BoxOfficeFangrl Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 (edited) 4 hours ago, CloneWars said: I'm not sure if Ledger would have won or would have even gotten nominated if he hadn't died. TDK is the film that changed the Academy, especially the backlash from the lack of BP nom. While Ledger's performance was great and worthy of the win, to the best of my knowledge no one in a CB movie ever got an acting nomination before. I do think though, Ledger winning has paved way the way for BP getting the nom last year and Phoenix having a very strong chance of winning actor this year. There wss set buzz from other cast/crew from The Dark Knight about Heath maybe getting nominated, even before he died. Al Pacino got a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Dick Tracy, years earlier. A History of Violence got an acting nomination, Viggo Mortensen was considered a snub, and it's based on a graphic novel. Also, it wasn't comic book movie but Johnny Depp got a Best Actor nod with a summer action comedy based on a Disney theme park ride. He even won the SAG Award that year! As for Heath, I doubt the Academy voters cared as much about making up for a TDK snub (after all, they were the very set of people who denied the movie in Best Picture) as much as they wanted to honor a respected young actor in what was basically their last chance, and the performance was strong, besides. Ledger was only 26 when he was nominated for Brokeback and the feeling then was like it always is with younger leading men, that winning Best Actor at that age is "too soon", but he was now in the club and would have plenty of time to give other great performances... Anyway, Joaquin can probably win for a Joker movie that isn't a typical CBM, but it's still early and it's not like he's playing a real person, so the win isn't quite locked just yet. Just look at this category a year ago, the end result was definitely not what anyone expected last September... Edited September 14, 2019 by BoxOfficeFangrl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 14, 2019 Author Share Posted September 14, 2019 5 hours ago, CloneWars said: I'm not sure if Ledger would have won or would have even gotten nominated if he hadn't died. TDK is the film that changed the Academy, especially the backlash from the lack of BP nom. While Ledger's performance was great and worthy of the win, to the best of my knowledge no one in a CB movie ever got an acting nomination before. I do think though, Ledger winning has paved way the way for BP getting the nom last year and Phoenix having a very strong chance of winning actor this year. Nah, he still would've won. Seriously, who else would have in that field? Hoffman had just won and his performance wasn't undeniable enough to justify another so soon. RDJ? Seems like a miracle he managed to pull of a nom for that movie/performance in the first place. Brolin was a coattail nom off of the Best Actor winner and a Best Picture nominee considering he missed both the Globes and BAFTA plus he was having a good run at the time between American Gangster and No Country for Old Men the year before (as well as W. that same year - nobody cared about the movie but he was praised for it). And then there's Shannon, who wasn't nominated anywhere beforehand but probably showed up on the morning of nominations since he made the most sense as the lone above-the-line nominee for a movie that was expected to be a major contender all year long and ended up falling through the cracks a bit (since clearly they didn't fall for that Winslet/Reader category fraud). There's really nothing that suggests he wouldn't have won even if he were still alive regardless of TDK underperforming, especially when he would've won if not for Hoffman (also RIP) three years prior. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 I'm not buying the Joaquer winning yet - it's a performance already won for and its going to be divisive in a more easily recognized way than a Bohemian Rhapsody or Green Book. I think he'll get nominated but this feels like Adam Driver's year to bring it home. Everything about Driver, from his huge hot streak to his personal likability to his weird character actor turned star persona, is begging to be rewarded. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 3 hours ago, Cmasterclay said: I'm not buying the Joaquer winning yet - it's a performance already won for and its going to be divisive in a more easily recognized way than a Bohemian Rhapsody or Green Book. I think he'll get nominated but this feels like Adam Driver's year to bring it home. Everything about Driver, from his huge hot streak to his personal likability to his weird character actor turned star persona, is begging to be rewarded. without having seen either movie i know i'm just stoking the garbage fire but honestly low-key rooting for Driver to win just cause it'll piss off the fanboys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 i like them both so i don't mind who wins, but i'd give phoenix the edge right now just because it seems more showy and transformative, which is usually what wins. i guess the one recent win that's comparable to Driver's role would be Casey Affleck's, but casey affleck wasn't up against any "omg look how much weight this guy lost!" type performances. