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Eric Atreides

PAPA NOL∀N'S TENƎꓕ | August 26 internationally. September 2 "in select US cities" | 75% on RT after 228 reviews

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2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Ooh, Mulan’s success will be measured in new subscribers,

Well, not really. And I think that would be unfair towards the film. People are unlikely to subscribe just for that, when they also have to pay 30 bucks on top. Not to mention, it will still play theatrically in a few markets. So its success will literally be measured by how many of those will actually end up paying the 30 USD, plus its box office. If they get 10 million subscribers to pay the premium (mostly in North America, where VOD is actually a thing, and cinemas are unlikely to have much success for it with so few open anyway), and it also makes 200 million in markets where it ends up playing, then it will be a success, all things considered.

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34 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Well, not really. And I think that would be unfair towards the film. People are unlikely to subscribe just for that, when they also have to pay 30 bucks on top. Not to mention, it will still play theatrically in a few markets. So its success will literally be measured by how many of those will actually end up paying the 30 USD, plus its box office. If they get 10 million subscribers to pay the premium (mostly in North America, where VOD is actually a thing, and cinemas are unlikely to have much success for it with so few open anyway), and it also makes 200 million in markets where it ends up playing, then it will be a success, all things considered.

As I said on the other thread, I'm guessing Disney never tells us that number.

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8 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

As I said on the other thread, I'm guessing Disney never tells us that number.

Oh, ya, I expect that to be the case - I just meant internally, of course. I do feel like, out of any streaming service, they're the ones most likely to succeed with this kind of release, for this kind of movie. Their membership is built around family flicks in any case, and they're far more likely to have subscribers with kids, who will consider paying 30 bucks a decent deal. 

So I think it will be successful in that respect - and if the numbers are quite high, I think they will report it. 

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We’ve seen moves from from Universal and Disney this week, in terms of windowing and putting movies straight to streaming. I wonder what your thinking is around that, given the ongoing pandemic that has no clear return to normalcy at this stage.

It’s a great question. As you can imagine, I spend a lot of time, obviously, with medical experts, and trying to get as close as I can to where the pandemic is heading — vaccines, research and all those other things.

I’d say a couple of things. I think in the fullness of time, we will get back to sports stadiums, we will get back to theaters, we will get back to restaurants. I think that will happen — it’s a question of when and in what countries and what cities and towns, because I think it really is going to be very surgical in terms of the differences.

So I believe that… because we’re humans and we’re resilient and we solve these problems together. The second thing is: Does the presence of a pandemic do things that cause changes in this industry? And the answer is absolutely. I think it accelerates changes that are probably already afoot.

I think it’s fair to say that from a theatrical perspective, some of the things we’re seeing, including “Mulan,” they’re very pragmatic executions given that it is what is is. That said, I think it’s also fair to say that there will be changes in a theatrical distribution. We’re going to lean into the actual distribution incredibly aggressively going forward. But I also think that — is the window going to stay at 130 plus days? I don’t think so. But I don’t think anybody else thinks so.

So the question is going how do we get from here to there, and that obviously is big for a lot of good copy, as they say in the press.

So you think you’d be open to making a similar move that Disney did with “Mulan” this week?

So I don’t have any comment on that specifically. I think with “Tenet” we should judge this based on our decision-making on “Tenet,” which is: We believe in the theatrical business. We’re excited to partner with Chris Nolan to get “Tenet” out in theaters first and foremost.

And then of course, it will be in another formats, in other venues, that are not theatrical. But I think, if you look at our behavior, we’re believers in the theatrical experience, and are also of course in very close communication with everyone in the exhibition industry, about the topic of windows and about how we can collectively serve consumers in the best way possible going forward.

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6 hours ago, cax16 said:


 

 

 

 

We’ve seen moves from from Universal and Disney this week, in terms of windowing and putting movies straight to streaming. I wonder what your thinking is around that, given the ongoing pandemic that has no clear return to normalcy at this stage.

