almost guaranteed provided it keeps playing like NT2 domestically. A great-but-not-wildly-insane performance in Japan would put it in spitting distance of CW and give it a real shot and beating it. 

[Barnack]

16 hours ago, katniss said:

Yeah, I just went with the rule of thumb to add about 50% to a production budget to get the total budget, so 130 million production budget and 70 million for P/A for an even 200 million total cost.

 

I am not sure where that rules of thumb come from, but it look extremely optimistic imo, completely underestimate the movie total budgets.

 

 

In the 10 year's or so of leaked accounting of sony, they spent 28 B on the movie they made/released, breakdown of cost looked like this:

 

Source of expense	Total	%
DTH MARKETING	(5,866,385) $	21%
DTH PRINTS COS	(871,294) $	3%
DTH WPF DUES OTHER COS	(340,165) $	1%
ITH MARKETING	(2,601,562) $	9%
ITH PRINTS (COS)	(1,062,961) $	4%
ITH WPF, FREIGHT, OTHER (COS)	(270,762) $	1%
DHE MARKETING	(1,044,398) $	4%
DHE RELEASING COSTS - MFG COS	(1,280,725) $	5%
IHE MARKETING	(486,013) $	2%
IHE RELEASING COSTS - MFG COS	(820,764) $	3%
TV MARKETING	(43,802) $	0%
TV OTHER COSTS COS	(68,834) $	0%
DIRECT PRODUCTION COSTS	(9,256,003) $	33%
OVERHEAD	(808,450) $	3%
PARTICIPATIONS	(2,234,617) $	8%
RESIDUALS	(1,024,544) $	4%
Total	(28,081,279) $	100%

 

In average you had to add 200% of the production budget to get to it's final cost has they tend to be around just 33% of a movie total expense, obviously higher the budget lower that amount get, but your total cost estimate for MPR is not much above a small movie like Moneyball (170M) and below a Captain Philips (225m).

 

At certain point in the late 2000, the budget for prints alone of wide world release was of $70m.

[Celedhring]

41 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

It's an average regardless of release date.

But those legs really are impressive compared to that.

Always wondered by The Numbers don't try to do more with those graphs. Something really basic as just using the average of films released that month would yield much more useful results and probably would not be that hard to code. They have enough data to produce a decent average.

[Krissykins]

Just watched Wonder Woman in 4K. I hadn’t seen it for a while and it is just incredible.

 

I really really love that film. 

[The Futurist]

15 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Just watched Wonder Woman in 4K. I hadn’t seen it for a while and it is just incredible.

 

I really really love that film. 

I condemn you to watch only the third act on repeat until the end of days.

[katniss]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

 

I am not sure where that rules of thumb come from, but it look extremely optimistic imo, completely underestimate the movie total budgets.

 

 

In the 10 year's or so of leaked accounting of sony, they spent 28 B on the movie they made/released, breakdown of cost looked like this:

 

Source of expense	Total	%
DTH MARKETING	(5,866,385) $	21%
DTH PRINTS COS	(871,294) $	3%
DTH WPF DUES OTHER COS	(340,165) $	1%
ITH MARKETING	(2,601,562) $	9%
ITH PRINTS (COS)	(1,062,961) $	4%
ITH WPF, FREIGHT, OTHER (COS)	(270,762) $	1%
DHE MARKETING	(1,044,398) $	4%
DHE RELEASING COSTS - MFG COS	(1,280,725) $	5%
IHE MARKETING	(486,013) $	2%
IHE RELEASING COSTS - MFG COS	(820,764) $	3%
TV MARKETING	(43,802) $	0%
TV OTHER COSTS COS	(68,834) $	0%
DIRECT PRODUCTION COSTS	(9,256,003) $	33%
OVERHEAD	(808,450) $	3%
PARTICIPATIONS	(2,234,617) $	8%
RESIDUALS	(1,024,544) $	4%
Total	(28,081,279) $	100%

 

In average you had to add 200% of the production budget to get to it's final cost has they tend to be around just 33% of a movie total expense, obviously higher the budget lower that amount get, but your total cost estimate for MPR is not much above a small movie like Moneyball (170M) and below a Captain Philips (225m).

 

At certain point in the late 2000, the budget for prints alone of wide world release was of $70m.

 

WOW.  The rule of thumb was just stuff i read here and on the Net, you're supposed to add 50-100 percent of a movie's production budget to get actual total costs.  I went with 50% just to be conservative.  I never imagined the marketing budget would be 200% the production budget.  Damn.  

 

Is there any chance that studios have ways to reduce the total cost of movies that aren't accounted for here? For example, even though Sony spent 19 billion on non production budget costs as stated here, are there any items like film production tax credits that would help offset this ginormous amount?  

