Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns

[TwoMisfits]

5 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

What do you think the excuse will be if this film has poor initial tracking? I'm guessing the most common one will be "don't worry, the movie will have positive word of mouth and leg out" (even though people said the exact same about The Flash, insisting that it was the "best CBM since TDK" and look at how that turned out LOL)

 

No excuse - it WILL have poor initial tracking, if one expects an opening near the 1st movie.  If one does not, it will probably just be within expectations tracking.

[Human]

12 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

What do you think the excuse will be if this film has poor initial tracking? I'm guessing the most common one will be "don't worry, the movie will have positive word of mouth and leg out" (even though people said the exact same about The Flash, insisting that it was the "best CBM since TDK" and look at how that turned out LOL)

I heard that about Blue Beetle way more.

[HummingLemon496]

11 hours ago, Human said:

I heard that about Blue Beetle way more.

Yes that is true. But at the very least it actually seemed to have decent legs and positive reception, unlike Flash

[HummingLemon496]

I cannot imagine the sheer shitstorm when this thing starts presale tracking (probably like late-ish November, maybe early December)

[Bob Train]

8 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I cannot imagine the sheer shitstorm when this thing starts presale tracking (probably like late-ish November, maybe early December)

True, although it's opening on a Wednesday. IDK if it will have Tuesday previews.

[HummingLemon496]

5 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

True, although it's opening on a Wednesday. IDK if it will have Tuesday previews.

Wednesday openings are always so annoying to track. Why not just open this on Dec 15? Like The Last Jedi did on the same calendar 

[Bob Train]

36 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Wednesday openings are always so annoying to track. Why not just open this on Dec 15? Like The Last Jedi did on the same calendar 

TLJ opening on Dec 15 was a mistake. I don't know why they didn't open it a week later, so that 2nd weekend falls into the Christmas Corridor. However, they fixed their mistake with TROS, which is why that movie had a much better 2nd weekend drop and slightly better multiplier.

[HummingLemon496]

Wait till we get the "Charlie Jatinder - Sub $400m WW is possible for Aquaman 2" on like Dec 24 or something idk

[HummingLemon496]

I'm waiting for Blue Beetle's run to officially end so I can extrapolate the exact number Aquaman 2 needs to go below for a specific petty milestone I'm thinking about 😉🤭

Edited October 14, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Human]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

TLJ opening on Dec 15 was a mistake. I don't know why they didn't open it a week later, so that 2nd weekend falls into the Christmas Corridor. However, they fixed their mistake with TROS, which is why that movie had a much better 2nd weekend drop and slightly better multiplier.

Because they were convinced TLJ would be seen as an all-time great movie and have wonderful legs, so they wanted to help its legs.  For the Force Awakens so many people I know were just asking questions about it all the time.  For The Last Jedi nobody was talking about it.  

[HummingLemon496]

As soon as presale tracking starts we're gonna see an end to these "iF aQuAmAn 2 mAkEs a biLliOn wIlL tHeY mAkE aN aQuAmAn 3?" posts or people just saying "I'm gonna laugh my ass off if this hits a billion like the first"

Edited October 20, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Dominic Draper]

34 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

As soon as presale tracking starts we're gonna see an end to these "iF aQuAmAn 2 mAkEs a biLliOn wIlL tHeY mAkE aN aQuAmAn 3?" posts or people just saying "I'm gonna laugh my ass off if this hits a billion like the first"

It's Christmas season.  Opening weekend doesn't determine this movies success. The first only made $67M OW.

 

Unless this is tracking for like sub $20M or some disaster like that.

[Arlborn]

Given the troubled production history, I don’t think this gets a sequel even if it makes 1 billion dollars, everyone involved in it just seems sick and tired of it all.

 

 

In more normal times though this would be getting a sequel even if it “only” made around 600-700M I think.

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by Arlborn

[SpiderByte]

I'm optimistic about this personally, even with the troubled production. First Class had tons of problems bts and it's my favorite X-Men movie 

[HummingLemon496]

14 hours ago, Dominic Draper said:

It's Christmas season.  Opening weekend doesn't determine this movies success. The first only made $67M OW.

 

Unless this is tracking for like sub $20M or some disaster like that.

Yeah that's true, even if it is tracking we're still gonna see those smug "I'm gonna laugh my ass off if his hits a billion" comments. Like when The Flash was tracking for $75M some people said a billion was still possible because word of mouth would carry and that it was the "best CBM since TDK" like come on lmao. Even when Blue Beetle was tracking slightly higher than Shazam 2, r/boxoffice declared that it was a break-out hit and that would have legs like Elemental and outgross The Flash worldwide, none of which ended up happening.

 

So it basically looks like the cycle is

1. DC film tracks poorly in opening weekend

2. "Lol, opening weekend means nothing. Word of mouth will save it"

3. It ends up bombing anyway

 

 

 

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

The literal millisecond Box Office Pro drops their first long range projections, there will be no shot of Oppenheimer being kicked out of the top 3 

Edited October 21, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Mojoguy]

2 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

The literal millisecond Box Office Pro drops their first long range projections, any shot of this movie kicking Oppenheimer out of the top 3 is gonna get nuked to complete smithereens. 

The top 3 of this year is set. Absolutely nothing is coming close . 

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, Mojoguy said:

The top 3 of this year is set. Absolutely nothing is coming close . 

Yes even if something somehow does it won't be a sequel. No sequels in the top 3! That's really what I care about

[Arlborn]

13 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

The top 3 of this year is set. Absolutely nothing is coming close . 

Worldwide? Agreed, although Aquaman might get slightly close(top 5) if it's well received. Domestically? Ehhh, I might be crazy but I think Wonka has a chance.

[MovieMan89]

Tracking is probably useless here. It’s opening on the wed before Xmas, too many variables there to know everything from tracking.