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Eric Atreides

PAPA NOL∀N'S TENƎꓕ | August 26 internationally. September 2 "in select US cities" | 75% on RT after 228 reviews

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15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

If New York and California does not open(looks likely) then this moves. if by some miracle these States let theaters open even with limited capacity(like 25-33%) then this movie will open. but looks tough based on current situation. Fall wont be good either. 

Hasn't California been in decline in terms of cases and hospitalisaions for sometime now? And NY has seen a pretty big decline in deaths too. I feel like these two states will be out of this sooner than the most of the country.

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11 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Hasn't California been in decline in terms of cases and hospitalisaions for sometime now? And NY has seen a pretty big decline in deaths too. I feel like these two states will be out of this sooner than the most of the country.

possible but still case numbers are high. Newsom did say phase 3 months away. New york numbers are still high and there is high risk of rebound with heavy reliance on public transport. We wont know for sure until July. 

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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

possible but still case numbers are high. Newsom did say phase 3 months away. New york numbers are still high and there is high risk of rebound with heavy reliance on public transport. We wont know for sure until July. 

I'm guessing studios are closely paying attention and will know by the end of May if this will be able to open in July or not. If yes they can start pumping out TV spots at that moment. The marketing budget for this is gonna be scaled back a bit since they won't be doing any of the usual press tour stuff that requires planning with the current release date (no premieres and any interviews will be done remotely) so they can afford to wait.

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1 hour ago, doublejack said:

The budget for this film was something north of $200M. It is not opening this year. Not with that budget. They'll never get their money back if they do release it as planned.

It’s getting sacrificed to the theaters like Mulan and Wonder Woman 2. 

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16 hours ago, Frozen said:

It’s getting sacrificed to the theaters like Mulan and Wonder Woman 2. 

It's possible. If these films are released it will be an olive branch from the studios to the exhibitors. Only a percentage of theaters will likely be open in July, all with limited seating. The majority of people will have no desire to go out and see a movie given the conditions. That formula doesn't add up to big box office numbers.

 

I personally think the theaters would do just as well with catalog releases, rather than sacrificing new films. There is demand to see highly regarded films on the big screen. In fact, a theater near me specializes in this. They primarily screen vintage films, but will show movies from the 80s, 90s and 2000s as well. They draw big crowds on fridays and saturdays. A few years ago I saw Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan and the crowd was about 1,500 people for my showing.

 

My belief is the type of person who goes to the theater in a pandemic is the die hard that really, really likes to go to the theater. Seeing something new is not a requirement to this individual. I think the financial downside to releasing new films in this circumstance is much worse than the potential upside. Obviously, it is not my call to make, though. We'll see if the studios do follow through with this idea and how it pans out. I'm predicting Tenet either moves out of 2020, or is released and does terrible.

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If this movie does terribly, that would just be another nail in the coffin for big theatrical movies that don’t involve superheroes or Disney remakes and sequels. Unfortunately, with the large production budget this movie has, it’s definitely going to be a big risk to keep the current release date. 

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1 hour ago, doublejack said:

It's possible. If these films are released it will be an olive branch from the studios to the exhibitors. Only a percentage of theaters will likely be open in July, all with limited seating. The majority of people will have no desire to go out and see a movie given the conditions. That formula doesn't add up to big box office numbers.

 

I personally think the theaters would do just as well with catalog releases, rather than sacrificing new films. There is demand to see highly regarded films on the big screen. In fact, a theater near me specializes in this. They primarily screen vintage films, but will show movies from the 80s, 90s and 2000s as well. They draw big crowds on fridays and saturdays. A few years ago I saw Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan and the crowd was about 1,500 people for my showing.

 

My belief is the type of person who goes to the theater in a pandemic is the die hard that really, really likes to go to the theater. Seeing something new is not a requirement to this individual. I think the financial downside to releasing new films in this circumstance is much worse than the potential upside. Obviously, it is not my call to make, though. We'll see if the studios do follow through with this idea and how it pans out. I'm predicting Tenet either moves out of 2020, or is released and does terrible.

Eh, the movie is still 2 months away. The conditions will be different to they are today. Maybe for worse, maybe for better, I don't know (although I think it's more likely that it gets better than worse). I think we'll see most major chains open cinemas by then espescially if surrounding states and countries re-opening earlier doesn't cause large spikes. Maybe a few places might still be closed but it's really about consumer confidence in 2 months time if you ask me and I think consumer confidence will increase once we've managed to minimise the outbreak.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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14 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

If this movie does terribly, that would just be another nail in the coffin for big theatrical movies that don’t involve superheroes or Disney remakes and sequels.

Not really.

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13 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

If this movie does terribly, that would just be another nail in the coffin for big theatrical movies that don’t involve superheroes or Disney remakes and sequels. Unfortunately, with the large production budget this movie has, it’s definitely going to be a big risk to keep the current release date. 

No, WB would just say the movie flopped because of COVID-19.

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16 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

If this movie does terribly, that would just be another nail in the coffin for big theatrical movies that don’t involve superheroes or Disney remakes and sequels. Unfortunately, with the large production budget this movie has, it’s definitely going to be a big risk to keep the current release date. 

I sincerely doubt that any movie coming out this year in theaters will make studios think anything. At most, maybe some sequels will be considered less likely to be greenlit

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Governor Newsom opened the beaches and parks over the last week. He saw pictures from Newport Beach, which made Florida look like an exercise in control. All California beaches and parks are closed AGAIN tomorrow. I don't see how theaters are opened anytime soon.

 

This scenario provides an interesting dilemma in social control. On one end, you have people who are like "OMG! THERE ARE PEOPLE WALKING OUTSIDE ON A BEACH! OH MY GAWWWWWW...!" The other end is people who simply miss what they were once accustomed to. When you acquiesce the former before easing restrictions, OF COURSE people will flood the very place they were restricted from entering.

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24 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Most definitely, but Chris Nolan is one of the few directors today whose name alone can sell a movie, so I’d hate to see this flop. 

With the way this has stayed put it seems likely that Nolan (one of the bigger champions of the theatrical experience) would be the one willing to "go first" as to whether people are ready to go to the movies again (and if it tanks, they'll just say they took a risk and it didn't work). Sure they've been discussing it, he's been stuck in his house for most of the last two months like the rest of us.

Edited by filmlover
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