Weekend Thread: Actuals - AQM $31M | Escape Room $18.24M | MPR $15.86M | Bumblebee $13.20M | Spider-Verse $13.13M

[MCKillswitch123]

On one hand, that is a great number, and in normal circumstances, this would be a phenomenal indication of a breakout.

 

On the other, 4PM previews. Might as well just open the movie on Thursday at that point, because accounting 8 hours of previews as part of Friday is ludicrous imo.

 

Regardless, every early January horror movie overperforms, it seems, and I feel like Escape Room will at least challenge a 20M OW, which is above most, if not all expectations.

Edited January 4, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[Eric Atreides]

https://deadline.com/2019/01/aquaman-escape-room-weekend-box-office-first-weekend-2019-1202529013/

 

Quote

With schools still off for the holiday break, the studios can rely on continued traffic and this weekend at this point in time we’re seeing Warner Bros.’ Aquaman at $26.2M, -50% after a third Friday of $8M, with a running total of $255.2M. The DC superhero has already beat the lifetime U.S./Canada $229M take and global haul of Justice League and will see a $300M stateside tally sometime after MLK. But given Aquaman‘s momentum here, and seeing how Warners pushed Batman v. Superman and Suicide Squad past the three-century mark, you better believe they’re going to get this Jason Momoa film past that threshold. Soon enough, he’ll cross $900M WW by end of this weekend.

 

Coming off of a great Thursday night, Sony’s horror thriller Escape Room in industry estimate is looking at a $15.8M opening after a $6.8M Friday that includes yesterday’s $2.3M.  That said, many are projecting that the Adam Robitel movie files third behind Disney’s Mary Poppins Returns which is eyeing a third session of $18.4M, -35% for a running total of $141.3M, which would be 84% of the running total of The Greatest Showman at the same point in time. Escape Room is at 50% Rotten on Rotten Tomatoes.

 

Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is looking at an industry estimated $12.2M fourth frame, -35% for a running total by Sunday of $133M. Paramount’s third weekend of Bumblebee is just below with $12M, -43% for a running total by Sunday of $96.3M. Warner Bros.’ The Mule is seeing $7.5M in weekend 4, with a running total of $79.5M. It would be great if WB makes this Clint Eastwood’s fifth title as an actor, sixth title as a director to cross $100M. That’s quite conceivable. Annapurna’s six-time Golden Globe nominee Vice is looking at a second weekend of $5.2M, -32%, for a running tally by Sunday of $29.2M.

 

[aabattery]

42 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

So it's only fair that other movies replace it since it isn't Jenkins' best work

 

Are you saying this without having seen the film again?

[Steele131]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://deadline.com/2019/01/aquaman-escape-room-weekend-box-office-first-weekend-2019-1202529013/

 

 

It’ll go up

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Are you saying this without having seen the film again?

critical reception that's well below Moonlight and awards reception so far (lack of passion on SAG and PGA part, Globes only nominating the movie but not Jenkins) are more objective barometer than my seeing the movie. CRA has GG, SAG and PGA noms so I'd say it's a stronger contender atm. We'll see what DGA and BAFTA do for Beale (where CRA likely won't have presence). 

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

critical reception that's well below Moonlight and awards reception so far (lack of passion on SAG and PGA part, Globes only nominating the movie but not Jenkins) are more objective barometer than my seeing the movie. CRA has GG, SAG and PGA noms so I'd say it's a stronger contender atm. We'll see what DGA and BAFTA do for Beale (where CRA likely won't have presence). 

 

You gotta stop doing this.

[KP1025]

Quote

Disney’s Mary Poppins Returns which is eyeing a third session of $18.4M, -35% for a running total of $141.3M, which would be 84% of the running total of The Greatest Showman at the same point in time. 

Typo here. That should be 184% or 84% ahead of The Greatest Showman.

[MCKillswitch123]

19 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

critical reception that's well below Moonlight and awards reception so far (lack of passion on SAG and PGA part, Globes only nominating the movie but not Jenkins) are more objective barometer than my seeing the movie. CRA has GG, SAG and PGA noms so I'd say it's a stronger contender atm. We'll see what DGA and BAFTA do for Beale (where CRA likely won't have presence). 

The idea of "objective barometers" to say a movie is or isn't a director's best work is total bullshit. Sure, some aspects of film are more objective than others (the technical side of things, for instance), but at the end of the day, all film is subjective and provokes different reactions on everyone. If anything, reviews and award recognition are a parameter to evaluate a director's most critically acclaimed work, not his "best". "Best" is an adjective based on individual opinions, thus, it's a value judgment, not a fact. In turn, that means that no movie is "better" than the other just because they have better reviews and have more award nominations.

 

Sure, you can hop to Rotten Tomatoes, see a higher average rating from critics in one movie vs. another, and then check that the amount of awards noms that 1st one has far outweighs the ones of the 2nd, and ultimately presume that the 1st film is the more enjoyable experience, as it is the better recommended.... but then again, you may feel completely the opposite and far prefer the 2nd movie over the 1st. So, yeah, it's invalid to say Beale isn't Jenkins' best work based on fucking reviews and nominations, or to say BP deserves it more as a movie without you having even seen Beale.

Edited January 4, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[Krissykins]

X-Men The Last Stand is on TV lol, I never got why everyone hates this film so much. 

