Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 | July 12 2023 | 99% on Rotten Tomatoes! | 290M budget so far, Cruise holding Paramount hostage for more money

[TheDude391]

8 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Hearing the Mission Impossible theme with Digimon is weird.

I kept wondering how Tom could ever top himself with MI 8...but I never considered the possibility of crossovers...

[Eric Atreides]

8 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Hearing the Mission Impossible theme with Digimon is weird.

How dare you call...that the "Mission: Impossible theme"

[reddevil19]

On 7/30/2022 at 4:50 PM, Cruel Summer said:

As long as it outgrosses No time to bore it'll be a big success

Looking at the last two movies in the series, and just how onboard people are with Cruise's insane stunts, there's no way that doesn't happen, IMO. I'm actually looking for it to get to Skyfall numbers as my optimistic forecast... I think 700-800 OS is doable. Question is if the US sees a significant jump this late in the series (350+) 

Edited August 11, 2022 by reddevil19

[Maggie]

6 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Looking at the last two movies in the series, and just how onboard people are with Cruise's insane stunts, there's no way that doesn't happen, IMO. I'm actually looking for it to get to Skyfall numbers as my optimistic forecast... I think 700-800 OS is doable. Question is if the US sees a significant jump this late in the series (350+) 

IF it gets a China release....which i kind of doubt it now

[reddevil19]

12 minutes ago, Maggie said:

IF it gets a China release....which i kind of doubt it now

Why? TG is hitting 700 without China. 

I think it will do gangbusters in Europe. 

[Maggie]

36 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Why? TG is hitting 700 without China. 

I think it will do gangbusters in Europe. 

Yes, but Mission is not Top Gun. I feel TG2 was a unique case. We shall see. He got a lot of goodwill after TG2, but next year is so far away

Edited August 11, 2022 by Maggie

[Eric Atreides]

I'm never good with overseas/WW box office, but a big DOM jump just doesn't seem possible IMO. Top Gun had a much lower barrier of entry, while M:I is a franchise that has been long enough and consistent enough that people know what they're getting into and that they like it or not. It's also super early of course, but I don't see any hook in the trailer that makes somebody who has no experience with the franchise go "I have to see that!" When Fallout's reviews came out, there were so many "100M OW! 300M locked!", then it just did slightly better than the last two movies. This should happen here though, and 250M isn't bad at all.

[reddevil19]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

Yes, but Mission is not Top Gun. I feel TG2 was a unique case. We shall see. He got a lot of goodwill after TG2, but next year is so far away

Fallout did 570 OS. I don't think TGM is special because it's a legacy sequel. Its American exceptionalism and legacy may be part of the reason for its dom numbers, but the first TG is hardly this mega-hit that everyone worldwide knows and loves. Obviously it also had little competition compared to a lot of normal summers (really, only Thor, which was very late in its run, and JWD, coming off a previous movie that hardly hit it out of the park with audiences). But it clicked because after two years with so little event moviegoing, here comes this proper adrenaline-pumping, edge-of-your-seat action flick, with real stunts, and people loved it. 

 

Now... Again, because of the American exceptionalism angle and the demos TGM drew domestically, I would never think MI can get that high on that front. Possibly not even 50%. But a healthy OS increase with Tom Cruise selling the shit out of his new insane action movie? Yes, I can believe that. Especially from a franchise that recovered from a major slump half-way through. 

 

Exchange rates and the overall economy worldwide will be a bigger concern than the lack of China. If we get through winter relatively OK, without major crises due to lack of fuel, insane inflation, recessions etc and spring slowly picks up, heading into a good summer, this could very well be positioned to become the focal point for OS box office next summer. There's a lot of factors to consider and a lot could go wrong, but lack of China by itself is probably the least worrying for its prospects. 

 

I'm trying to be optimistic for the overall outlook next summer, which in terms of box office would mean 700 OS and 300 DOM as feasible (though not the likeliest) targets for this one. 250+650 is my actual expectation, but I can easily see 200 million on either side if things go significantly tits up/the stars align positively. 

[CaptNathanBrittles]

Quote

but the first TG is hardly this mega-hit that everyone worldwide knows and loves

 

It was the #1 movie of 1986 worldwide, almost doubling the beloved ALIENS gross. Its overseas gross was 50% when that wasn't the norm. According to the-numbers it's the 6th leggiest movie of the modern era. God knows how much it made on home video and television.

 

And it was possibly among the top ten highest grossers worldwide at the time. From what I can find out the only films above it were:

 

E.T. ($723m)

STAR WARS ($513m)

JAWS ($470m)

THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK ($405m)

RAIDERS OF THE LOST ARK ($384m)

RETURN OF THE JEDI ($381m)

BACK TO THE FUTURE ($370m)

TOP GUN ($354m)

 

Edited August 23, 2022 by CaptNathanBrittles

[reddevil19]

40 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

 

 

It was the #1 movie of 1986 worldwide, almost doubling the beloved ALIENS gross. Its overseas gross was 50% when that wasn't the norm. According to the-numbers it's the 6th leggiest movie of the modern era. God knows how much it made on home video and television.

