Weekend Thread: Actuals - AQM $31M | Escape Room $18.24M | MPR $15.86M | Bumblebee $13.20M | Spider-Verse $13.13M

[MrGlass2]

Variety:

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/aquaman-box-office-three-peat-1203099644/

 

Quote

The third frame of “Aquaman” is again leaving rivals under water at the North American box office, with about $25 million for the first weekend of the year, early estimates showed on Friday.

“Mary Poppins Returns” has been forecast to finish with about $20 million, while Sony’s launch of the thriller “Escape Room” is coming in above expectations at about $15 million at 2,717 sites, although the studio is adhering to a $10 million to $12 million range. Sony’s fourth frame of “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” is heading for fourth with about $13 million, followed by Paramount’s third weekend of “Transformers” prequel “Bumblebee” with $11 million.

 

 

[narniadis]

All of those #s from deadline would be weak increases even given the holiday. Hopefully things go up some more. 

[IronJimbo]

when do we get to start measuring box office in yuan rather than dollars?

[Plain Old Tele]

28 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

when do we get to start measuring box office in yuan rather than dollars?

 

When Chinese companies pay for them in yuan and produce them in China. 

[DAJK]

39 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

when do we get to start measuring box office in yuan rather than dollars?

Someone starting to worry that Alita might not make "a billie" worldwide unless it's counted in yuan?  

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, AdamKendall said:

It would be more interesting if there was questions about whether it would reach 300 or 1 billion, but whether it does 25-26 or 28-30, it's hitting both those # with ease at this point.

If it does 25M (which I doubt) then 300 is absolutely back to being a real question.

46 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

when do we get to start measuring box office in yuan rather than dollars?

Be the change you want to see in the world.

[Legion Again]

I think we’ll get something like 28, 18, but if the actual result is 26, 21 or something then next weekend could be competitive between MPR and AQM.

[Claire of Themyscira]

6 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

in the UK we fucking go nuts for movie soundtracks. the mamma mia 2 and star is born soundtracks both went to #1, the bohemian rhapsody soundtrack is still in the top 10 and the greatest showman soundtrack keeps going back to #1, it's currently #1 in its 55th week. so it's telling that the mary poppins returns soundtrack hasn't cracked the top 40 here yet. lame-ass songs.

Yeah, the fact Little Mix didn't hit #1 with their latest album while basic trash like TGS keeps selling, it's racism and sexism, honestly.

 

Rita shoulda gone number one.

[katniss]

2 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

If it does 25M (which I doubt) then 300 is absolutely back to being a real question.

Be the change you want to see in the world.

lol this is locked for 300 no matter what barring some black swan event. 

 

25 million gives it 255 million.  It's gonna EASILY make 35 million just on weekends alone throughout the rest of its run with weekdays at 20-25 million.  Blockbuster movies have really long tails after the big 2nd or 3rd weekend drop.  

 

255 million after a 25 million weekend through Sunday.  

 

13 million

8 million

5 million

3 million

2 million

1.5 million

2 million for the last few weekends of its run

 

These conservative weekend totals give it 290 million.  All you need is 10 million from 2 months+ worth of remaining weekdays. 

 

But given a much more likely 20 million minimum from weekdays, 310 million is also locked.

 

The real fight happens between 310 - 330 million.    350+ is not out of the question either if the holds are better than expected. 

 

 

 

[Impact]

Well I finally saw Aquaman today. I was sick on Christmas week and was snowed out the next!
It was pretty fun and good. While I didn't like it as much as Ant Man 2 I actually kind of liked it more then Black Panther.

I liked how it was basically a fish out of water story-but the twist is that the one who was the fish out of a water was the normal person like us getting use to other stuff.

 

(Actually I have to think of how I would rank the superhero films of last year, of course since I saw Aquaman the most recent its the most fresh in my mind and my opinion could change)

[Manny G]

3 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

If it does 25M (which I doubt) then 300 is absolutely back to being a real question.

Be the change you want to see in the world.

Lol so you think that if it ends up t $255M by the end of the weekend the movie will only make less than $45M for the remainder of it run????

[kswiston]

12 minutes ago, Manny G said:

Lol so you think that if it ends up t $255M by the end of the weekend the movie will only make less than $45M for the remainder of it run????

 

The way that I look at it, The Last Jedi made $47M more after a $23.7M weekend a year ago in this slot. As long as Aquaman stays ahead in the dailies through MLK Day, it would be pretty hard to miss 300M. Even if drops are suddenly worse than TLJ after that point. 

Edited January 5, 2019 by kswiston

[Maxmoser3]

$15 million for Escape Room is good.

 

holdovers eh. Aquaman will be a potential 4-week flick. Considering next weekend looks like mid-range releases to more moderate releases. 

 

Glass is going to do big for last two weekends of January  

 

February looks to  be average. Lego 2, and What Men Want should both do very well!

 

Isn’t It Romantic should do How To Be Single or I Feel Pretty numbers. Happy Death Day 2U should do on-par

with its predecessor. Fighting Witb My Family will be more moderate. Atlita will bomb.