 

I thought it was one of the more entertaining X-Men films, less bogged down in telling the same humans v mutants story over and over again. 

[CoolioD1]

in the UK we fucking go nuts for movie soundtracks. the mamma mia 2 and star is born soundtracks both went to #1, the bohemian rhapsody soundtrack is still in the top 10 and the greatest showman soundtrack keeps going back to #1, it's currently #1 in its 55th week. so it's telling that the mary poppins returns soundtrack hasn't cracked the top 40 here yet. lame-ass songs.

[Eric Atreides]

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-tyler-perrys-madea-family-funeral/

 

Madea: 27M/68M

 

Dog's Way Home: 13 (+8%)/44 (+10%)

Upside: 12/36 (-8%)

 

Serenity: 7/21 (-30%)

Kid Who Would Be King: 10M (-33%)/40M (-20%)

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

why? this is the second guild that showed zero passion for Beale and lots of passion for CRA. Obviously reception of Beale is nowhere near Moonlight. So it's only fair that other movies replace it since it isn't Jenkins' best work. We'll see if DGA nominates him but I'm hoping that Coogler will get in instead. Much more deserving plus it would propel BP to legit contender to win. 

Well, Black Panther isn't Coogler's best work either. But still, Beale Street is better than almost all the film's nominated in the PGA. LMAO at that Bohemian Rhapsody nomination. I still can't believe that Green Book got nominated but Beale Street didn't either. I guess old white people love that film just because it makes them feel better about the way they treat black people. It's the same reason why Driving Miss Daisy got so much awards buzz while not many cared about Do the Right Thing (one of the best and most influential films ever). All these years and Hollywood still hasn't changed.

 

Coogler probably isn't getting director. He has had no buzz for getting nominated for Best Director. More likely Spike Lee and Jenkins get nominated.

Edited January 4, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[Manny G]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://deadline.com/2019/01/aquaman-escape-room-weekend-box-office-first-weekend-2019-1202529013/

 

 

Great for Escape Room. 

[reddevil19]

If Deadline's early Fri proves correct, then my pessimistic scenario in the Thursday thread is quite likely. But, very early. That 8 million could end up well over 9 by the end. Again, an interesting weekend for AQM. 

[Boxofficerules]

How can they know a Friday number? It’s not even Friday night yet.

[MCKillswitch123]

44 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Well, Black Panther isn't Coogler's best work either. But still, Beale Street is better than almost all the film's nominated in the PGA. LMAO at that Bohemian Rhapsody nomination. I still can't believe that Green Book got nominated but Beale Street didn't either. I guess old white people love that film just because it makes them feel better about the way they treat black people. It's the same reason why Driving Miss Daisy got so much awards buzz while not many cared about Do the Right Thing (one of the best and most influential films ever). All these years and Hollywood still hasn't changed.

  

Coogler probably isn't getting director. He has had no buzz for getting nominated for Best Director. More likely Spike Lee and Jenkins get nominated.

Without having seen Bohemian Rhapsody, it seems exactly like the kind of film that would be nominated. I mean, yeah, it was seemingly a crowdpleaser and didn't go balls deep on Mercury's life, but to my knowledge, the movie's intention - according to the plot at least - was to be a celebration of Queen and Mercury, rather than a dark inspection of the latter's personal life. And regardless of approach, the subject matter is the kind that is attractive enough for Hollywood old people to at least consider it, should it have quality that is. Plus, the movie is an insanely huge box office success, so its awards buzz was basically a given at that point.

Edited January 4, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, Boxofficerules said:

How can they know a Friday number? It’s not even Friday night yet.

Projections. Of course, if a movie is walk-up friendly and plays strong in the evening, that will mean a higher number. Conversely, if it dies in the evening, it would go down. I'd be far more inclined to think AQM's numbers will go up than down or stay that way... 

[AdamKendall]

6 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

If Deadline's early Fri proves correct, then my pessimistic scenario in the Thursday thread is quite likely. But, very early. That 8 million could end up well over 9 by the end. Again, an interesting weekend for AQM. 

It would be more interesting if there was questions about whether it would reach 300 or 1 billion, but whether it does 25-26 or 28-30, it's hitting both those # with ease at this point.

[Steele131]

6 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

If Deadline's early Fri proves correct, then my pessimistic scenario in the Thursday thread is quite likely. But, very early. That 8 million could end up well over 9 by the end. Again, an interesting weekend for AQM. 

Yah I was thinking a 30% increase seems low. Hopefully when the actuals come out it’s closer to 9ish million 

[reddevil19]

4 minutes ago, AdamKendall said:

It would be more interesting if there was questions about whether it would reach 300 or 1 billion, but whether it does 25-26 or 28-30, it's hitting both those # with ease at this point.

24-25 this weekend and consequent big drops, with Glass finishing off its late legs COULD mean it finishes just under 300, though... Unlikely, but not impossible, should it start falling off the face of the earth. Low Fri and Sat increases and big Sun drop could be just the start of a precipitous drop-off for it. Again, unlikely, but there's still a possibility. Which is why it's interesting to me - especially as I want it to make the domestic top 5 for 2018, not just hit 300. You are clearly far more certain than I of its prospects, so more power to you.