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Eric Atreides

CAPTAIN MARVEL WEEKEND THREAD l $153M DOM (3rd-biggest March opening), $455M WW (6th biggest WW opening) l Other weekend #s: Dragon 14.7, Madea 12, Lego 3.8, Alita 3.2

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20 minutes ago, Nova said:

Why would it have that big of a drop during a non summer weekend? BvS dropped 69% so I don't see why CM would come within 4% of that movie's second weekend drop 

And BvS had an eastern holiday inflated weekend right ?

 

12 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

Hunger Games dropped 62%, and that was a movie people actually liked (81% audience score)...

YA was not a particularly leggy run and the comscore is really good on CM:

Even though Captain Marvel launched on International Women’s Day yesterday, she continues to remain male heavy, 61% to 39% on PostTrak. Females over 25 remain the third best draw at 22% behind M25+ (33%), and Men under 25 (25%). And at 4 stars, an ‘A’ CinemaScore, and an 86% from females and 80% from males, e

 

 

I would assume you are only trolling but by now I am not sure if you do not somewhat believe (at least emotionally) some of the stuff you say, really taking obviously hit job RT score over post-track cinemascore .

Edited by Barnack
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1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

To be fair spring break this week could lead to burning off more demand during the week.

A 65% weekend drop would be bad and the worst drop for a Marvel Studios movie to date. I don't see that happening even with Spring break helping the weekdays. I do now concede that 60% could happen.

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1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Dragon 3 and Lego 2 should see some really healthy weekdays then as well.

Lego2 will leg it to 110 after all (3.2x+). Should get to 200 ww now. Despite it's massive under-performance a combo of these 3 things always bodes well for profitability, 

(1) Dom > prod budget

(2) Dom >50% of WW

(3) prod budget similar to marketing budget (cause if prod budget is tiny compared to marketing like with some horror films that using it as a benchmark is not sensible).

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2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

A 65% weekend drop would be bad and the worst drop for a Marvel Studios movie to date. I don't see that happening even with Spring break helping the weekdays. I do now concede that 60% could happen.

65% would be bad and while it's never happened, there's a first time for everything.

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5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

And BvS had an eastern holiday inflated weekend right ?

 

YA was not a particularly leggy run and the comscore is really good on CM:

Even though Captain Marvel launched on International Women’s Day yesterday, she continues to remain male heavy, 61% to 39% on PostTrak. Females over 25 remain the third best draw at 22% behind M25+ (33%), and Men under 25 (25%). And at 4 stars, an ‘A’ CinemaScore, and an 86% from females and 80% from males, e

 

 

I would assume you are only trolling but by now I am not sure if you do not somewhat believe (at least emotionally) some of the stuff you say.

Not that I know what the 2nd weekend drop will be. But I think Napoleon, Nova and Zak’s guesses are all valid. They are all grounded in historical data for the month of March and the history of certain brands (Marvel superhero films tend to drop in the 50-55 range), so why the snark? You are consistently one of the more knowledgeable posters on this board, so I am surprised at your response with no historical data to bolster your point. 

 

Anyways, interested to see how weekend plays out as well as the remainder of the week. Good day!

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A 65% drop would indicate really bad WOM, thats just too high of a drop to be only about fan-frontloading. I cant see that happening since audience reception seems to be good.

 

However as Homecoming and Deadpool 2 teached us (i remember @Nova's meltdowns vividly), even a 55-60% drop on the 2nd weekend isnt the end of the world. Late legs can always stabilize.

 

But like i said, 65% is near BvS-territory and that would be very bad.

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Guardians 2, the Marvel movie this is gonna open closest to, dropped 55% - technically in the summer, but weekdays in early May are still on March level. I'd expect the same or slightly harsher drop here. 55-59%. 

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4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

A 65% drop would indicate really bad WOM, thats just too high of a drop to be only about fan-frontloading. I cant see that happening since audience reception seems to be good.

 

However as Homecoming and Deadpool 2 teached us (i remember @Nova's meltdowns vividly), even a 55-60% drop on the 2nd weekend isnt the end of the world. Late legs can always stabilize.