 

And it was possibly among the top ten highest grossers worldwide at the time. From what I can find out the only films above it were:

 

E.T. ($723m)

STAR WARS ($513m)

THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK ($479m)

JAWS ($470m)

RETURN OF THE JEDI ($391m)

RAIDERS OF THE LOST ARK ($384m)

BACK TO THE FUTURE ($370m)

TOP GUN ($354m)

 

I'm not disputing its box office, I'm disputing the notion that it's the kind of cultural landmark that inspires the sequel to huge success because of said cultural impact. I'm disputing its legacy as a beloved and fondly-remembered classic that made everyone hardly xo tain themselves with excitement in wait for a sequel and, as such, can not be imitated by the likes of Mission Impossible.

 

If that were the case, the film would have opened huge due to demand - it opened well in itself of course, but it wasn't ground-breaking, relative to what came after. Its staying power was remarkable, which means the movie itself was the driving factor, as opposed to the legacy of the franchise (which is just one movie, 35 years ago - the others are franchises with multiple films for the most part, including with recent entries, thereby remaining more relevant. The outlier is E.T., a sequel to which could really go either way and Jaws was ran into the ground). 

 

A not insignificant portion of the box office receipts for TGM came from countries where the original had zero footprint, including Central and Eastern Europe - in these markets there is zero attachment to the characters or the story or even the music and homoerotic beach sports montages qnd yet it played like a superhero movie there (or better in some cases). 

 

That's my whole point - anyone that thinks the nostalgia or familiarity with the franchise played an outsized factor in TGM's international success is dead wrong. It helped a bit in places like Western Europe and Australia or South Korea, sure, but it was still very much down to the way the film connected and word of mouth built. Hence, another franchise that already has appeal in those same sorts of markets, could, in theory, deliver similar numbers overseas, riding on a wave of TC goodwill and desire to see some amazing, edge-of-your-seat action, should the movie actually deliver the same level of quality and thrills. 

 

Lack of China CAN be overcome, if other economic and political factors are in its favour come next summer. It's a big IF, sure, but my point is that it's not the original TG fanatics coming out of the woodwork after a third of a century that propelled this to success. And despite its zeitgeist-capturing release, there seems to be an over-stating of just how identifiable the 1986 Top Gun is as the origin point for the most durable pop culture moments that survived it (such as Danger Zone as a song). When people that can't identify the original, have no fond memories or any memories at all of the original, or weren't even alive and had never been passed on the fanaticism a la Star Wars fanboys feeding their kids a diet of Luke, Han and Leia, watch and love TGM, then that's not the 35 year old love affair of a movie with its public that is driving success. It's the new movie doing it by itself, with a star that can now once again play an aging bad ass in search of death in ever more convoluted stunts and translate a strengthened interest from the public into a repeat success story with an already successful franchise. 

 

The argument that this can't do as well as TGM overseas can't be that the first Top Gun was the kind of international success Mission Impossible never was, because the first Mission Impossible delivered comparable results and is on a similar level in terms of cultural impact. But the series stumbled with a less-than-ideal second movie which, coupled with the TC backlash around the release of the third, led to a significant drop and cooling on the franchise. Despite renewed success, the argument can be made for stagnation outside the Chinese market. THAT I can accept as a reason for being reluctant on Dead Reckoning's chances of a significant increase, even if personally I'm betting on it graduating to the next tier of success in Europe. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

10 hours ago, Eric the Extra-Terrestrial said:

I'm never good with overseas/WW box office, but a big DOM jump just doesn't seem possible IMO. Top Gun had a much lower barrier of entry, while M:I is a franchise that has been long enough and consistent enough that people know what they're getting into and that they like it or not. It's also super early of course, but I don't see any hook in the trailer that makes somebody who has no experience with the franchise go "I have to see that!" When Fallout's reviews came out, there were so many "100M OW! 300M locked!", then it just did slightly better than the last two movies. This should happen here though, and 250M isn't bad at all.

no one predicted 100m ow even after reviews for fallout unless they are new to boxoffice  , mainly cause its Tom Cruise who is more about legs, industry tracking for the last few MI films have been hopefully 50m+ solely on great reviews 

[Eric Atreides]

 

Happy birthday @Ethan Hunt

[Eric Atreides]

 

[Eric Atreides]

 

[Joel M]

 

He's insane, I love it.

[Eric Atreides]

 

[Maggie]

I wonder if this gets a China release??

 

 

[Gavin Feng]

13 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I wonder if this gets a China release??

 

 

 

Doesn't matter. Joker was showed over 5 times in Zhongnanhai. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

I wonder if this gets a China release??

 

 

 

The first one?

[Firepower]

4 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Doesn't matter. Joker was showed over 5 times in Zhongnanhai. 

Did they like it? I kinda wonder.