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Eric Madrigal

PAPA NOL∀N'S TENƎꓕ | August 26 internationally. September 2 "in select US cities" | 75% on RT after 228 reviews

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Well, it was good while it lasted. RIP Endgame, TFA and Avatar. Tenet has just been released in 2024 and it already made 4 billion after 3 weeks. Nolan has used time travel to assure the most lucrative date for his new movie. In other 2024 news, The New Mutants are still waiting for release while Chaos Walking is still waiting for reshoots. ;)

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56 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

As I said in the other thread, almost impossible to do a theatrical release in Latin America, South Asia, China, and MENA until late August/early September. These countries would probably account for a huge amount of Tenet's gross under a normal release and PVOD is rarely used in these countries.

Latin America and China I get but are Nolan movies more popular than usual in MENA or South Asia?   

 

also Latin America isn't really THAT crazy about Nolan tbh so maybe they can sacrifice that market. Inception only made 10M in Brazil and 8M in Mexico and Interstellar made 5M in Brazil & 5.7M in Mexico.

 

 

so Nolan in Latin America isn't really comparable to superhero movies that do 15M-30M each in Brazil/Mexico easily. and we don't even know if Tenet will be another Inception/Interstellar type hit 

 

it's really just China that they can't sacrifice. 

 

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2 hours ago, TMP said:

Release all movies theatrically overseas, PVOD domestically. Since cinemas won't be opening up stateside for a long time

I think this is a viable plan and should happen, but not with Tenet or other large budget films. 2020 is done producing big box office numbers. It just isn't happening.

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WB is going to lose money on Tenet regardless of when they release it. Mulan's fate depends mostly on China  but I think all big budget movies are fucked for another 12 months or so. Studios need to go ahead and start releasing smaller movies.

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3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

WB is gonna announce the next delay this Friday I think. 

At the latest. California is pretty back to full lock down mode. I think they should stick this in the Oct. WW84 spot rather than do the two-week delay nonsense.

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Wouldn't be surprised to see this and Mulan go to September next with A Quiet Place and Wonder Woman keeping their current spots just to see if they can get the home releases out in time for Christmas so that there's some movies available in time for gift-giving this year.

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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see this and Mulan go to September next with A Quiet Place and Wonder Woman keeping their current spots just to see if they can get the home releases out in time for Christmas so that there's some movies available in time for gift-giving this year.

Maybe those dates are attempted, but I don't think they are realistic. If WB moves Tenet again and doesn't push it into next year, then they are just wishfully thinking. The domestic market will not be suitable for a movie like that this year.

 

Also, with the economy in as bad shape as it is, I wouldn't put too much thought into gift-giving. That shouldn't be a factor in the studios decision making.

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11 minutes ago, stealthyfrog said:

It's probably horseshit. The writer probably just doubled the production and P&A budget to calculate breakeven. Most 150 mil+ blockbusters  likely cost at least 350 mil including marketing and extra costs.

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Breakeven point should be around $500 million for a $225 million movie. I don't see how it gets anywhere close to that number if they go ahead with the August/September release.

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2 hours ago, stealthyfrog said:

 

2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

It's probably horseshit. The writer probably just doubled the production and P&A budget to calculate breakeven. Most 150 mil+ blockbusters  likely cost at least 350 mil including marketing and extra costs.

 

The article do not talk about the movie break even point, it did mention a bad approximation (50% rental from world wide BO seem quite high) of what it would need to do to break even in theater:

Nolan’s film would need to gross $800 million worldwide in order to break even in theaters.

 

I am really sure why it is mentioned too, is it by pure misconception-ignorance/online bo bad reflex talk or by purpose to sound more spectacular...

 

A quick look seeing is experience in acquisition and is coverage of the multiple future windows of the movie Capone, I think is to break even in theaters, is to be taken literally, that he knows that it is not the break even point of the movie.

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According to the author (on Twitter), the article's guesstimate is based on a (imo way overinflated) global P&A of 200m, plus interest on the production loan, which is an interesting point.

 

Yeah more realistically we're looking at closer to 600m I think. And yeah that's to break even just theatrically. Surely with COVID that goal post for blockbusters is gone now, they'll have to rely way more on all those other ancillary revenues.

Edited by antovolk
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Was reading rumors that Tenet might screen at the Venice film festival, if it does then they will probably delay it to September or October and the latter will clash with the release date of WW84

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1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

Was reading rumors that Tenet might screen at the Venice film festival, if it does then they will probably delay it to September or October and the latter will clash with the release date of WW84

Where'd you hear about this?

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6 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Where'd you hear about this?

there was an IndieWire article speculating on the possibility due to the Italian release being initially in September, now it's in line with the rest of the world

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