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John Marston

MLK Weekend Thread: Glass - 40m 3 day, 47m 4 day| Aquaman passes 300m| Dragonball - 21m 5 day

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good previews?

hopefully it can do close to 50M 3-day.

 

legs won't be anywhere as good as Split after that lame ending but the movie was fun.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, nevermore said:

UPDATED, FRIDAY AM: Universal is calling the Thursday night for M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass at $3.7M at 3,200 theaters, which would make it the director’s top preview night ever beating The Last Airbender‘s $3M and coming in way ahead of Split‘s $2M previews.

@BobDole wins the first gold account

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Same IM as Split gets it to $74m, but this'll be more front loaded for sure. Maybe $50m/58m for FSS/4-day?

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19 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

I was thinking previews would be closer to 5m. Broly Deadline numbers yesterday also increased from 5m to 7m. But with 3.7m previews 20m full Friday is difficult hun?

 

If OD is 5x previews (Split OD was >7x previews)

18.5 (14.8 true Friday)

18.5 (+25% from true Friday)

12 (-35%)

6.5 (-45%)

= 49 3-day / 55.5 4-day

 

Considering Split did 40 3-day / 43 4-day (non Holiday Mon) hope Glass does at least 50 4-day.

Edited by a2k

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2 minutes ago, a2k said:

 

 

I was thinking previews would be closer to 5m. Broly Deadline numbers yesterday also increased from 5m to 7m. But with 3.7m previews 20m full Friday is difficult hun?

 

If OD is 4-5x previews

15-18.5 (11.3-14.8 true Friday)

14-18.5 (+25% from true Friday)

9-12 (-35%)

5-6.5 (-45%)

= 43-55.5 4-day

 

 Considering Split did 40 3-day / 43 4-day (non Holiday Mon) hope Glass does at least 50 4-day.

is 50M 3-day dead already?

 

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Figure it cracks 50 for the 4-day but doesn't go much higher.

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1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

is 50M 3-day dead already?

 

Not dead but should be the high-end scenario imo. I updated my post to remove the low-end (it was too conservative). The numbers I used give 49 FSS.

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1 minute ago, RichWS said:

Figure it cracks 50 for the 4-day but doesn't go much higher.

Same. Now we’ll just have to wait and see what kind of legs it has. Could miss $100M at this point.

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2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Same. Now we’ll just have to wait and see what kind of legs it has. Could miss $100M at this point.

Split did 3.45x the FSS. Nun did 2.15x I think. Surely this should be somewhere in between those extremes?

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I don't believe it's missing 100mil. The preview numbers are fine but it is a sequel and thus will be much more front loaded. How much more remains to be seen. I don't see how it misses 40mil 3 day with that number.

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Some anecdotal WOM: Woke up this morning with a waiting text from my Cali buddy: "Glass is garbage haha"

 

I'm seeing it tonight because I don't care about my well-being and I have time to kill before a birthday party.

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AQM 1.09 Thu; 294.01 cume

 

Was hoping for a better hold but >13 4-day is still feasible,

 

2.62 (+140%)

4.85 (+85%)

3.39 (-30%) // 10.9 FSS (-37%)

2.20 (-35%) // 13.1 FSSM (-25%); 307.1 cume

Edited by a2k
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If Glass follows Escape Room:

3.7M

12M (inc. previews) Fri

10.4M Sat

6.4M Sun

28.8M

 

If it follows Insidious 4:

3.7M

23.8M (inc. previews) Fri

20.6M Sat

10.9M Sun

55.3M

 

If it follows Split:

3.7M

27M (inc. previews) Fri

30.5M Sat

16.4M Sun

73.9M

 

If it follows American Sniper:

3.7M

21.2M (inc. previews) Fri

24.1M Sat

17M Sun

12.5M Mon

62.3M 3-Day 74.8M 4-Day

 

Insidious seems like the best reference to go off of, since both are Blumhouse sequels, though there will obviously be a harsher Saturday drop and a softer Sunday drop for Glass. The thing to remember is the winter storm will put a big dent in this weekend's grosses, which none of these movies dealt with IIRC, so sub-50M for the three-day is still a strong possibility

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12 minutes ago, a2k said:

AQM 1.09 Thu; 294.01 cume

 

Was hoping for a better hold but >13 4-day is still feasible,

 

2.62 (+140%)

4.85 (+85%)

3.39 (-30%) // 10.9 FSS (-37%)

2.20 (-35%) // 13.1 FSSM (-25%); 307.1 cume

Why would it fall 30% on Sunday :thinking:

 

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21 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

If Glass follows Escape Room:

3.7M

12M (inc. previews) Fri

10.4M Sat

6.4M Sun

28.8M

 

If it follows Insidious 4:

3.7M

23.8M (inc. previews) Fri

20.6M Sat

10.9M Sun

55.3M

 

If it follows Split:

3.7M

27M (inc. previews) Fri

30.5M Sat

16.4M Sun

73.9M

 

If it follows American Sniper:

3.7M

21.2M (inc. previews) Fri

24.1M Sat

17M Sun

12.5M Mon

62.3M 3-Day 74.8M 4-Day

 

Insidious seems like the best reference to go off of, since both are Blumhouse sequels, though there will obviously be a harsher Saturday drop and a softer Sunday drop for Glass. The thing to remember is the winter storm will put a big dent in this weekend's grosses, which none of these movies dealt with IIRC, so sub-50M for the three-day is still a strong possibility

There is also the AFC/NFC championship games on Sunday, so that will likely have some effect too.

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Couple people laughed at me in Han's prediction topic for saying that I think Glass would finish under Split unless it got great reviews, feeling pretty damn good about it now, but obviously still early. I never really felt the buzz on this one to match the insane 65m+ OW predictions - Split was much more organic. 

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3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Audience score is at 79% 🤔

What a twist. :Venom:

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