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Eric Atreides

CAPTAIN MARVEL WEEKEND THREAD l $153M DOM (3rd-biggest March opening), $455M WW (6th biggest WW opening) l Other weekend #s: Dragon 14.7, Madea 12, Lego 3.8, Alita 3.2

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5 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

CAPTAIN MARVEL $127M Overseas Total through Friday (Includes $34.3M Opening Day In China -- the 2nd Highest In MCU History Behind AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR)

for comparison BP made 81.5M overseas through Friday (though without China)

 

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Just now, TMP said:

Over/Under $400m dom?

I think it's hard to predict the legs for this based on OW numbers. Hell I don't even know if I want to predict its legs based on its second weekend drop since we've seen CBM have big second weekend drops and then recover. Based on typical MCU legs though I would say somewhere between $385M-$400M is possible for sure. But this has very little competition in its way and thus it could do way more than that. 

 

*I don't think $400M is guaranteed though. 

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So we really seem to be headed towards a 400-450m WW opening 4 day for CM?  If it's around 100m in China, 150m US, and at least another 150m everywhere else.  This seems to be a really strong start.  But is the expectation that this is still very frontloaded?  Seems that the movie would end up with a WW total right around Aquaman (1.14bn) or Civil War.  I honestly thought this movie was heading towards something around Thor 3 numbers, but it looks like this is going to blow way past that.

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2 minutes ago, TMP said:

Over/Under $400m dom?

At $150M, it would need a 2.67x multiplier to get there, so I would say yes. I'm betting on a multiplier around 2.7-2.8, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was slightly lower than that.

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Just now, RealLyre said:

for comparison BP made 81.5M overseas through Friday (though without China)

 

Yeah but BP opened almost all markets mid-week.

Friday of BP was $36mn, iirc, while its $50mn for CM.

BP did another $88mn on Saturday and Sunday, CM shall do $125mn Approx.

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1 minute ago, Nova said:

I think it's hard to predict the legs for this based on OW numbers. Hell I don't even know if I want to predict its legs based on its second weekend drop since we've seen CBM have big second weekend drops and then recover. Based on typical MCU legs though I would say somewhere between $385M-$400M is possible for sure. But this has very little competition in its way and thus it could do way more than that. 

 

*I don't think $400M is guaranteed though. 

Seems about right. Lack of competition and being the only blockbuster until Dumbo should help. I know Us comes sooner but that's a different audience.

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12 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

not enough to compare

I remember very heated discussions before Avengers 1 like ~ if there will be any chance to get IM, IHulk, Thor, and CA 1 under one umbrella (here a saying, I hope it makes sense).

 

The most doubted it, based on them being so different in tone, style and so on

 

I think it's fair to compare. Favreau doesn't really have a style, he's got a lot of range but not a specific style (which isn't a bad thing necessarily). It's not just Marvel (although mostly) but a lot of blockbusters where you got many directors jumping from indie films to blockbusters and they haven't had the time to establish their style, and it's as if their voice is lost in there. That's what I feel.

 

The DC films between Nolan, Snyder, Ayer (even if SS blows), Jenkins (even though she only has one film under her belt prior to WW), Wan (and probably Sandberg) feel more filmmaker driven to me and that's a big difference between the two models. WB has always been filmmaker driven even if they've fucked up a few times and you can feel it. Anyway. 

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1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah but BP opened almost all markets mid-week.

Friday of BP was $36mn, iirc, while its $50mn for CM.

BP did another $88mn on Saturday and Sunday, CM shall do $125mn Approx.

125M for CM on Sat/Sun Overseas including China? or without

 

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4 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

What record did it break?

I like Scott Mendelson but that's a poor article, you can't put "opens to record number" in the headline and then not explain it in the article.

 

I don't know what record its supposedly broken. Hasn't broken record for female led film, or March film, I am not sure what record its broken. Female led superhero film I guess? But thats not really a legit record.

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1 minute ago, TimmyRiggins said:

I think it's fair to compare. Favreau doesn't really have a style, he's got a lot of range but not a specific style (which isn't a bad thing necessarily). It's not just Marvel (although mostly) but a lot of blockbusters where you got many directors jumping from indie films to blockbusters and they haven't had the time to establish their style, and it's as if their voice is lost in there. That's what I feel.

 

The DC films between Nolan, Snyder, Ayer (even if SS blows), Jenkins (even though she only has one film under her belt prior to WW), Wan (and probably Sandberg) feel more filmmaker driven to me and that's a big difference between the two models. WB has always been filmmaker driven even if they've fucked up a few times and you can feel it. Anyway. 

Caps has arguably more style than any other MCU and feels very much like a Johnston film. Guardians Vol. 2 stands apart as well. And, because his style is his writing, Whedon's work on Avengers and especially Ultron.

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