The Summer Game | ZeeSoh has taken the lead with only the top 15 to reveal.... bring it on Chas!

[Wrath]

17 hours ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

This will be my first time playing any sort of game. When and where do we put our predictions? 

Welcome! The games are a lot of fun (for the right sort of personality) so I hope you're able to get an entry in before the deadline tonight (just before midnight on Thursday, I'm not entirely sure which timezone. US Pacific, maybe?) in... 14 hours, perhaps.

 

The biggest source of points are the preseason lists which you do here:

 

Just copy paste the blank one in the first post for the formatting, then fill it in as best you can. Folks will be posting new entries and editing their numbers until late tonight. The numbers can seem dauntingly large, but you'd be surprised at how close the results can be. A couple years ago, they gave people who helped with the scoring +1 bonus point (out of like 3+ million) and at one point late in the final scoring one of the +1 points actually served as a tie-breaker.

 

The rest of the game are the weekly questions, the Spur of the Moment (SotM's), and Question of the week. Each individual set of questions isn't worth a ton of points, but they add up over the course of the game. They're in the same area as the Preseason Prediction Thread.

 

Its kind fun to see how different people are particularly good or bad at different things. Historically, I've done pretty well on the top 15 Domestic chart and the SotM's, but I'm absolute trash at the weekly questions. I'm somehow better at predicting how movies will do ~3 months before they open than I am at predicting it the week they open. I tried just flat-out copying people who were better at it than me, but each week I seemed to randomly pick the person who was about to have a terrible week so even that didn't work. Ah well.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

2 minutes ago, Wrath said:

Welcome! The games are a lot of fun (for the right sort of personality) so I hope you're able to get an entry in before the deadline tonight (just before midnight on Thursday, I'm not entirely sure which timezone. US Pacific, maybe?) in... 14 hours, perhaps.

 

The biggest source of points are the preseason lists which you do here:

 

Just copy paste the blank one in the first post for the formatting, then fill it in as best you can. Folks will be posting new entries and editing their numbers until late tonight. The numbers can seem dauntingly large, but you'd be surprised at how close the results can be. A couple years ago, they gave people who helped with the scoring +1 bonus point (out of like 3+ million) and at one point late in the final scoring one of the +1 points actually served as a tie-breaker.

 

The rest of the game are the weekly questions, the Spur of the Moment (SotM's), and Question of the week. Each individual set of questions isn't worth a ton of points, but they add up over the course of the game. They're in the same area as the Preseason Prediction Thread.

 

Its kind fun to see how different people are particularly good or bad at different things. Historically, I've done pretty well on the top 15 Domestic chart and the SotM's, but I'm absolute trash at the weekly questions. I'm somehow better at predicting how movies will do ~3 months before they open than I am at predicting it the week they open. I tried just flat-out copying people who were better at it than me, but each week I seemed to randomly pick the person who was about to have a terrible week so even that didn't work. Ah well.

Thank you! I am looking forward to it! Should be fun. Thanks again for taking the time to welcome me and to advise me on how to get started. 

[Wrath]

29 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Thank you! I am looking forward to it! Should be fun. Thanks again for taking the time to welcome me and to advise me on how to get started. 

Of course! As a final word of advice, feel free to look at what other people have posted (but remember they'll probably edit before the deadline), and beware that it may end up taking longer than you expect to get things sorted out (especially since its your first time). I usually spend at least a few hours working on it, though different people approach it in different ways.

 

Also, its definitely something you get a feel for as time goes on. The first time I entered, I did pretty well on the weekly stuff and was clinging to a spot in the top 10 before they did the final scoring on the pre-season stuff. I crashed and burned, and think I ended up in like 23rd. But then the next time I understood it all a bit better and came in like 8th or something, and then a year or so after that I finally won one. Have fun, don't get discouraged, and bear in mind that if anyone tells you a particular chunk of points doesn't really matter that they're probably trolling you.

Edited April 25, 2019 by Wrath

[Ms Lady Hawk]

3 minutes ago, Wrath said:

Of course! As a final word of advice, feel free to look at what other people have posted (but remember they'll probably edit before the deadline), and beware that it may end up taking longer than you expect to get things sorted out (especially since its your first time). I usually spend at least a few hours working on it, though different people approach it in different ways.

 

Also, its definitely something you get a feel for as time goes on. The first time I entered, I did pretty well on the weekly stuff and was clinging to a spot in the top 10 before they did the final scoring on the pre-season stuff. I crashed and burned, and think I ended up in like 23rd. But then the next time I understood it all a bit better and came in like 8th or something, and then a year or so after that I finally won one. Have fun, don't get discouraged, and bear in mind that if anyone tells you a particular chunk of points doesn't really matter that they're probably trolling you.

Oh, I really appreciate that. I am competitive, but will take this as a learning experience. By the time a derby roles around again, I will be more solid. I did complete my predictions last night. It took me a while. Overall, I think I may be on the high side of things. We’ll see though. Lol. 

