CAPTAIN MARVEL WEEKEND THREAD l $153M DOM (3rd-biggest March opening), $455M WW (6th biggest WW opening) l Other weekend #s: Dragon 14.7, Madea 12, Lego 3.8, Alita 3.2

[IronJimbo]

alita's estimate just went up and CM's down?

 

#alitachallenge???

[Zakiyyah6]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

alita's estimate just went up and CM's down?

 

#alitachallenge???

3.8mil to 150mil, yep Alita is really killing a movie that it going to outgross it in two days. 

[RealLyre]

5 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Even if it goes under 150mil and that's a big if, I don't see why that would be an issue? Guardians of the Galaxy 2 opened with less than 150mil and nobody thought that opening was awful. Anything over 120mil is a great opening weekend for the film. It all depends on the Saturday honestly. Maybe it will have a great Saturday? We have no idea right now.

not saying it's awful, it's a fantastic opening for a new character. I just hope it opens higher than 150M, cus if it dips below 150M that would confirm that it is indeed more frontloaded than usual MCU solos and would 100% kill 400M DOM.

Edited March 9, 2019 by RealLyre
.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

3.8mil to 150mil, yep Alita is really killing a movie that it going to outgross it in two days. 

Thanks for giving me the number breakdown Zaki, really helpful.

[charlie Jatinder]

IMO it will do around $375-400mn in USA. China will reach $175mn (hopefully).

 

The rest of world seems like $550mn peak.

 

That give $1.1 Billion worldwide.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

IMO it will do around $375-400mn in USA. China will reach $175mn (hopefully).

 

The rest of world seems like $550mn peak.

 

That give $1.1 Billion worldwide.

hmpff! My $1.1b prediction from a few months back is Charlie approved.

[terrestrial]

Screen International‏Verified account @Screendaily 23s24 seconds ago

More

Western Sweden launches 30% rebate for international film and TV productions http://bit.ly/2tWQcMI 

[XO21]

Multi previews-OD:

Infinity War 2.727

Catching Fire 2.810

BvS 2.944

CM 2.946

Black Panther 3.014

Civil War 3.020

SS 3.166

Homecoming 3.297

 

Yep we need the Saturday #s. 

 

Edited March 9, 2019 by XO21

[Brinatico]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

IMO it will do around $375-400mn in USA. China will reach $175mn (hopefully).

 

The rest of world seems like $550mn peak.

 

That give $1.1 Billion worldwide.

Maybe pass the 1B,

But taking out the core fans, this movie is just a common one (no to say a mediocre).

I dont know if was a good idea releasing before EG less than 2 months. Could bleed it.

[TalismanRing]

3 hours ago, MagnarTheGreat said:

 

Well, it's one days info.

 

Here's what ended up various end-of-release-year MPAA reports. (% may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding)

 

2017 MPAA Report	Male %	Female %
Star Wars: The Last Jedi	60%	41%
Beauty and the Beast	36%	64%
Wonder Woman	48%	52%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	56%	44%
Spider-Man: Homecoming	59%	41%
Survey Average	51%	49%
2016 MPAA Report	Male %	Female %
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	59%	41%
Finding Dory	45%	55%
Captain America: Civil War	59%	41%
The Secret Life of Pets	46%	54%
The Jungle Book	48%	52%
Survey Average	51%	50%
2015 MPAA Report	Male %	Female %
Star Wars: The Force Awakens	58%	42%
Jurassic World	55%	45%
Avengers: Age of Ultron	58%	42%
Inside Out	46%	54%
Furious 7	56%	44%
Survey Average	50%	50%

 

SOURCES:

2017 report

2016 report

2015 report

I used think  these roundup were for the entire run and then I actually read the intro to the chart

 

The tracking by Comscore for gender and ethnicity attendance is only for the first 2 weeks of release.  Women tend to plan earlier but also come later so these could be off by a few % points.

[RealLyre]

9 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

IMO it will do around $375-400mn in USA

Guardians 2 flashbacks

 

 

CM can still do a billion since OS is way stronger

[Assassin]

8 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

IMO it will do around $375-400mn in USA.

2.3-2.5x mutiple (going be 160M opening)? On the lower end, that would be almost Civil War type legs, which ain't great.

[TalismanRing]

8 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Screen International‏Verified account @Screendaily 23s24 seconds ago

More

Western Sweden launches 30% rebate for international film and TV productions http://bit.ly/2tWQcMI 

Oooh interesting - we might get some different vistas and locations in movies (if they all don't try and pretend they're elsewhere)

[Zakiyyah6]

2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

not saying it's awful, it's a fantastic opening for a new character. I just hope it opens higher than 150M, cus if it dips below 150M that would confirm that it is more frontloaded than usual MCU solo and would 100% kill 400M DOM.

I gotcha. I expect good legs but nothing Black Panther level. Just not seeing that sort of reaction towards the film so far. I could be wrong of course. 

[Brinatico]

But the way those 175M China are in trouble. 

OW downgrade from 110-120 to maybe 90M.

[Brainbug]

Feels good to have big numbers again.

 

#feelsgoodman

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Assassin said:

2.3-2.5x mutiple (going be 160M opening)? On the lower end, that would be almost Civil War type legs, which ain't great.

well i wouldnt believe anything at this point this is just a guess which i doubt that will happen can hit easy 400 mill dom in my opion we wont know for sure till the next week start then we can say if the legs will be closer to 2.5 or 3

[XO21]

Can't wait for 900m worldwide to be called an underperformance. 

[terrestrial]

2 hours ago, fmpro said:

Nothing has changed. 100 mill +/- 3mill

 

3 minutes ago, Brinatico said:

But the way those 175M China are in trouble. 

OW downgrade from 110-120 to maybe 90M.

fmpro wrote that 2 hours ago, so why write this?

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Brinatico said:

But the way those 175M China are in trouble. 

OW downgrade from 110-120 to maybe 90M.

 

it can still hit 100 ow  its still alive also noone expected to go 110-10 this was just a guess most people who knew said around 100-105 which can still happen its not locked though