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Weekend Thread | An Asgardian pops in on p.9 ~ HTTYD3 17m, A:BA 3.1m, IIR 2.2m

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7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

It was a huge hit in France so the rights probably cost  a significant sum,  Kevin Hart doesn't do anything for cheap (even tweeting for his own films) and this was done a few years ago when Cranston was a hotter commodity.

Yup and it wasn’t just huge in france it was huge in Europe as a whole it’s made like $150M in France and $300M more in remaining European countries.

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5 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

maybe they make a Disney + series of Alita

 

One question is can you make a 6-8 episode series as CGI intensive as Alita would be on a little more than half of the current movie's budget?  That's more or less how they're budgeting the Star Wars shows they have planned for the service.  And would Cameron go along with the changes necessary to scale it down for that?

Edited by Horner
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24 minutes ago, Horner said:

 

One question is can you make a 6-8 episode series as CGI intensive as Alita would be on a little more than half of the current movie's budget?  That's more or less how they're budgeting the Star Wars shows they have planned for the service.  And would Cameron go along with the changes necessary to scale it down for that?

I thought about this possibility IN CASE they decide not to push forward with a proper sequel, and I think we need to see what The Mandalorian looks like first. I've been wondering forever what the production values are gonna be like for this and the Marvel shows on Disney +, budgets are pretty much as high end as it gets per episode, so I'm guessing it'll really be substantial, not quite movie like (which I think even shows like GOT don't achieve) but very impressive nonetheless.

 

I guess they can reuse the assets but yeah, I think Alita needs the big screen to do it justice, we'll see. 

Edited by TimmyRiggins
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15 minutes ago, Horner said:

 

One question is can you make a 6-8 episode series as CGI intensive as Alita would be on a little more than half of the current movie's budget?  That's more or less how they're budgeting the Star Wars shows they have planned for the service.  And would Cameron go along with the changes necessary to scale it down for that?

Only way i can see is a non CGI Alita. But even then the next part of the story involves Avengers levels of destruction which would be difficult to pull off in a series. The thing i could see working is a properly budgeted anime movie.

 

 

 

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Alita had very strong trending over the first 5-days and threw many people off including me. Didn't see this drop coming.

 

Is 40 away from 100 after 11.4 weekend. Seem like an impossible target considering next weekend the competition is huge and will loose more premium screens. 

 

China opened very well and is looking at 62-63 ow. Maoyan score is good but doesn't point to a break out. 115-120 total there imo. 63*1.9x gives 120.

 

Japan could end up with mid-high teens total and is not doing as well as hoped for. Japan can surprise with legs so is still early.

 

If OS-China-Japan can do 200 then 425 ww is the target.

 

200 OS-Ch-Jp + 87.5 Dom + 120 Ch + 17.5 Jp = 425

That is 2.5x it's prod budget which would be good but Dom is too low in comparison.

Edited by a2k
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Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

Alita: Battle Angel

 

Date Gross in ¥ ('000) Gross in $ Daily Change L/W Change Gross To Date
Previews ¥7,083 $1,054,018     $1,054,018
22/02/2019 ¥125,628 $18,722,504 1676.30%   $19,776,522
23/02/2019 ¥170,000 $25,335,320 35.32%   $45,111,842

 

 

Heading for $63-64mn opening weekend.

 

PS. Making this post already because I won't have PC to share table later, if any updation required, will do. :P

 

 

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Very good Fri for HTTYD2, but 60 seems a bit far innit?

3.0

14.0 [17.0 od]

23.1 (+65%)

16.2 (-30%)

= 56.3 ow (58.8 with Fandango previews)

 

Edit: @Charlie's 17.5 od will take it to 58.2 ow (60.7 cume) with these holds.

Edited by a2k
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24 minutes ago, a2k said:

Alita had very strong trending over the first 5-days and threw many people off including me. Didn't see this drop coming.

 

Is 40 away from 100 after 11.4 weekend. Seem like an impossible target considering next weekend the competition is huge and will loose more premium screens. 

 

China opened very well and is looking at 62-63 ow. Maoyan score is good but doesn't point to a break out. 115-120 total there imo. 63*1.9x gives 120.

 

Japan could end up with mid-high teens total and is not doing as well as hoped for. Japan can surprise with legs so is still early.

 

If OS-China-Japan can do 200 then 425 ww is the target.

 

200 OS-Ch-Jp + 87.5 Dom + 120 Ch + 17.5 Jp = 425

That is 2.5x it's prod budget which would be good but Dom is too low in comparison.

 

Yeah, as others have said good WoM did not jump over to the general audience which is a bit of a shame. Good reviews would have helped with this a lot. I do not want to hate on critics too much because Alita is certainly flawed, but it really got trashed hard. I guess having Cameron associated could have contributes to this a little (his name might be a two edged sword... helps with the marketing but heightens expectations from critics)? Also, the open endedness really hurt the movies score (though i really have no idea how else this could have been done better).

 

In general i think adapting manga like Alita is challenging because there is just one incarnation of the character and one story. With western comics you have constant reboots and relatively short story arcs (which frequently start and end at the same status quo) from which creators can choose and pick. Thus CBM mainly adapt characters and not so much the stories themselves. This provides a lot more freedom to make the material more suitable for a movie format.

 

With Alita not being successful in the US i am really starting to wonder whether there will ever be an adaption that actually clicks with general western audiences.

Edited by chuck0
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2 minutes ago, a2k said:

Very good Fri for HTTYD2, but 60 seems a bit far innit?

3.0

14.0 [17.0 od]

23.1 (+65%)

16.2 (-30%)

= 56.3 ow (58.8 with Fandango previews)

 

It will be 14.5 most likely. KF3 jumped 74% and dropped 30%. Consider that. 3 14.5 25.25 17.75 : 60.5

 

There you have it.

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29 minutes ago, a2k said:

Alita had very strong trending over the first 5-days and threw many people off including me. Didn't see this drop coming.

 

Is 40 away from 100 after 11.4 weekend. Seem like an impossible target considering next weekend the competition is huge and will loose more premium screens. 

 

China opened very well and is looking at 62-63 ow. Maoyan score is good but doesn't point to a break out. 115-120 total there imo. 63*1.9x gives 120.

 

Japan could end up with mid-high teens total and is not doing as well as hoped for. Japan can surprise with legs so is still early.

 

If OS-China-Japan can do 200 then 425 ww is the target.

 

200 OS-Ch-Jp + 87.5 Dom + 120 Ch + 17.5 Jp = 425

That is 2.5x it's prod budget which would be good but Dom is too low in comparison.

I honestly think they'll seriously consider a sequel if it does above 400 M WW which it should. If it was anyone else than Jim Cameron spearheading the film, perhaps not, but as others have said, and maybe that's delusional but I don't think it is, he can very well make a case for it and make it happen even if there's not necessarily a huge potential for growth.

 

Saturday could still jump big and the film ends up dropping less, but I don't know if even with great marketing, domestic could increase on a sequel? This is definitely one of those films that can gain a substantial following once it's out on VOD/BD/UHD/DVD, I hope and think it's worth pursuing.

 

Also, isn't Maoyan at 9.0? 

 

@chuck0 I think Alita or anime in general is too niche to ever score big domestically. And the mangas are absolutely bonkers and I'm surprised and pleased that the film retained some of that. I still think it's gonna recover on Saturday but maybe it simply did the most it could do domestically and no amount of good WOM can make up for it. Let's not forget that BO Pro had Alita at a 40 M something total, so this is still good,  but of course, with a big budget, expectations are high.

 

But it's a promising start regardless. 

Edited by TimmyRiggins
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