PAPA NOL∀N'S TENƎꓕ | August 26 internationally. September 2 "in select US cities" | 75% on RT after 228 reviews

[JGAR4LIFE]

8 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

JDW is going to be a big star. I guess Marvel or DCEU will grab him for something next. 

John Stewart Green Lantern please

[excel1]

Harvey Dent obv 

[antovolk]

51 minutes ago, JGAR4LIFE said:

VERY bad idea to put it right in between Black Widow and James Bond of all things 

 

Also by June you mean 2021?

If November happens, the GvK date, Bond is surely gonna move to Nov 11 in line with OS release. And Widow possibly goes a week early like OS release...or both just get pushed to 21?

 

And yes, June 2021.

50 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Of course it will move. We are rapidly approaching June and theaters are still closed in the majority of the world

Most of the world's theaters should be opening up - as in governments will let them - by July. The question is will the US (LA, NY and other major metropolises) and the UK (currently set for July 4).

 

And of course the factor is if WB/Nolan grow a conscience and realise when Trump/Johnson says things can open, they kinda should not...

Edited May 26, 2020 by antovolk

[Borobudur]

WB/Nolan try to make this as the first major blockbuster after reopening.

 

But it is too risky....the virus won't be gone overnight, it takes month or even years for people to "forget" the fears, and that is subject to the availability of treatment or vaccine,

[doublejack]

On 5/24/2020 at 9:47 AM, Valonqar said:

and @doublejack Thank you! 

You're welcome!

 

The trailer is up to 5.2M views on the main youtube channel now. It continues to track strongly.

 

On 5/25/2020 at 12:49 AM, Barnack said:

Prediction on what a movie will do for me sound almost impossible to do, we can try to use the latest movie drops just before theater close as a limited data set, but it seem really chaotic with how low it could be, how leggy it could be or not at all, I have very little hunch.

I agree completely. In ordinary times, Tenet would be poised to have a nice opening and run. I think it would have a very good chance of becoming Nolan's top OW grosser for an original IP. I'm not sure if it could match Inception's overall run, but maybe it would be possible. I see the floor being comparable to Interstellar.

 

Given the current situation, though, all bets are off. We don't know how many theaters will be open, at what capacity they will operate, how many screens Tenet will get at open theaters (we can assume it will be a huge chunk but it won't be the only movie playing), and what percentage of the public would be willing to go out. It is a giant gamble. Surely WB execs have to know this. Will they risk a big budget tentpole as a trial balloon? I wouldn't.

 

If I have to throw a number out there, I'm thinking something in the 10-20M for an OW is reasonable given 75% or more of theaters are open, capacity is limited to 25-33% and maybe 25% of people are willing to go. Given that presently there are less than 100 theaters operating, even a 20M OW may be a pipe dream.

 

Just for fun, I did a quick projection based on The Wretched, which is playing in 59 locations. Rounding up to a 250k weekend (~190ish actual) to calculate a PTA of $4237 and multiplying by 4,000 (assuming that many locations are even open) gives us just short of $17M. So based on what little data we have to go on, I think my estimated range is reasonable.

[lorddemaxus]

4 hours ago, antovolk said:

Someone on Blu-ray.com forums is claiming November and June dates are being considered...which makes sense after the thing with Godzilla possibly moving to May

How credible is this person? They also claim that all the other movies will be pushed which I find hard to believe happening at this point.

[reddevil19]

30 minutes ago, doublejack said:

You're welcome!

 

The trailer is up to 5.2M views on the main youtube channel now. It continues to track strongly.

 

I agree completely. In ordinary times, Tenet would be poised to have a nice opening and run. I think it would have a very good chance of becoming Nolan's top OW grosser for an original IP. I'm not sure if it could match Inception's overall run, but maybe it would be possible. I see the floor being comparable to Interstellar.

 

Given the current situation, though, all bets are off. We don't know how many theaters will be open, at what capacity they will operate, how many screens Tenet will get at open theaters (we can assume it will be a huge chunk but it won't be the only movie playing), and what percentage of the public would be willing to go out. It is a giant gamble. Surely WB execs have to know this. Will they risk a big budget tentpole as a trial balloon? I wouldn't.