 

How To Train Your Dragon 3 will dip from the second one but Kung Fu Panda 3 seems a doable target.

 

For March, Madea first weekend seems meh. So the 8th, Captain Marvel should do Guardians 1 numbers. If it did Wonder Woman numbers that’s awesome.

 

Us should perform similar to Get Out. Dumbo could be either like A Wrinkle In Time at worst to even At best Cinderella ‘15/Jungle Book ‘16. 

 

The rest of the year let’s see how the first quarter is. Last year we had a few surprises with Black Panther, I Can Only Imagine, Den Of Thieves(it’s a surprise to me), Insidious 4, and Peter Rabbit. Also would Game Night be considered a surprise too? I don’t think so I’m my opinion. 

[Manny G]

24 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

$15 million for Escape Room is good.

 

holdovers eh. Aquaman will be a potential 4-week flick. Considering next weekend looks like mid-range releases to more moderate releases. 

 

Glass is going to do big for last two weekends of January  

 

February looks to  be average. Lego 2, and What Men Want should both do very well!

 

Isn’t It Romantic should do How To Be Single or I Feel Pretty numbers. Happy Death Day 2U should do on-par

with its predecessor. Fighting Witb My Family will be more moderate. Atlita will bomb.

 

How To Train Your Dragon 3 will dip from the second one but Kung Fu Panda 3 seems a doable target.

 

For March, Madea first weekend seems meh. So the 8th, Captain Marvel should do Guardians 1 numbers. If it did Wonder Woman numbers that’s awesome.

 

Us should perform similar to Get Out. Dumbo could be either like A Wrinkle In Time at worst to even At best Cinderella ‘15/Jungle Book ‘16. 

 

The rest of the year let’s see how the first quarter is. Last year we had a few surprises with Black Panther, I Can Only Imagine, Den Of Thieves(it’s a surprise to me), Insidious 4, and Peter Rabbit. Also would Game Night be considered a surprise too? I don’t think so I’m my opinion. 

I think The Upside could definitely go #1 with a $15M+  debut. I will be shock if opens to less.

[dxmatrixdt]

we don't know what is going to happen next week, or tomorrow.  Best to take the box office currently as is because the box office involves money and can be changed at any instant in the nature of business

[AlephNull]

45 minutes ago, nature club said:

we don't know what is going to happen next week, or tomorrow.  Best to take the box office currently as is because the box office involves money and can be changed at any instant in the nature of business

You must be fun at parties

[dxmatrixdt]

.

Edited February 19, 2019 by Slave Animal Rights

[The Panda]

At this point pre-reviews are just studios opening the movie a day earlier and adding the number to the OW and OD total to try and inflate the numbers.

 

There’s very little logic to count those preview numbers in the OW or OD amount

[grim22]

BOX OFFICE FOR JAN. 4-6

THUMB RANK FILM DIS. SCREENS (CHG) FRIDAY WEEKEND B.O. TOTAL WK 1 Aquaman WB 4,184 (+59) $9.1M (-46%) $30.3M (-42%) $259.3M 3 2 Escape Room Sony 2,717 $7.7M $17.3M $17.3M 1 3 Mary Poppins Returns Dis 4,090 $5.1M (-51%) $16.9M (-40%) $139.8M 3 4 …Spider-Verse Sony 3,419 (-394) $3.8M (-44%) $12.7M (-32%) $133.6M 4 5 Bumblebee Par 3,597 (+47) $3.8M (-41%) $12.6M (-40%) $96.9M 3 6 The Mule WB/Bron 3,212 (+425) $2.8M (-30%) $8.8M (-28%) $80.8M 4 7 Vice ANNP 2,534 (+92) $1.7M (-36%) $5.5M (-29%) $29.5M 2 8 Second Act STX 2,523 (-84) $1.5M (-37%) $5M (-31%) $33M 3 9 Ralph Breaks Dis 2,050 (-293) $1.5M (-38%)  $4.8M (-28%) $187.3M 7 10 Holmes & Watson Sony 2,780 (+4) $1M (-60%)  $3.3M (-55%) $28.3M 2

[grim22]

This line from the Deadline article is hilarious

 

Quote

Warner Bros.’ third weekend of Aquaman is the only title grossing north of $20M with an estimated $30.3M, -42% for a running total by Sunday of $259.3M. Next weekend’s trio of wide entries –STX’s The Upside ($8M-$10M estimated opening), Sony’s A Dog’s Way Home ($7M-$12M) Entertainment Studios’ Replicas ($4M-$7M estimated opening)– aren’t expected to inflict any damage, so it’s safe to say that Aquaman will reign for a fourth weekend. The last time Warners held a film for four weeks straight was 2008’s The Dark Knight. Breaking $900M is within Aquaman‘s grasp this weekend and if he doesn’t lose too many screens abroad, $1 billion isn’t out of the question.

 

A movie which went into this weekend with 867M and will earn 30M+ according to your estimates might just break 900M WW