Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns

[dallas]

$90M DOM

$75M OS

$35M China

 

$200M WW

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, dallas said:

$90M DOM

$75M OS

$35M China

 

$200M WW

The original had a 40/60 split excluding China and Russia. So in that case probably 90 dom 135 OS 35 China 260 WW

[dallas]

3 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

The original had a 40/60 split excluding China and Russia. So in that case probably 90 dom 135 OS 35 China 260 WW

Yeah I just wasn't too sure with the OS reception considering the meh reviews coming out of Europe. Though I suspect Asia and LATAM may yield better reception. 

[HummingLemon496]

4 minutes ago, dallas said:

Yeah I just wasn't too sure with the OS reception considering the meh reviews coming out of Europe. Though I suspect Asia and LATAM may yield better reception. 

Sure but I don't think the reception will make it that insanely domestic heavy. Like Shazam 2 with poor reception has almost an identical DOM/OS-China-Russia split as Shazam 1

[dallas]

Probably won't happen but I hope this outgrosses The Flash. 

[dallas]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Sure but I don't think the reception will make it that insanely domestic heavy. Like Shazam 2 with poor reception has almost an identical DOM/OS-China-Russia split as Shazam 1

True. I also suppose there is a chance audiences disagree with critics and enjoy the movie (though I admit that's a long shot). 

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, dallas said:

True. I also suppose there is a chance audiences disagree with critics and enjoy the movie (though I admit that's a long shot). 

This never happens with CBMs anymore 

[Issac Newton]

Seem like X (formerly Twitter) left for heaven.

[Nicson]

10 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Seem like X (formerly Twitter) left for heaven.

I will ONLY refer to it as Twitter

[TigerPaw]

Based on current run rate for China BO today (based on Maoyan), i think this will again beat estimates - ard at 18m Yuan at 7pm (GMT +8) and Maoyan is estimating 21.8m Yuan today. We have 3 hrs to go.

 

Let's see whether total estimates revise upwards tonight (again); showtimes tomorrow trending up. From 32.2% of all showtimes today to 34.4% tomorrow.

Edited December 21, 2023 by TigerPaw

[JimmyB]

8 hours ago, dallas said:

Which makes Blue Beetle's legs so remarkable. That film came out with nearly a 3.0x multiplier. That's pretty damn good for a modern CBM. 

Eh, Blue Beetle opened lower and released at a perfect time....end of summer, Labor Day weekend and Cinema Day to boost its run.  Even, after all that it did 2.9x its opening weekend a little better than Haunted Mansion's 2,81x multiplier. 

[dallas]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

Based on current run rate for China BO today (based on Maoyan), i think this will again beat estimates - ard at 18m Yuan at 7pm (GMT +8) and Maoyan is estimating 21.8m Yuan today. We have 3 hrs to go.

 

Let's see whether total estimates revise upwards tonight (again); showtimes tomorrow trending up. From 32.2% of all showtimes today to 34.4% tomorrow.

Yep. Will definitely best estimates. Looks like good WOM is at least taking effect somewhere.

[TigerPaw]

4 minutes ago, dallas said:

Yep. Will definitely best estimates. Looks like good WOM is at least taking effect somewhere.

At 820pm already at 21.8m Yuan for today, already hit estimates with more than an hour and half to go.

[HummingLemon496]

Review embargo lifting in an hour 

 

@WorkingonaName in still IN on your mini sub-$200M club. If I break it down I don't feasibly see how that happens but reality will find a way to subvert our expectations. 

[Krissykins]

7 hours ago, dallas said:

Probably won't happen but I hope this outgrosses The Flash. 

I think it will. Not based on anything, just a feeling. 

[HummingLemon496]

Flash looks decent after how The Marvels did

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

At 820pm already at 21.8m Yuan for today, already hit estimates with more than an hour and half to go.

It ended the day with 25M Yuan, a 25% drop from yesterday for a 60.5M Yuan two-day total.

[Mojoguy]

29 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Flash looks decent after how The Marvels did

People were laughing so hard at Flash.

 

Then Marvels was like hold my beer.

 

But Aquaman saying hold my beer right after Marvels.

[TigerPaw]

14 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

People were laughing so hard at Flash.

 

Then Marvels was like hold my beer.

 

But Aquaman saying hold my beer right after Marvels.

I genuinely don't think Aquaman will perform as badly as The Marvels.

 

Quality wise it is definitely better than The Marvels; but I think RT score will be lower noting Marvel films tend to have higher RT scores.. so let's see how much RT impacts box office.

Edited December 21, 2023 by TigerPaw

[Issac Newton]

China

 

Final Forecast up by ¥88M / $12.3M

 

¥352M / $49.3M