MLK Weekend Thread: Glass - 40m 3 day, 47m 4 day| Aquaman passes 300m| Dragonball - 21m 5 day

[TimmyRiggins]

It will be profitable within a week, yeah, I call that a massive win. It's opening on par or quite higher than Split in most OS territories, we'll see the legs but I'm confident that they'll be decent. It's just an endless refrain here every time. I remember folks blasting the Aquaman and Mary Poppins Returns numbers and it's not just those. 

 

The 70 M-80 M predictions seemed delusional to me, Universal expected 50 M 4 day which seems to be where (or extremely close) it'll land, did they change those when the reviews hit? Who knows. But we've seen so many examples of reviews not doing a damn thing, so I really doubt that, most of the time, it can be used as a factor for "lower than expected" results.

 

Shyamalan hasn't planned sequels, he says this is it, so yeah, either way, it's going to be a strong result

[Zakiyyah6]

I never even implied that Glass would lose money. I'm just saying that the Friday numbers in North America are okay but underwhelming. I'll see what the legs are like and the overseas numbers to give my final assessment on the matter. Of course people are well within their rights to disagree and believe that Glass is having the greatest opening ever. 

[Godzilla]

15 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Friday, January 18, 2019
 

<<Prev Day <Wk <Mo <Yr	Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019	>Yr >Mo >Wk >>Next Day
TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 - Glass Uni. $16,000,000 - - 3,841 $4,166 $16,000,000 1 2 2 The Upside STX $4,170,000 +149% -40% 3,320 $1,256 $32,483,439 8 3 3 Aquaman WB $2,510,000 +130% -45% 3,475 $722 $296,516,848 29 4 1 Dragon Ball Super: Broly FUN $2,397,442 -29% - 467 $5,134 $12,817,471 3 5 4 Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse Sony $1,760,000 +165% -20% 2,712 $649 $152,761,385 36 6 5 A Dog's Way Home Sony $1,705,000 +206% -48% 3,090 $552 $15,873,496 8 7 6 Escape Room Sony $1,530,000 +175% -43% 2,709 $565 $36,955,948 15 8 9 Mary Poppins Returns BV $1,229,000 +152% -31% 2,810 $437 $154,716,814 31 9 10 Bumblebee Par. $1,110,000 +146% -37% 2,711 $409 $112,393,676 29 10 8 On the Basis of Sex Focus $1,080,000 +98% -50% 1,957 $552 $13,991,747 25 11 7 The Mule WB $925,000 +69% -47% 2,688 $344 $94,349,689 36 12 12 Bohemian Rhapsody Fox $615,000 +134% -34% 1,177 $523 $200,347,484 78

I don’t understand I thought Broly was in 1250 theaters. It says 467 on here... It has the highest PTA of all the films... This release is so weird why not do it how most movies do? 

[narniadis]

Brolys release is not typical. It will have more theaters some days than others. In particular Wednesday/ thursday it had premium and imax screens that it lost to Glass. 

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, sfran43 said:

Finally!!!

 

 

[Zakiyyah6]

4 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

It will be profitable within a week, yeah, I call that a massive win. It's opening on par or quite higher than Split in most OS territories, we'll see the legs but I'm confident that they'll be decent. It's just an endless refrain here every time. I remember folks blasting the Aquaman and Mary Poppins Returns numbers and it's not just those. 

 

The 70 M-80 M predictions seemed delusional to me, Universal expected 50 M 4 day which seems to be where (or extremely close) it'll land, did they change those when the reviews hit? Who knows. But we've seen so many examples of reviews not doing a damn thing, so I really doubt that, most of the time, it can be used as a factor for "lower than expected" results.

 

Shyamalan hasn't planned sequels, he says this is it, so yeah, either way, it's going to be a strong result

Mary Poppins did under perform all expectations. It's doing well for it's genre in North America but the overseas numbers aren't looking so hot outside of the UK. Aquaman has flew past all expectations. Supposedly DC on film died with Justice League, according to everyone but a few of us. 

[Godzilla]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

Brolys release is not typical. It will have more theaters some days than others. In particular Wednesday/ thursday it had premium and imax screens that it lost to Glass. 

So will it have more theaters tomorrow? And then less on Sunday? What’s the point of this release strategy? Is Funimation too cheap to do it normally? 

[TimmyRiggins]

5 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Mary Poppins did under perform all expectations. It's doing well for it's genre in North America but the overseas numbers aren't looking so hot outside of the UK. Aquaman has flew past all expectations. Supposedly DC on film died with Justice League, according to everyone but a few of us. 

