Jake Gittes Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Be a shame if Di Caprio missed. It's some of his best work. I like him better than Pitt in the movie too. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: Be a shame if Di Caprio missed. It's some of his best work. I like him better than Pitt in the movie too. I’m doubtful DiCaprio misses. I could see him getting in even if OUATIH missed a BP nod. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: Be a shame if Di Caprio missed. It's some of his best work. I like him better than Pitt in the movie too. I think he's in quite safely tbh. Post-Oscar afterglow nomination (albeit a few years later than they usually occur) in what's likely to be a major contender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Who are Leo's internal competitors? Sony's going to push OUATIH big time (reviews+boxoffice+industry-friendly theme) and prospect is very good for Picture, Director, Original, Supporting Actor, maybe Supporting Actress (unless Margot gets in for Bombshell). Hard to miss Actor in this situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xftg123 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 7 hours ago, Valonqar said: Who are Leo's internal competitors? Mainly these: -Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) -Adam Driver (Marriage Story) -Robert De Niro (The Irishman) -Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) -Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) -Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari) -Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) -Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) The ones I put in bold are for the biggest in terms of competitors Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 11 hours ago, Xftg123 said: Mainly these: -Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) -Adam Driver (Marriage Story) -Robert De Niro (The Irishman) -Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) -Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) -Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari) -Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) -Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) The ones I put in bold are for the biggest in terms of competitors Sorry, I didn't explain internal. It means from the same studio that made OUATIH. None of bolded actors is from a Sony movie. Joaquin is WB. Adam/Bob/Jonathan are Netflix which means these 3 are each others competition for studio attention, whom to give more push. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 nobody said he had internal competition you're arguing against a point nobody is making. the fact of it is even though leo is real good in the movie it's pretty likely he's not actually going to win anything and is just gonna be seen as a filler nom. and those are always in danger of being the "surprise snub" internal competition or no. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Agreed that filler noms are vulnerable more than noms gunning for the win which is why it's baffling to me that some Oscar prognosticators don't have Phoenix in Top 5 let alone Top 2. That said, internal competition does matter for studio won't give everyone equal push and actors with bigger push have better shot. Simple. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 43 minutes ago, Valonqar said: Agreed that filler noms are vulnerable more than noms gunning for the win which is why it's baffling to me that some Oscar prognosticators don't have Phoenix in Top 5 let alone Top 2. That said, internal competition does matter for studio won't give everyone equal push and actors with bigger push have better shot. Simple. Well, in terms of internal competition, the only other Best Actor candidate from a Sony film is Matthew Rhys for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Valonqar said: That said, internal competition does matter for studio won't give everyone equal push and actors with bigger push have better shot. Simple. Again nobody is making the opposing argument. You’re arguing with a wall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: Again nobody is making the opposing argument. You’re arguing with a wall. Ah but I'm arguing with something! @SLAM! thanks! Weak internal competition since hanks is MVP and he's going supporting. Edited October 17, 2019 by Valonqar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 I think Leo gets in but that's in large part because I think Hollywood is a very strong contender that could well take home the whole thing - if the movie underperforms that expectation at all Leo is in trouble (sadly - best male performance of the year). I still think Murphy is getting underrated. Dude is hosting SNL and doing his standup special right as Oscar season is really picking up, and its going to drive a big time welcome back narrative IMO. I have him as my fifth or sixth nominee but like the third most likely to actually win, if that makes sense. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said: I think Leo gets in but that's in large part because I think Hollywood is a very strong contender that could well take home the whole thing - if the movie underperforms that expectation at all Leo is in trouble (sadly - best male performance of the year). I still think Murphy is getting underrated. Dude is hosting SNL and doing his standup special right as Oscar season is really picking up, and its going to drive a big time welcome back narrative IMO. I have him as my fifth or sixth nominee but like the third most likely to actually win, if that makes sense. One thing that's definitely in Eddie Murphy's corner is the Golden Globes. Best Actor is pretty packed, but there's no way Dolemite Is My Name isn't pushed in the Comedy/Musicsl categories. That nomination would keep him visible. Plus, it's very easy for voters to watch a film on Netflix. Very convenient. I doubt Ballad of Buster Scruggs would've gotten those three nominations without the convenience factor tied to the access granted to the film by Netflix. We talk about how only a certain amount of things from Netflix will make it in. I'm saying, with ease of access to films that would actually deserve nominations... Do they even have to campaign that hard? Yeah, Eddie Murphy still has a great shot. He's easily a Top 10 competitor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 Bale and Damon will both be campaigned in Lead for Ford v Ferrari. https://deadline.com/2019/10/oscars-ford-v-ferrari-christian-bale-matt-damon-compete-best-actor-1202765419/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 (edited) My take right now: 1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker 2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story 3. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory 4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman 6. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name 7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes 8. Matthew Rhys, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 9. Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari 10. Matt Damon, Ford v. Ferrari Leo and De Niro have their names going against them. Both give performances being called some of the best of their careers, yet they aren't in a position to win unlike their supporting co-stars. As Coolio said, those are the performances most likely to get snubbed (with or without co-stars with more hype). Amy Adams in Arrival is probably the prime example of this, though other recent ones include Emily Blunt, James Franco, and Steve Carell. It also doesn't help that Leo and De Niro are both previous winners with no narratives for a comeback (especially when De Niro's last nomination had that) or overdueness whereas everyone I just listed hasn't won. I can definitely see some freak scenario where neither gets in and two of 6-8 make it; the only reason I have them in currently is due to the strength of their films Edited October 22, 2019 by WrathOfHan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Pain and Glroy passed 1m box office gross domestically, anything above 2m should bode well for banderas nomination. The number of people who have seen it must at least big enough to generate positive buzz. Huppert get Oscar best actress nomination when elle barely hit 1m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Beezy Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 I’ll go with: Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory Robert DeNiro - The Irishman Adam Driver - Marriage Story Joaquin Phoenix - Joker Adam Sandler - Uncut Gems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudalb Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Nothing against Leo, and he was very good in OUATIH, but the role is not quite strong enough to guarantee an Oscar nomination. And he won his Best Actor Oscar not that long ago. I really think they will go instead for Bandeas and Pryce, actors who have long career of very good performance,but who have never won...and ,I might be wrong here..have not even been nominated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TMP Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Phoenix Driver Banderas DiCaprio Bale Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, TMP said: Phoenix Driver Banderas DiCaprio Bale This is pretty much it, really. Egerton is destined to be one of the "shock" snubs of the morning (though if "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" gets nominated he'll likely still attend the ceremony anyway as a performer). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
