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VenomXXR

The Lion King (2019) over Titanic WW — CLUB IS CLOSED!

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1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

ocean biology GIF

 

Mayyybbeeee we’re not totally dead just yet...

Feel like 2B is still likely the max. Without 3d expansion club has a chance.

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So hard to reach $2B without a huge breakout in China. 

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1 hour ago, Jiffy said:

So hard to reach $2B without a huge breakout in China. 

Agreed. Sub-200 in China and I doubt this is beating Jurassic World WW. 

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Sadly , I also don’t see how this club succeeds. But don’t worry , Venom. As one of the crews on board this club ( and I believe I’m not the only one ) , I will go down with this club together with you and fellow believers.

 

loveit GIF

 

screaming season 10 GIF

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Claudio said:

Sadly , I also don’t see how this club succeeds. But don’t worry , Venom. As one of the crews on board this club ( and I believe I’m not the only one ) , I will go down with this club together with you and fellow believers.

 

loveit GIF

 

screaming season 10 GIF

 

 

 

you me flirting GIF by Jeopardy!

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Based on current openings everywhere, and audience reception

 

2.2B = 0.01%

2.1B = 0.1%

2.0B = 1%

1.9B = 5%

1.8B = 10% (my final prediction, but I've always been optimistic for it)

1.7B = 25%

1.6B = 50%

1.5B = 75%

1.4B = 90%

1.3B = 95%

1.2B = 99%

1.1B = 99.9%

 

I'd consider this club dead especially with potential A- CinemaScore so legs might not be as good as we hoped. In terms of chances, it's basically the same as baumer's club currently.

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I forget if I've already voted, but OUT. As big as it's going to be overseas, it would have to be too big for this to happen. Even if it performed like Endgame domestically, I still don't think it will do enough overseas to make it over Titanic's total.

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China had to get on board big time (2B Yuan +) for this to have a chance. But there its having “normal” 700-750m run. Not enough to keep this in play. Better target is Jurassic World.

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7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

China had to get on board big time (2B Yuan +) for this to have a chance. But there its having “normal” 700-750m run. Not enough to keep this in play. Better target is Jurassic World.

 

My model for this club needed $275m from China. This was my moon shot club. Either way, TLK is going to do huge numbers and I'm happy for that.

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6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

My model for this club needed $275m from China. This was my moon shot club. Either way, TLK is going to do huge numbers and I'm happy for that.

Can you share your model. What are your expectations from other major markets. So you were expecting 1.9B minus china. That is also not likely despite good country reports.

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Posted this in the main TLK thread, but apparently it had a fantastic opening day DOM

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Terraforce said:

Posted this in the main TLK thread, but apparently it had a fantastic opening day DOM

 

 

 

It needs like 240+ DOM opening at a minimum with the China performance, so it's basically impossible now

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14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can you share your model. What are your expectations from other major markets. So you were expecting 1.9B minus china. That is also not likely despite good country reports.

 

Domestic -- $720 million 
China -- $275 million

United Kingdom -- $120 million 

Japan -- $100 million

France -- $80 million 

Germany -- $70 million 

Mexico -- $60 million 

Brazil -- $55 million 

South Korea -- $50 million 

Australia - $45 million 
Russia -- $40 million 
India -- $40 million 
Italy -- $35 million 
Spain -- $35 million 

14 Market Total -- $1.745 billion 

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