It’s a great question. As you can imagine, I spend a lot of time, obviously, with medical experts, and trying to get as close as I can to where the pandemic is heading — vaccines, research and all those other things.

I’d say a couple of things. I think in the fullness of time, we will get back to sports stadiums, we will get back to theaters, we will get back to restaurants. I think that will happen — it’s a question of when and in what countries and what cities and towns, because I think it really is going to be very surgical in terms of the differences.

So I believe that… because we’re humans and we’re resilient and we solve these problems together. The second thing is: Does the presence of a pandemic do things that cause changes in this industry? And the answer is absolutely. I think it accelerates changes that are probably already afoot.

I think it’s fair to say that from a theatrical perspective, some of the things we’re seeing, including “Mulan,” they’re very pragmatic executions given that it is what is is. That said, I think it’s also fair to say that there will be changes in a theatrical distribution. We’re going to lean into the actual distribution incredibly aggressively going forward. But I also think that — is the window going to stay at 130 plus days? I don’t think so. But I don’t think anybody else thinks so.

So the question is going how do we get from here to there, and that obviously is big for a lot of good copy, as they say in the press.

So you think you’d be open to making a similar move that Disney did with “Mulan” this week?

So I don’t have any comment on that specifically. I think with “Tenet” we should judge this based on our decision-making on “Tenet,” which is: We believe in the theatrical business. We’re excited to partner with Chris Nolan to get “Tenet” out in theaters first and foremost.

And then of course, it will be in another formats, in other venues, that are not theatrical. But I think, if you look at our behavior, we’re believers in the theatrical experience, and are also of course in very close communication with everyone in the exhibition industry, about the topic of windows and about how we can collectively serve consumers in the best way possible going forward.

My takeaway is that Tenet probably goes VOD shortly after Sep 2.

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To be honest, what that reads as to me is "Shit...I dunno what's gonna happen". Not necessarily in a "we have no plan" sort of way, but in a "we have a few half-baked plans" sort of way.

 

It's clear everyone believes shortening the theatrical window is a done deal, but it's also clear that, if anyone wants to make money off theatrical right now, they need to do it through long legs and a long release.

It's also clear every major studio is fucked in terms of streaming compared to Disney, due to international reach. International distribution rights have made a right mess of back catalogs, making worldwide roll-out difficult for Max, or Peacock or whatever the fuck else is out there. Compare that to Disney+, and you can see why going the Mulan route just isn't an option. Most studios don't have one streaming service to go on that has a massive reach. 

 

I doubt Mulan will draw many new subscribers that would then have to pay a premium for the movie itself. I also doubt the majority of subscribers will pay for it. But when the base is already high enough, even a 30-40% purchase rate would mean a wild success. That's what makes Disney's move a potentially good one but not an option for other studios. Streaming services are too fragmented and VOD is just too small a segment internationally.

 

What COULD be interesting is if someone approached Netflix and worked out a deal - instead of outright selling the movie to them, let's say WB put one of their big releases on there. Let's say WW84 for argument's sake. Do a 24-48 hour window to watch from time of payment, and make it 15 bucks. 30% split for Netflix and first dibs on streaming rights once the original window ends (say, give it 3 months of this model, 2 months for Blu Ray, then "free", subscription-based streaming). Considering the subscriber base for Netflix and the reasonable cost for a prime release... I dunno, I'd certainly pay that. But I can't see studios doing that either. So, the alternative is for studios to accelerate roll-out of their streaming services worldwide.

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3 things with that Tenet PVOD thing

1. Will major chains go for it? Any discussion of it now would require a similar deal to Universal/AMC, which Regal publicly told Uni to fuck off with basically and Cinemark is ambivalent. Now if Tenet underperforms below even the COVID adjusted expectations in open states on Labor Day....

2. WB's release plan for the US - it may very well end up taking *longer* than 3 weeks for NY/LA to get it. What's the point of putting it on PVOD before the major markets get it (given the positioning of the release as an olive branch to cinemas)

3. Nolan - seems to believe in the 90+ day as a matter of principle.

 

 

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

To be honest, what that reads as to me is "Shit...I dunno what's gonna happen". Not necessarily in a "we have no plan" sort of way, but in a "we have a few half-baked plans" sort of way.

