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Eric Karga

PAPA NOL∀N'S TENƎꓕ | August 26 internationally. September 2 "in select US cities" | 75% on RT after 228 reviews

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3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

WB is gona lose over 200M on this movie if they release it where it is. Only Nolan would get that.

Huh? Its international numbers alone will guarantee that doesn't happen. It won't be an actual 200 million loss. Maybe in opportunity cost... 

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3 hours ago, reddevil19 said:

Huh? Its international numbers alone will guarantee that doesn't happen. It won't be an actual 200 million loss. Maybe in opportunity cost... 

What international numbers? This will do, like, 200M WW tops. And that is the very good scenario. A more realistic one would point to 120-130M WW.

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42 minutes ago, CJohn said:

What international numbers? This will do, like, 200M WW tops. And that is the very good scenario. A more realistic one would point to 120-130M WW.

That seems like a pretty good OW range.

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10 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm pretty sure polling would also say that people would not go to beaches eventhough we have actually seen people line up at beaches as soon as they open. Also this poll by THR says 22% but almost half say they'd more comfortable going if cinemas take safety measures which is going to be a huge selling point when cinemas reopen.

 

And Onward bombed because shit started to hit the fan once celebrities started getting the virus and cinemas did shutdown on its 2nd week. It would have bombed regardless because of its low OW but I doubt it could have added more than 10% to its OW if COVID didn't exist. We cannot compare the reaction to the pandemic at the start of it to the reaction later on.

That poll backs up what the other polls have said. Only a small fraction of people (something like 15-20%) are going to go out and do things. Until people start to feel safe, which won't be for months and months or possibly a year or more, people are more likely to stay home. Have you looked into how businesses in Georgia are doing now that the lockdowns have loosened? I'll give you a hint, they are not swamped with customers.

 

You also can't compare a mostly free, outdoor activity like going to a beach to something like seeing a movie. 

 

To you final statement that I bolded, yes we can. What makes you believe public sentiment has changed in any meaningful way in two months? The small anti-lockdown protests? Those are a mix of astroturfing by a handful of wealthy individuals and the actions of some fringe groups I won't single out. They by no means represent the general public.

 

If anything, now that we have real numbers I feel the public is even less likely to attend movies than they were in the first week of March. 30k new cases a day. 2k deaths a day. Mass graves. You seriously think that's a good environment to release a film in?

 

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4 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

That seems like a pretty good OW range.

Nope, that'll be the final haul. OW WW will be less than 50M.

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2 hours ago, doublejack said:

 

If anything, now that we have real numbers I feel the public is even less likely to attend movies than they were in the first week of March. 30k new cases a day. 2k deaths a day. Mass graves. You seriously think that's a good environment to release a film in?

 

Well good thing Tenet isn't releasing tomorrow.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, doublejack said:

Nope, that'll be the final haul. OW WW will be less than 50M.

Nah, that's the OW. 50 mil gonna be more like WW OD numbers.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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Posted (edited)

It will be interesting to see how theaters and distributors handle films with big hype surrounding them in the upcoming months. I imagine late summer/early fall is where there will be maximum potential for nostalgia fueled cinematic experiences. That's if we actually start implementing the phases this month or June.

 

Another thing to consider is how to reconfigure the seating arrangement to maximize space between audience members whilst making distributors and theater chains pleased with the altered attendance numbers. Competition for providing extremely comfortable seating arrangements at an affordable price. You're paying for the chair as much as you are for the film, but at a reasonable price. It'll be somewhat exciting to see how theaters modify the environment to suit the requirements of current health regulations/psychology of the people.

Edited by ThePhasmid

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Assuming the movie keeps its current release date (and that’s a big if), should we expect to get a final trailer that’s released exclusively online?

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2 hours ago, ThePhasmid said:

It will be interesting to see how theaters and distributors handle films with big hype surrounding them in the upcoming months. I imagine late summer/early fall is where there will be maximum potential for nostalgia fueled cinematic experiences. That's if we actually start implementing the phases this month or June.

 

Another thing to consider is how to reconfigure the seating arrangement to maximize space between audience members whilst making distributors and theater chains pleased with the altered attendance numbers. Competition for providing extremely comfortable seating arrangements at an affordable price. You're paying for the chair as much as you are for the film, but at a reasonable price. It'll be somewhat exciting to see how theaters modify the environment to suit the requirements of current health regulations/psychology of the people.

They can space out seating and just give it almost every screen at the theatre. There will be no other newish films when this opens.

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WB clearly saw the NFL Draft ratings and were like "👀.....someone has to be the first big movie to open back up" 

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I actually robbed a bunch of mob money and I'm ready to funnel it back into Tenet once it releases. 500m is the floor for Tenet

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I actually think Tenet should keep this release date or move back one year. 

 

delaying it to the fall will put it at huge risk in opening in the middle of the 2nd wave of the virus. whereas the current July date will be at the very end of this current wave, assuming theaters reopen.

 

 

 

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On 5/2/2020 at 7:17 AM, excel1 said:

FYI - if theaters are open, people are going to go. This whole thing where everyone stays home forever is hilarious. 95% of people will be pouring out of their homes ala China post-lockdown. Hell, there are a lot of people out RIGHT NOW...

This! We don't have to debate what's RIGHT or not. It's simply a prognostication and everyone can make of it what they will.

 

I for one would LOVE if I could see Tenet in July! Nolan/WB are clearly holding out until the last possible second. 

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Maybe it will just open here first. 
 

🤷‍♂️

 

 

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As we've all seen, all the headlines of the past week or so about major territories reopening cinemas - it's all about Tenet. If this pans out, smart for WB to jump on to this.

But this may be an even bigger turning point if there's widespread backlash.

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Other movies will follow suit as Tenet approaches and it looks like 2000+ theaters will be open by the Tenet release date.  Expect a busy August at the theaters. 

This will be Nolan’s boldest move yet.  There will either have a captive audience or the film will flail at the boxoffice. I think he’s going to nail this. Most states are planning phased reopenings for May. By July theaters will be part of the Phase 2-3s.  I’m excited to see Tenet in theaters. Go Nolan!

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Oooh so he’s happy to use Tenet is the guinea pig, glad its not Wonder Woman.

 

If cinemas want a new studio film as an incentive to open, I’m fine with it being this lol. Lamb to the slaughter or maybe a very interesting slow burn type run. 

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