 

But like i said, 65% is near BvS-territory and that would be very bad.

Deadpool 2 had a -65.4% drop but I mostly pin that on the fact that Solo came out on its second weekend in theaters. WOM thankfully allowed it to stabilize after that.

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8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

A 65% drop would indicate really bad WOM, thats just too high of a drop to be only about fan-frontloading. I cant see that happening since audience reception seems to be good.

 

However as Homecoming and Deadpool 2 teached us (i remember @Nova's meltdowns vividly), even a 55-60% drop on the 2nd weekend isnt the end of the world. Late legs can always stabilize.

 

But like i said, 65% is near BvS-territory and that would be very bad.

Thanks for bringing back such horrid memories :circles::circles: Also to be fair Homecoming opened in the summer and both Homecoming and DP2 did have big films that opened the following weekend. Captain Marvel doesnt have any competition. 

 

However, A 65% drop is certainly possibly for Captain Marvel and even if it dropped that much, I would still wait and see what kind of legs it could develop. I just personally don't see that happening BUT with how big these CBM are opening now a days, it's certainly possible that second weekends may start seeing bigger than usual drops with stabilization afterwards (which is what I personally believe happened with DP2) because a lot of demand is burnt up in the OW with theaters giving these movies a shit ton of screens and the movies themselves playing in 4,000+ theaters. 

Edited by Nova
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1 minute ago, Jake Gittes said:

Guardians 2, the Marvel movie this is gonna open closest to, dropped 55% - technically in the summer, but weekdays in early May are still on March level. I'd expect the same or slightly harsher drop here. 55-59%. 

Yeah, I don't know about everyone else but I don't consider May weekdays to be summer weekdays. It baffles me that May is considered a summer month in movie circles. Summer for me is June, July, August.

 

Anyway, I also agree with your suggested drop of 55%. That seems about right. We'll see on Wednesday/Thursday.

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3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Yeah, I don't know about everyone else but I don't consider May weekdays to be summer weekdays. It baffles me that May is considered a summer month in movie circles. Summer for me is June, July, August.

 

Anyway, I also agree with your suggested drop of 55%. That seems about right. We'll see on Wednesday/Thursday.

What's typically understood as "summer weekdays" basically only lasts from mid-June till mid-August.

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2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

It was looking like 63-65mil and it ended up doing a still great 61mil so lets see if that 52-54mil range sticks. A part of me wouldn't be surprised to see 49-50mil when all is said and done. 

Really depends on word of mouth. I'm iffy on that front, given the surprising sub-3.0 previews to OD multiplier. That took me aback. Based on the $20.7M previews I was anticipating at least a $64.1M OD (3.1x).

Edited by JB33
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7 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

A 65% drop would indicate really bad WOM, thats just too high of a drop to be only about fan-frontloading. I cant see that happening since audience reception seems to be good.

 

However as Homecoming and Deadpool 2 teached us (i remember @Nova's meltdowns vividly), even a 55-60% drop on the 2nd weekend isnt the end of the world. Late legs can always stabilize.

 

But like i said, 65% is near BvS-territory and that would be very bad.

:lol:

 

Homecoming was July so 2nd weekend drop of 62-63% is not as horrific as it sounds. Minions also dropped 57% on it's way to 2.9x (bad for animation but that besides the point) in July. Homecoming ended up close to that multi with 2.86x.

 

DP2 did surprise in the 2nd weekend as it had holiday Monday bolstering 2nd Sunday a lot (-3%) and yet the FSS drop was 65%. It ended up with only 2.54x multi (excluding the re-release). As such not far from 2.74x of DP1 but that had the opposite scenario where 1st Sunday was bolstered (-0%) by holiday Monday thus impacting multiplier negatively.

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24 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

To be fair spring break this week could lead to burning off more demand during the week.

Does it really affect it that much that it causes drops in the 60s? In terms of similar films, Tomb Raider dropped 57% for its second weekend, Logan 57%, Kong: Skull Island 54%. Only recent exception is Pacific Rim 2, but that probably has more to do with the fact Ready Player One was coming out a week later, and the movie sucked.

 

I'm personally predicting a drop around 56-58%

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