Jump to content

Eric Atreides

PAPA NOL∀N'S TENƎꓕ | August 26 internationally. September 2 "in select US cities" | 75% on RT after 228 reviews

Recommended Posts

15 hours ago, dudalb said:

 All it did was prove a huge budget blockbuster needs an alive and well US threatrical market to stand a chance of breaking even, let alone get into profit.

Not really though. If an original film can still make 350 mil+ in the current state, you don't think a franchise film like Bond or Black Widow can't break even?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Not really though. If an original film can still make 350 mil+ in the current state, you don't think a franchise film like Bond or Black Widow can't break even?

Tenet is a financial disaster. It proved that films like Black Widow and Bond cannot be released in the current conditions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, doublejack said:

Tenet is a financial disaster. It proved that films like Black Widow and Bond cannot be released in the current conditions.

Tenet's gonna end up being a small flop and let's be honest, more than what most people expected here (don't tell me you expected the movie to make more than 300 mil WW) and certainly is doing decent numbers OS. Black Widow and Bond should easily be able to double Tenet numbers, OS at least which would make them both profitable.

Edited by lorddemaxus
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



3 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Tenet’s OS numbers have been pretty solid considering. But there’s a big question mark about Nov OS conditions being as favorable as Aug/Sep

Yeah, that's the biggest problem here. But I think Bond and BW would've been profitable if they released in the same conditions as Tenet.

Edited by lorddemaxus
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites



3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Not really though. If an original film can still make 350 mil+ in the current state, you don't think a franchise film like Bond or Black Widow can't break even?

Maybe they could break even. But, do you think studios just want to break even? No, they don't. They aren't in the business of breaking even or losing money on films that were going to be surefire hits prior the pandemic. 

 

Also, OS, BO does not = DOM BO. Studios take a much higher domestic cut. $41M DOM for a film that would have made $140-$170M DOM is money going down the drains. People need to stop acting like Tenet's numbers are okay. They aren't. Yes, OS is somewhat okay, but still not great. DOM is a clusterfuck. Maybe if BW released in NOV, it would have made $100M DOM. That would have been awful. Anyway, the point is, studios aren't taking any chances after they saw what Tenet did.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

Maybe they could break even. But, do you think studios just want to break even? No, they don't. They aren't in the business of breaking even or losing money on films that were going to be surefire hits prior the pandemic. 

 

Also, OS, BO does not = DOM BO. Studios take a much higher domestic cut. $41M DOM for a film that would have made $140-$170M DOM is money going down the drains. People need to stop acting like Tenet's numbers are okay. They aren't. Yes, OS is somewhat okay, but still not great. DOM is a clusterfuck. Maybe if BW released in NOV, it would have made $100M DOM. That would have been awful. Anyway, the point is, studios aren't taking any chances after they saw what Tenet did.

Breaking even right now is better than doubling your sunk costs, espescially for a studio like MGM (for Bond) who don't really have the cash flow to delay Bond again.

 

And if Black Widow made $100 mil DOM and $600 mil OS, that's a profit for Disney and not awful. Same with Bond (even moreso tbh since these movies usually make most of their revenue OS).

 

Edit: Would like to add the goal of a business isn't just to make as much profit as possible and is a pretty big oversimplication.

Edited by lorddemaxus
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Breaking even right now is better than doubling your sunk costs, espescially for a studio like MGM (for Bond).

 

And if Black Widow made $100 mil DOM and $600 mil OS, that's a profit for Disney and not awful. Same with Bond (even moreso tbh since these movies usually make most of their revenue OS).

I doubt BW can make $600M OS. I think maybe $450. And, no, if Disney felt breaking even was the right way to go, they would release BW now. Again, studios aren't in the business of breaking even or losing money. Also, with a second wave likely coming (case numbers are ticking up globally), studios aren't going to take any further chances.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

I doubt BW can make $600M OS. I think maybe $450. And, no, if Disney felt breaking even was the right way to go, they would release BW now. Again, studios aren't in the business of breaking even or losing money. Also, with a second wave likely coming (case numbers are ticking up globally), studios aren't going to take any further chances.

You really think Black Widow will only make $150-$120 mil more than Tenet OS? Considering that it'll likely gross around $150 mil just in China, compared to Tenet's $70 mil that would mean that it would gross just $50-$70 mil more than Tenet OS-China which we all know would likely not happen.