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 On 9/14/2019 at 6:23 PM, CoolioD1 said: i like them both so i don't mind who wins, but i'd give phoenix the edge right now just because it seems more showy and transformative, which is usually what wins. i guess the one recent win that's comparable to Driver's role would be Casey Affleck's, but casey affleck wasn't up against any "omg look how much weight this guy lost!" type performances. That's what I thought until an hour ago when I heard audio leak of Driver's Be Alive performance from the movie. I've been sleeping on this one as a potential winner. It's a mind blowing performance. Reviews didn't oversell it. Big, big thing. So whichever wins I'm fine for both are massive talents. But yeah, after hearing this I'm not surprised Marriage Story sneaked into TIFF awards. Super emotionally resonant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Valonqar said: That's what I thought until an hour ago when I heard audio leak of Driver's Be Alive performance from the movie. I've been sleeping on this one as a potential winner. It's a mind blowing performance. Reviews didn't oversell it. Big, big thing. So whichever wins I'm fine for both are massive talents. But yeah, after hearing this I'm not surprised Marriage Story sneaked into TIFF awards. Super emotionally resonant. oh ok, i didn't know you listened to an audio leak of a scene from the movie without any context, this changes everything. you are exhausting. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: oh ok, i didn't know you listened to an audio leak of a scene from the movie without any context, this changes everything. you are exhausting. My apology. Should have explained that I know the context for reviews explained the context. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Valonqar said: My apology. Should have explained that I know the context for reviews explained the context. it's still dumb. even if he does end up winning the way you got there is still dumb. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 (edited) It's dumb to you. I'm impressed to that's that. Edited September 16, 2019 by Valonqar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TMP Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 Bobby D nom is happening looking at those reviews imo. Joaq Driver DiCaprio Dirty Grandpa Banders or Pryce Unsure on the last spot. Could see either of the first 2 winning it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 phoenix was good. banderas is still my personal winner in the category so far this year though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 8, 2019 Author Share Posted October 8, 2019 For the few wondering why Disney isn't campaigning RDJ it's because he doesn't want to. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Is there any chance Song Kang-ho can get a nomination for Parasite? The film needs to keep building its momentum but clearly it's off to a promising start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 18 minutes ago, Spaghetti said: Is there any chance Song Kang-ho can get a nomination for Parasite? The film needs to keep building its momentum but clearly it's off to a promising start. Never say never. Though he'd definitely get in for Supporting. Of course, both Lead and Supporting are pretty competitive this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 i definitely think they'd run him in supporting since it's a borderline case. that would be the smarter way to go. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 6:57 AM, Spaghetti said: Is there any chance Song Kang-ho can get a nomination for Parasite? The film needs to keep building its momentum but clearly it's off to a promising start. Both Actor and Supporting Actor seem a bit too crowded for it to happen. Best Actor already has an actor from a foreign film gunning for the nomination. My list for both: Actor: Adam Driver Jonathan Pryce Joaquin Phoenix Robert De Niro Antonio Banderas Supp. Actor: Brad Pitt Al Pacino Anthony Hopkins Tom Hanks John Lithgow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 I'm not sure Netflix will get 3 Actors in. One of Driver/DeNiro/Pryce could miss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, Valonqar said: I'm not sure Netflix will get 3 Actors in. One of Driver/DeNiro/Pryce could miss. You're right. All the other potential nominees have weak chances tho imo. I'll wait for sometime before replacing one of the Netflix actors. I feel like people make the same mistake with Best Picture nominations (most predictions have 3 Netflix films and 3 Sony films in there). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: You're right. All the other potential nominees have weak chances tho imo. I'll wait for sometime before replacing one of the Netflix actors. I feel like people make the same mistake with Best Picture nominations (most predictions have 3 Netflix films and 3 Sony films in there). I think The Irishman and Marriage Story are easily the ones getting in among the Netflix titles (not feeling The Two Popes at the moment). As for the Sony titles we'll have to see what the box office numbers and overall reception to A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Little Women look like when they come out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