 

The problem is that a lot of folks' expectations are sometimes overinflated and then people are disappointed. Most folks posting here were shitting bricks when MPR first opened and dramatically overreacting before Christmas time kicked in and the legs showed up. Aquaman had another thing going where several people here said the OW was underwhelming. What I'm saying is there's over a lot of overreactions here, all the time. 

[charlie Jatinder]

23 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Can we call something with bad reviews and to be determined legs a massive win? This is more of a "could have been way better, could have been way worse" than a massive win. They will make a profit, but this scenario was definitely not one which the studio and the makers probably went in anticipating.

Just say Domestic it do $100mn and another $125mn overseas, gives $105mn Share/return against $20mn budget. 5x ROI is massive.

 

Assuming ancilary incomes will take care of release and participation cost.

[sfran43]

 

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

I don’t understand I thought Broly was in 1250 theaters. It says 467 on here... It has the highest PTA of all the films... This release is so weird why not do it how most movies do? 

Because its not "most" movies. Such releases are common for diaspora releases, though I feel there may be local audience as well for this one. Returns are higher than usual for such releases going as high as 60-65%.

 

I checked Funimation's other releases, they did under $9mn. This is like Baahubali: The Conclusion was to Indian films I suppose in USA.

[scabab]

Can someone make sense of this for me. This is from BOM.

 

FUNimation's Dragon Ball Super: Broly continues its strong performance, bringing in an estimated $2.4 million on Friday from just 467 locations, pushing the anime film to a $12.8 million domestic cume after three days in release. The film is expected to deliver over $8 million for the three-day, pushing to $9.5 million for the five-day weekend and a $15 million start.

 

 

What five day weekend? Did they four day weekend? If it was at $10.4 million on Thursday and they say $8 million for three days, I'd guess Friday to Sunday....and $9.5 million by Monday?

 

How is that a $15 million start? $10.4 million by Thursday....and $9.5 million from Friday to Monday....that's $19.9 million? 

 

I have no idea what they mean here.

[Zakiyyah6]

14 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

 

The problem is that a lot of folks' expectations are sometimes overinflated and then people are disappointed. Most folks posting here were shitting bricks when MPR first opened and dramatically overreacting before Christmas time kicked in and the legs showed up. Aquaman had another thing going where several people here said the OW was underwhelming. What I'm saying is there's over a lot of overreactions here, all the time. 

Again, people have been shit talking Aquaman for a year. So it's not shocking that such a thing continued until the word of mouth kicked in. Poppins did disappoint, there is no way to spin the numbers and pretend that it didn't. No way did Disney stick Poppins in such a plumb Holiday spot expecting such low numbers. Expecting Into the Spiderverse, of all things, to outgross it. I agree that people do overreact on here and it annoys me but I am not overreacting about Glass. For some reason you seem to be reading flop into my posts and I never said that. It will make money so clearly it is not a flop. I am allowed to think that the Friday number is underwhelming though. 

Edited January 19, 2019 by Zakiyyah6

[grim22]

Good pun

 

 

[scabab]

2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

How about $22mn 6 days estimates.

But Deadline went and lowered there 6 day estimates to $17.8 million. Even though Friday did more than they thought they lowered the rest.

 

How could it possibly make $22 million at this point?

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, scabab said:

But Deadline went and lowered there 6 day estimates to $17.8 million. Even though Friday did more than they thought they lowered the rest.

 

How could it possibly make $22 million at this point?

These sort of films have bigger than normal jumps and drops. I expect it to go like 7 3.5 2.4 4 2.5 2.5-3 and then will drop like stone.

 

May be some hold on Tuesday tho.

Edited January 19, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[SchumacherFTW]

36 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

So will it have more theaters tomorrow? And then less on Sunday? What’s the point of this release strategy? Is Funimation too cheap to do it normally? 

Anime releases aren't big enough generally to warrant a full release. Funimation maximise their revenue by pushing single day releases when it comes to theatrical revenue usually. Out of all their releases, Your Name is the only one they tried a standard release on which back fired to a degree. 

[boxofficeth]

Any outside chance that S:ITSV will score 200M with such strong hold?

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, boxofficeth said:

Any outside chance that S:ITSV will score 200M with such strong hold?

Idk, may be oscar expansion 🙄.

Else $180mn best case scenario.

[Barnack]

13 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Does this $20mn include remurenations to Samuel L Jackson, Bruce, McAvoy and rest. I don't think so. Or may be some profit sharing.

 

Would not suprise me working on scale in exchange of something is getting common, but they are either literally co-owner of the movie or with big profit sharing close going to them (say 40-50%)