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Weekend Thread: Miss Bala $650K preview

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23 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Idk i think Dragon Balls numbers are more impressive. The Upside always had a chance at beeing a sleeper hit, Dragon Ball just came out of nowhere.

True, dragonball was impressive (especially its OD). But what has me about the Upside wasn't that its a low-key drama (in January nonetheless) that's going to get close to a 5 multiplier. But it's a movie that was basically saved from a dead studio, where it was shelved for years. Almost didn't see the light of day, and to see how successful it has become is damn impressive. 

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Spiderverse will have a full week ~6.1M, be at 177 on Feb 7. Next week ~4.5M, goes to 181-182 on Feb 14. Then about flat on President’s Day week to be 185, 186ish on Feb 21. Should add about twice the President’s Day week for a total of 193-197.       

 

Ralph will have a week slightly above 1M to go to 197.3. Then about 198 on Feb 14 and 198.5 on Feb 21. Adding 2x President’s Day week would suggest a “natural” run of 199.5-199.8ish, very confident Disney will push it over.

Edited by Thanos Legion
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Spider Verse will likely be in the $190M range due to tough competition from Lego 2 and Dragon 3 though praying for that glorious $200M DOM due to the various injustices the cinematic gods Lord and Miller faced. If it gets close enough say, $190M by the Oscars, and wins Best Animated Feature if the voters actually watch the films this time, Sony can do a rexpansion, March 1st-3rd in say 1,500-1,800 theaters and try to get it there but that’s a wild guess at this point. 

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I have Spider-Verse topping out at 185 after the Oscars w/ a win too

with only re-expansions getting it further will it see further sales

 

anyone have proof that it wont be hit hard against Lego Movie, Valentines Day 4-day weekend in 2 weeks, or HTTYD3 in 3?  

are theaters holding it this weekend and next Thursday (V-day?)

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new - Lego 2 - 50 / 50

new - What Men Want - 18 / 18

new - Cold Pursuit - 12 / 12

new - The Prodigy - 6 / 6

 

-34% - The Upside - 5.7 / 83.5

-43% - Glass - 5.4 / 96.5

-49% - Miss Bala - 3.5 / 12.3

-33% - Green Book - 2.9 / 60.0

-43% - Aquaman - 2.8 / 327.5

-38% - Spider-Man - 2.8 / 179.2

-39% - Dog's Way Home - 2.2 / 39.0

-48% - Kid/King - 2.2 / 16.3

-52% - Escape Room - 1.4 / 54.2

 

-28% - Bohemian Rhapsody - 1.3 / 210.4

-30% - The Favourite  - 1.0 / 30.2

-50% - Mary Poppins - 1.0 / 169.8

-53% - Bumblebee - 0.9 / 125.6

-38% - Vice - 0.7 / 45.2

-33% - Star/Born - 0.6 / 208.8

-70% - Serenity - 0.5 / 8.6

-62% - Basis of Sex - 0.4 / 23.6

-18% - Beale Street Talks - 0.4 / 13.9

-67% - The Mule - 0.3 / 102.3

-60% - Ralph Breaks Internet - 0.3 / 197.5

 

 

        2/15 - 2/17    

Spoiler

30.0 - Lego Movie 2 - 95.0

19.0 - Alita: Battle Angel - 25.0

18.0 - Happy Death Day 2 - 25.0

13.0 - Isn't It Romantic? - 20.0

11.0 - What Men Want - 38.0

 6.0 - Cold Pursuit - 22.5

 3.0 - The Prodigy - 11.0

 

3.4 - The Upside - 89.0

2.7 - Glass - 101.0

2.1 - Green Book - 63.2

2.0 - Miss Bala - 15.6

1.7 - Aquaman - 330.1

1.7 - Spider-Man - 181.8

1.0 - Dog's Way Home - 40.6

1.0 - Kid/King - 17.9

0.9 - Bohemian Rhapsody - 211.8

0.8 - The Favourite - 31.4

0.6 - Escape Room - 55.3

0.5 - Star/Born - 209.6

0.5 - Vice - 46.0

0.4 - Bumblebee - 126.3

0.4 - Mary Poppins - 170.6

0.3 - Beale Street - 14.4

0.2 - Ralph Breaks Internet - 197.8

 

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