 

It's clear everyone believes shortening the theatrical window is a done deal, but it's also clear that, if anyone wants to make money off theatrical right now, they need to do it through long legs and a long release.

It's also clear every major studio is fucked in terms of streaming compared to Disney, due to international reach. International distribution rights have made a right mess of back catalogs, making worldwide roll-out difficult for Max, or Peacock or whatever the fuck else is out there. Compare that to Disney+, and you can see why going the Mulan route just isn't an option. Most studios don't have one streaming service to go on that has a massive reach. 

 

I doubt Mulan will draw many new subscribers that would then have to pay a premium for the movie itself. I also doubt the majority of subscribers will pay for it. But when the base is already high enough, even a 30-40% purchase rate would mean a wild success. That's what makes Disney's move a potentially good one but not an option for other studios. Streaming services are too fragmented and VOD is just too small a segment internationally.

 

What COULD be interesting is if someone approached Netflix and worked out a deal - instead of outright selling the movie to them, let's say WB put one of their big releases on there. Let's say WW84 for argument's sake. Do a 24-48 hour window to watch from time of payment, and make it 15 bucks. 30% split for Netflix and first dibs on streaming rights once the original window ends (say, give it 3 months of this model, 2 months for Blu Ray, then "free", subscription-based streaming). Considering the subscriber base for Netflix and the reasonable cost for a prime release... I dunno, I'd certainly pay that. But I can't see studios doing that either. So, the alternative is for studios to accelerate roll-out of their streaming services worldwide.

They could also just...do what Universal and others are doing - PVODing it through iTunes, Amazon etc. Only Disney has set the watermark by doing PVOD on their own SVOD service. And perhaps only just in the US while rest of world gets it traditionally.

Edited by antovolk
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36 minutes ago, antovolk said:

3 things with that Tenet PVOD thing

1. Will major chains go for it? Any discussion of it now would require a similar deal to Universal/AMC, which Regal publicly told Uni to fuck off with basically and Cinemark is ambivalent. Now if Tenet underperforms below even the COVID adjusted expectations in open states on Labor Day....

2. WB's release plan for the US - it may very well end up taking *longer* than 3 weeks for NY/LA to get it. What's the point of putting it on PVOD before the major markets get it (given the positioning of the release as an olive branch to cinemas)

3. Nolan - seems to believe in the 90+ day as a matter of principle.

 

 

They could also just...do what Universal and others are doing - PVODing it through iTunes, Amazon etc. Only Disney has set the watermark by doing PVOD on their own SVOD service. And perhaps only just in the US while rest of world gets it traditionally.

The problem with that is PVOD is almost non-existent outside North America. It's just not habitual and it won't be for a while. Truly changing the game from theatrical to digital streaming requires a worldwide effort. Going with existing MASSIVE streaming services is a far better option. 

Edited by reddevil19
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11 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

No snark: I really would love to know what WB's expectations for this are.

Most likely hoping that overseas (or at least countries that have gotten it under control) will be enough to make up for the (probably) disastrous numbers that await it here.

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This is meant to open on August 27th here in New Zealand. However we just got put up to Alert Level 2 nationwide and Level 3 for Auckland (where over 50% of the movie theatre market is) allegedly it’s just for 3 day while they do testing but I could see that being easily extended.
 

Sucks for Tenet as here in NZ we haven’t had to worry about social distancing for cinemas meaning they can operate at full capacity the last few weeks, doubt that will be back in effect by the time  the movie releases meaning at the very least shows will have a more limited amount of tickets to be sold, also people will likely (especially in Auckland) be more hesitant to go now than they would a few days ago. Also should note Tenet hasn’t had any presale a yet so I guess it could be delayed but I doubt. NZ isn’t a major market but I could have been a small bright spot that’s looking less likely, seems like everything is going against this film.

Edited by Jamiem
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