 

If I have to throw a number out there, I'm thinking something in the 10-20M for an OW is reasonable given 75% or more of theaters are open, capacity is limited to 25-33% and maybe 25% of people are willing to go. Given that presently there are less than 100 theaters operating, even a 20M OW may be a pipe dream.

 

Just for fun, I did a quick projection based on The Wretched, which is playing in 59 locations. Rounding up to a 250k weekend (~190ish actual) to calculate a PTA of $4237 and multiplying by 4,000 (assuming that many locations are even open) gives us just short of $17M. So based on what little data we have to go on, I think my estimated range is reasonable.

While a low OW is very probable, I would advise not to extrapolate on anything tentatively playing now, before a big tent pole opens, specifically because that would draw people more and also because it's not just locations we're talking about, but screens. If it's playing on all 15 screens in a multiplex, 30% capacity suddenly isn't the same sort of issue. The question is which movie will attract enough people so that the screen count compensates the reduced screen capacity and we actually do see 25-30% sold in a situation where it's on 90% of screens, in at least 3600 locations? 

 

That's probably the one issue WB have to be analysing very carefully. As much as I think this will be good, you probably do need something with a far bigger built-in fanbase to go in first. 

 

And if studios don't want to risk a tent pole, then may as well scratch 2020 off altogether. Once cinema chains go bust, the media conglomerates can buy them next year and set up a cinema war similar to the streaming platform one. 

Amazon Screen, Theatreflix, WB's Box Office and so on... 

[redfirebird2008]

Setting aside the financial aspect of it for a moment. Nolan prefers everyone see his films on the largest screen possible with a good audience. I think they should delay it at least to June 2021 and perhaps later. Many people are going to be hesitant about stepping foot in movie theaters until a vaccine or 100% proven treatment is figured out by the medical folks. 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

Once cinema chains go bust, the media conglomerates can buy them next year and set up a cinema war similar to the streaming platform one. 

They did open the door to make that possible right ?: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Paramount_Pictures,_Inc.#Effort_to_Terminate_the_Paramount_decrees

 

1 hour ago, doublejack said:

I'm thinking something in the 10-20M for an OW

Are they still going for an opening weekend type of release ?, I would have thought they could have changed it for a tuesday one or something, but maybe it make more sense for multiplex theater to be able to be close than fully open instead of low business all the time even if it would be more secure.

 

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

. If it's playing on all 15 screens in a multiplex, 30% capacity suddenly isn't the same sort of issue.

I could imagine the reduced capacity being an issue in single-2 screen theater and IMAX but not for the large multiplex certainly, if this play 80 times in a multiplex a Saturday like an Avengers/Star wars, even at 20% of the seat available it could be not too far for what a Tenet would have usually got in seat by day (if not more) and it should be expecting less audience than usually.

Edited May 26, 2020 by Barnack

[reddevil19]

44 minutes ago, Barnack said:

They did open the door to make that possible right ?: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Paramount_Pictures,_Inc.#Effort_to_Terminate_the_Paramount_decrees

 

Are they still going for an opening weekend type of release ?, I would have thought they could have changed it for a tuesday one or something, but maybe it make more sense for multiplex theater to be able to be close than fully open instead of low business all the time even if it would be more secure.

 

I could imagine the reduced capacity being an issue in single-2 screen theater and IMAX but not for the large multiplex certainly, if this play 80 times in a multiplex a Saturday like an Avengers/Star wars, even at 20% of the seat available it could be not too far for what a Tenet would have usually got in seat by day (if not more).

Exactly. 

Still think delay is a better option, but... If all the stars align properly, there is a way for this to make very good numbers. However, still don't think this is the movie to push that capacity right now. 

[doublejack]

57 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

While a low OW is very probable, I would advise not to extrapolate on anything tentatively playing now, before a big tent pole opens, specifically because that would draw people more and also because it's not just locations we're talking about, but screens. If it's playing on all 15 screens in a multiplex, 30% capacity suddenly isn't the same sort of issue. The question is which movie will attract enough people so that the screen count compensates the reduced screen capacity and we actually do see 25-30% sold in a situation where it's on 90% of screens, in at least 3600 locations? 

 

That's probably the one issue WB have to be analysing very carefully. As much as I think this will be good, you probably do need something with a far bigger built-in fanbase to go in first. 

