Weekend Thread (3/1/2019 - 3/3/2019) - Weekend Estimates - Page 19.

[Neucentro]

Quote

Focus Features’ Greta is seeing $2.5M today and $5.3M over three days. Not spectacular. Universal/Participant Media/DreamWorks’ Green Book we hear is doing around $5M at 2,641 locations (up from 1,253) for the weekend post its Oscar Best Picture win, +138% in weekend 16. That number will put the Peter Farrelly-directed drama at $76.2M.

 

$2.5m Friday for Greta is a good start and should guarantee at least a $6m OW if true.

[SLAM!]

Just now, Neucentro said:

 

$2.5m Friday for Greta is a good start and should guarantee at least a $6m OW if true.

 

I really do think Focus Features was smart to find an opening in the schedule and market the film the way they did. They no doubt placed the trailer in front of the Oscar films for people who were catching up on the Best Picture nominees. So kudos to them!

[efialtes76]

10 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

A 58% drop for Dragon 3...what the...what?

Drugs are very bad... 

[chuck0]

9 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I hope Deadline is drunk. Those numbers would be trash.

 

As always, to be taken with a grain of salt, but google trends search traffic might hint at quite a bit of front loading for HTTYD?

 

 

Last day in the graph is wednesday. First big drop for alita is also nicely visible. CM is really starting to pick up.

Edited March 1, 2019 by chuck0

[a2k]

Was expecting 50% drop or 27.5 for HTTYD3 being a tri-quel. Under-25 would be disappointing. Nevertheless, it over-performed over the ow and has a prod budget of 129 (smallest of the 3) so it's all good.

 

Deadline under-estimated Alita last weekend (11.4 early Fri projection vs 12.34 actual). Same % error would swing 6.4 to 6.9 this weekend. Not that they are destined to have that inaccuracy this weekend but 6.75 odd (-45%) is still possible. Doesn't change much when it comes to it's final Dom and is still targeting 85 imo.

[YM!]

In hindsight not surprised at Dragon 3 being a bit frontloaded but of course right after I gain hope for Dragon 3 after suffering from Lego 2, the universe drops this on me.

[Frozen]

17 minutes ago, RichWS said:

 

https://deadline.com/2019/03/madea-famliy-funeral-how-to-train-your-dragon-weekend-box-office-1202567796/

If Alita makes $6 million this weekend, the total is $71 million. 

[efialtes76]

Lego, Lego Batman and Petter Rabbit increased 215%+ on Friday, 120%-135% on Saturday, and dropped less than 35% on Sunday. 

Even with $6M on Friday. 

Saturday-$13. 2M(+120%) 

Sunday-$8.8M(-33%) 

$28M for HTTYD3. 

[DAJK]

FUCK if Dragon drops that hard this weekend. fuck fuck FUCK the moviegoing public  

 

anyways, bye (for a while) BOT

[Mulder]

Just now, DAJK said:

FUCK if Dragon drops that hard this weekend. fuck fuck FUCK the moviegoing public  

 

anyways, bye (for a while) BOT

😢

[Nova]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

FUCK if Dragon drops that hard this weekend. fuck fuck FUCK the moviegoing public  

 

anyways, bye (for a while) BOT

Wait. Where you going?? 

[Mulder]

Also I feel like that HTTYD3 number will rise, still too early imo to do what's overall a kids movie.

[John Marston]

That would be an absolute horrendous drop for Dragon 3 especially since this isn’t summer and business should be focused on the weekends. That drop shows Bad Wom. Which is confusing 

[RealLyre]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

That would be an absolute horrendous drop for Dragon 3 especially since this isn’t summer and business should be focused on the weekends. That drop shows Bad Wom. Which is confusing 

more like the opening weekend was very front-loaded cus this is a sequel?

 

 

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

more like the opening weekend was very front-loaded cus this is a sequel?

 

 

 

 

Frintloaded for an animated film should still equal a 40% range type drop. Not nearly 60%. And this ain’t summer where. It is burning off lots of business during weekdays 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

more like the opening weekend was very front-loaded cus this is a sequel?

 

 

Logic is not allowed on this forum and is a bannable offense 

[chuck0]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Frintloaded for an animated film should still equal a 40% range type drop. Not nearly 60%. And this ain’t summer where. It is burning off lots of business during weekdays 

I guess this would further confirm the notion that the BO climate is still crap. 😕  Still have to see the movie, but yeah, WoM certainly should not be toxic...

 

 

[Mulder]

Can we maybe talk about how HTTYD3's doing when we have later in the day numbers as well as Saturday and Sunday numbers? Still feels a bit early tbh.

[RealLyre]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Frintloaded for an animated film should still equal a 40% range type drop. Not nearly 60%. And this ain’t summer where. It is burning off lots of business during weekdays 

Incredibles 2, an animated family sequel got a 56% 2nd weekend drop, did that also have bad WoM?

 

and i think HTTYD3 2nd weekend drop will probably be closer to 50% than 60% with the actuals

 

 

[John Marston]

Just now, RealLyre said:

Incredibles 2, an animated family sequel got a 56% 2nd weekend drop, did that also have bad WoM?

 

and i think HTTYD3 2nd weekend drop will probably be closer to 50% than 60% with the actuals

 

 

Incredibles 2 was summer and had a 100 m opener (JUrassic World 2) second weekend