 

 

 

[TMP]

WB is the only studio that can fuck up easy wins like BvS/Justice League/Harry Potter spin-offs, but then make ungodly amounts of money for films like Gravity/It/Wonder Woman/AQUAMAN. 

[Barnack]

16 minutes ago, katniss said:

 

WOW.  The rule of thumb was just stuff i read here and on the Net, you're supposed to add 50-100 percent of a movie's production budget to get actual total costs.  I went with 50% just to be conservative.  I never imagined the marketing budget would be 200% the production budget.  Damn.  

 

Is there any chance that studios have ways to reduce the total cost of movies that aren't accounted for here? For example, even though Sony spent 19 billion on non production budget costs as stated here, are there any items like film production tax credits that would help offset this ginormous amount?

 

Tax credits are a reason production cost are only 33% of the total cost, they are in studios movie accounting used to reduce a production cost, not added has a revenues, same tend to go for product placement if money is involved. The number here is the Net production cost, post rebate, not gross.

 

Marketing isn't 200% of the production budget, only 110% of it in average if you include all marketing occurring, there is many non marketing, non production cost involved with a movie (in the past obviously prints, but now print like prime paid to help theater transfer to digital, participation bonus, overhead to pay for the world distribution studio expense and so on)

[TMP]

I always assumed P&A was normally broken even with TV/streaming rights & blu-ray/digital sales, but I didn't know the spending was so bloated

[Barnack]

26 minutes ago, TMP said:

I always assumed P&A was normally broken even with TV/streaming rights & blu-ray/digital sales, but I didn't know the spending was so bloated

At least during that time, that not really what happened, TV/PPV, DVD-blu ray sales, EST and rentals were way bigger than P&A cost, there jobs were not to broke even the theatrical releasing cost of a movie, that were the money was actually made.

 

Source of expense	Total
DTH MARKETING	$5.866.385
DTH PRINTS COS	$871.294
DTH WPF DUES OTHER COS	$340.165
ITH MARKETING	$2.601.562
ITH PRINTS (COS)	$1.062.961
ITH WPF, FREIGHT, OTHER (COS)	$2.708
DHE MARKETING	$1.044.398
IHE MARKETING	$486.013
TV MARKETING	$43.802
Total	$12.319.288
Source of revenues
DOMESTIC HOME ENT REVENUE	$7.151.339
DOMESTIC HOME ENT PPV REVENUE	$591.133
INTL HOME ENT REVENUE	$3.167.917
INTL HOME ENT PPV REVENUE	$173.369
DOMESTIC TV PPV REVENUE	$263.639
DOMESTIC PAY TV REVENUE	$1.656.035
DOMESTIC FREE TV REVENUE	$1.088.838
INTERNATIONAL TELEVISION	$4.659.861
Total	$18.752.131

 

 

Lot and lot of money in international TV.

 

Source of revenues looked like this:

 

Source of revenue	Amount	%
Domestic Theatrical	5,359,831	18%
Intl theatrical	4,896,173	17%
DOMESTIC HOME ENT REVENUE	7,151,339	24%
DOMESTIC HOME ENT PPV REVENUE	591,133	2%
INTL HOME ENT REVENUE	3,167,917	11%
INTL HOME ENT PPV REVENUE	173,369	1%
DOMESTIC TV PPV REVENUE	263,639	1%
DOMESTIC PAY TV REVENUE	1,656,035	6%
DOMESTIC FREE TV REVENUE	1,088,838	4%
INTERNATIONAL TELEVISION	4,659,861	16%
AIRLINES AND MUSIC	217,513	1%
CONSUMER PRODUCTS REVENUE	270,395	1%
Total	$29,496,043

 

 

Theatrical being a little bit of an higher percentage of the revenues (35%) than the production budget (33%) are for the expense, with studio getting around 50% of the box office explain why the rules of thumb of doubling your budget at the box office to break even work.

 

We do not have recent leak to see the trends, but at least according to studio annual financial statement (most studio break down revenues from theatrical, home ent, TV, merchandising) it didn't change much since the DVD crashed post 2005 peak, when theatrical could down below 22% of total revenues during the peak.

 

Has you can see Sony spent more in theatrical release (P&A) that they got back from theatrical revenues domestic, making the expression "turn a profit from theater or you are failure type of talk look extremely silly", for many movie making what it cost to release it back from ticket sales alone is already a big success, let alone starting to pay for it production, overhead and so fort, the next much more profitable windows are there for that.

 

Edited January 7, 2019 by Barnack

[efialtes76]

5 hours ago, DeeCee said:

 

AUD6.66m. 

 

OW almost double the last one.  

Yup but HTTY2 had amazing legs.