 

And if studios don't want to risk a tent pole, then may as well scratch 2020 off altogether. Once cinema chains go bust, the media conglomerates can buy them next year and set up a cinema war similar to the streaming platform one. 

Amazon Screen, Theatreflix, WB's Box Office and so on... 

I've been saying for months that this is what I think is going to happen. Things are heading this way and it seems more probable than ever. There is a chicken and egg situation developing. The regional theater chain Harkins has made this clear with the following statement

 

Quote

"For our business to reopen, another necessary criteria is a reliable and continuous slate of great new theatrical films. Currently, blockbuster films such as Warner Brothers’ Tenet and Wonder Woman 1984, Disney’s Mulan and others are scheduled to release this summer. Harkins expects to open our theatres a couple of weeks in advance of these blockbusters, presenting unique programming of previously released or specialty films," 

 

I'm going to assume that the major chains like AMC and Regal are going to hold a similar position.

 

So, will the studios dump a bunch of money into marketing new films when theaters aren't even open yet, gambling that when they do open the films will do well? The studios can't wait to see how many people are going out to see movies to make a decision, because theaters won't open en masse until a slate of blockbusters is about to release.

 

It is a classic catch-22. 

 

BTW, Amazon is already rumored to be moving in on AMC. Both AMC and Regal have permanently closed multiple locations during this shutdown. They are using the excuse of "lease expired on an under-performing location" but the reality is they don't have the money to pay for renewals. I think between the damage that has already been done and all the uncertainty about opening this summer and what the BO would look like will cause a domino effect. If Tenet, Mulan or another major film slated for this summer moves, look out below.... the sky will come crashing down.

[excel1]

Nope, MAKE WAY FOR KING NOLAN, HOLD THE DATE, AND RELEASE THIS MOVIE!

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

 

 

Quote

“I planned to do it using miniatures and set-piece builds and a combination of visual effects and all the rest,” Nolan said to Total Film magazine. “However, while scouting for locations in Victorville, California, the team discovered a massive array of old planes. We started to run the numbers…It became apparent that it would actually be more efficient to buy a real plane of the real size, and perform this sequence for real in camera, rather than build miniatures or go the CG route."

 

“It’s a strange thing to talk about – a kind of impulse buying, I suppose,” Nolan added. “But we kind of did, and it worked very well, with Scott Fisher, our special-effects supervisor, and Nathan Crowley, the production designer, figuring out how to pull off this big sequence in camera. It was a very exciting thing to be a part of.”

 

 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

NYC has to begin Phase One of reopening by next Friday (6/5) to have their theaters opened up by 7/17 according to NYS' guidelines btw. Just something to look out for.

Edited May 27, 2020 by Jayhawk the Hutt

[excel1]

You know Nolan is king when nobody gives a shit about Mulan and focused solely on this. 😎 

[reddevil19]

Just now, excel1 said:

You know Nolan is king when nobody gives a shit about Mulan and focused solely on this. 😎 

I mean... It IS scheduled to be the first big movie out. It's no more complicated than that 

[doublejack]

53 minutes ago, excel1 said:

You know Nolan is king when nobody gives a shit about Mulan and focused solely on this. 😎 

As was pointed out already, Mulan is scheduled to release after Tenet. Plus, people do care and are finding out info about Mulan. For example, it slipped out that there is a tentative VOD date for it of 10/27/20 because someone asked Disney+ help when it would be available for streaming. That reply was quickly deleted.

 

This is the Tenet thread so people are talking about Tenet. That's logical to me.

[Napoleon]

I see no buzz for this. The new trailer is getting very low view numbers. It needs to get delayed to 2021. People will only come back to theaters for their comfort food, meaning: superhero films.

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

I see no buzz for this. The new trailer is getting very low view numbers. It needs to get delayed to 2021. People will only come back to theaters for their comfort food, meaning: superhero films.

Relatively low view numbers, but lots of likes. This to me says Nolan's fanbase is impressed, but the general public is not here for this.

[antovolk]

There's an IndieWire Zoom webinar happening - NY/LA apparently only make up to 12-14% of domestic box office according to Paramount’s head of US distribution - but he’s bullish on Tenet still opening on 17th…thinking it might not necessarily move if NY/LA aren’t open...