Quote

Also, with a second wave likely coming (case numbers are ticking up globally), studios aren't going to take any further chances.

I know this, but this has nothing to do what Tenet proved. Tenet proved that a major franchise film would've been a decent success had it released in Tenet's spot.

Edited by lorddemaxus
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites



8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

You really think Black Widow will only make $150-$120 mil more than Tenet OS? Considering that it'll likely gross around $150 mil just in China, compared to Tenet's $70 mil that would mean that it would gross just $50-$70 mil more than Tenet OS-China which we all know would likely not happen.

Part of my OS gross factors in a second wave and other countries shutting down. $450 is the ceiling of what I actually think is possible. Anyway, if Disney felt as you do about the BO, they would have kept the date, but clearly they weren't too optimistic. 

 

To clarify, this is if BW kept its November date.

 

 

8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

 

I know this, but this has nothing to do what Tenet proved. Tenet proved that a major franchise film would've been a decent success had it released in Tenet's spot.

No. Tenet proved that the domestic market is in the gutter. It couldn't even open to $10M. I'm sorry, but that's god awful.

Edited by CloneWars
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

Part of my OS gross factors in a second wave and other countries shutting down. $450 is the ceiling of what I actually think is possible.

For a Tenet type movie maybe, but you can probably do $450m in China alone right now no (say if Avatar 2 or Endgame type got a release) ?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



4 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

Part of my OS gross factors in a second wave and other countries shutting down. $450 is the ceiling of what I actually think is possible. Anyway, if Disney felt as you do about the BO, they would have kept the date, but clearly they weren't too optimistic. 

 

To clarify, this is if BW kept its November date.

Black Widow probably moved because MCU movies generally make more revenue DOM than OS. And Disney seems to think it's good enough for an original animated film. MGM is also keeping Bond where it is because OS right now (not sure in November) is at a level where Bond would be profitable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, CloneWars said:

Maybe they could break even. But, do you think studios just want to break even? No, they don't. They aren't in the business of breaking even or losing money on films that were going to be surefire hits prior the pandemic. 

 

Also, OS, BO does not = DOM BO. Studios take a much higher domestic cut. $41M DOM for a film that would have made $140-$170M DOM is money going down the drains. People need to stop acting like Tenet's numbers are okay. They aren't. Yes, OS is somewhat okay, but still not great. DOM is a clusterfuck. Maybe if BW released in NOV, it would have made $100M DOM. That would have been awful. Anyway, the point is, studios aren't taking any chances after they saw what Tenet did.

But when will it make $140-$170M DOM?  August was a low point for viral spread in the US, before college and schools opened and started another slow rise...so, it was a good time to get folks reacquainted and comfortable with watching film in a small, sanitized communal environment.

 

If it's "well, Tenet or XXX movie will make that 2 years from now in the DOM market", I contend it won't, b/c if no one releases, there won't be a market to go to...if nothing releases DOM, the DOM market shrivels and dies, and some of that will be permanent.  The way to avoid that permanence is to keep the market afloat now with something.  WB and Tenet did its part.  Maybe Disney will do its part with Soul.  It would be nice for others to also give something in the now-ish timeframe (fall/winter 2020) to get something later...b/c if they don't, there is no guarantee of later.

Edited by TwoMisfits
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites





On 9/29/2020 at 11:04 AM, CloneWars said:

Maybe they could break even. But, do you think studios just want to break even? No, they don't. They aren't in the business of breaking even or losing money on films that were going to be surefire hits prior the pandemic. 

 

Also, OS, BO does not = DOM BO. Studios take a much higher domestic cut. $41M DOM for a film that would have made $140-$170M DOM is money going down the drains. People need to stop acting like Tenet's numbers are okay. They aren't. Yes, OS is somewhat okay, but still not great. DOM is a clusterfuck. Maybe if BW released in NOV, it would have made $100M DOM. That would have been awful. Anyway, the point is, studios aren't taking any chances after they saw what Tenet did.

Studios don't spend huge amounts of money on a film to just break even.

i think the attempts to prove that Tenat's release was a sucess are getting more and more pathetic by the day.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites





18 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Studios don't spend huge amounts of money on a film to just break even.

i think the attempts to prove that Tenat's release was a sucess are getting more and more pathetic by the day.

 

Dude, no one's saying Tenet's a success. You're just making it up in your mind (like half the crap you say on here). 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites









Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.