 

But hey, I really really do appreciate the words of advice and the guidance. You’re awesome! 👍

[kayumanggi]

Hey, how much time is left? I am not done. TT

[chasmmi]

@baumer @Tele Dondarrion @grim22 @Water Bottle @andy126 @WrathOfHan @SchumacherFTW @narniadis  @Chewy  @MrPink  @4815162342 @Sheikh @YourMother the Edgelord  @CoolEric258  @kayumanggi  @MovieMan89  @Spaghetti  @darkelf @Kalo  @Filmovie  @Jake Gittes  @The Dark Alfred  @24Lost  @Tower  @ZeeSoh  @bcf26  @Tyler Durden  @aabattery  @Dipper  @Blankments  @Fancyarcher   @TalismanRing   @Mattrek  @Sam  @Premium George  @grey ghost  @That One Guy  @jj99  @BobDole  @Infernus  @Cmasterclay  @captainwondyful  @Captain Craig   @Deja23   @Slambros   @Empire   @druv10   @AndyLL  @Darth Lehnsherr  @ChipMunky  @Rolling Thunder  @The Fast and the Furiosa  @8wombi7  @Keanu  @JMorphin  @GambitPool  @feasby007  @Matthew  @AhmiiZafii @POTUS 2020  @Exxdee  @Ms Lady Hawk  @Bates  @Nicholas  @Deep Wang  @terrestrial  @Fish&chips   @Olive  @Porthos  @DeeCee  @MCKillswitch123 

 

I know some of the above have already entered / declared non-entry, but it is my best source of random potential entrants. 

 

Here is the deal:

 

Weekly question and QOTW threads will both close at a normal (ish time) about 8 hours after this post. (9pm Friday Korean Time)

 

The main preseason and SOTMs I will keep open for a few more hours until about midnight/1am Korean time (12 hours from this post) to allow late entries to get in.

 

 

Essentially. Aim to get everything done in the next 8 hours, but you'll have about 4 hours of grace for the big preseason stuff if something delays you. 

 

[chasmmi]

45 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Hey, how much time is left? I am not done. TT

 see the post above.  

[chasmmi]

9 hours ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Oh, I really appreciate that. I am competitive, but will take this as a learning experience. By the time a derby roles around again, I will be more solid. I did complete my predictions last night. It took me a while. Overall, I think I may be on the high side of things. We’ll see though. Lol. 

 

But hey, I really really do appreciate the words of advice and the guidance. You’re awesome! 👍

 

As a general rule, each year I stumble around in about 15th-20th place and then rise into the top 10 as people decide they screwed something up and think they are screwed and consider giving up.

 

 

...then preseasons are revealed and they realise they actually would have been in contention after all if they did give up.  

[kayumanggi]

4 minutes ago, chasmmi said:

 see the post above.  

Thank you!

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, chasmmi said:

@baumer @Tele Dondarrion @grim22 @Water Bottle @andy126 @WrathOfHan @SchumacherFTW @narniadis  @Chewy  @MrPink  @4815162342 @Sheikh @YourMother the Edgelord  @CoolEric258  @kayumanggi  @MovieMan89  @Spaghetti  @darkelf @Kalo  @Filmovie  @Jake Gittes  @The Dark Alfred  @24Lost  @Tower  @ZeeSoh  @bcf26  @Tyler Durden  @aabattery  @Dipper  @Blankments  @Fancyarcher   @TalismanRing   @Mattrek  @Sam  @Premium George  @grey ghost  @That One Guy  @jj99  @BobDole  @Infernus  @Cmasterclay  @captainwondyful  @Captain Craig   @Deja23   @Slambros   @Empire   @druv10   @AndyLL  @Darth Lehnsherr  @ChipMunky  @Rolling Thunder  @The Fast and the Furiosa  @8wombi7  @Keanu  @JMorphin  @GambitPool  @feasby007  @Matthew  @AhmiiZafii @POTUS 2020  @Exxdee  @Ms Lady Hawk  @Bates  @Nicholas  @Deep Wang  @terrestrial  @Fish&chips   @Olive  @Porthos  @DeeCee  @MCKillswitch123 

 

I know some of the above have already entered / declared non-entry, but it is my best source of random potential entrants. 

 

Here is the deal:

 

Weekly question and QOTW threads will both close at a normal (ish time) about 8 hours after this post. (9pm Friday Korean Time)

 

The main preseason and SOTMs I will keep open for a few more hours until about midnight/1am Korean time (12 hours from this post) to allow late entries to get in.

 

 

Essentially. Aim to get everything done in the next 8 hours, but you'll have about 4 hours of grace for the big preseason stuff if something delays you. 

 

I’m sorry, but I don’t think I’ll be able to compete this year as I’m very busy .

[chasmmi]

Ok qotw e and week 1 threads are locked. 

 

Person is open for a couple more hours 

[Avatree]

I forgot about the summer game...

 

[chasmmi]

SOTM 4 is up  

 

 

 

[Jake Gittes]

ah a classic

[JJ-8]

QOTW is fully scored (including this weekend as it's already answered just with the friday figure).... 

 

Week 4 is open for answers already

 

[JJ-8]

 

Week 1 scoring is about to hit!

[JJ-8]

Week 1 Answers

 

Part A:

 

1. Will Avengers Open to more than $260M? 1000 YES

2. Will Avengers Open to more than $300M? 2000 YES

3. Will Avengers Open to more than $280M? 3000 YES

4. Will Avengers Saturday increase from its true Friday (excluding Thursday previews)? 4000 YES

5. Will Will Avengers' make more than 82.5% of all the box office of every film reported by BOM when actuals are released? 5000 YES

 

6. Will La Larona drop less than 56%?  1000 NO

7. Will Pet Semetary stay above Us? 2000 YES

8. Will Avengers Endgame overtake Dumbo's Domestic total on its opening day? 3000 YES

9. Will any film in the top 15 drop more than 65%? 4000 YES

10. Will Hellboy's PTA stay above $750? 5000 NO

 

11. Will Little increase more than 40% on Saturday? 1000 YES

12. Will Shazam drop more than 33% on Sunday? 2000 YES

13. Will the White Crow have a PTA above $12k? 3000 YES

14. Will After stay above PEnguins? 4000 NO

15. Will Captain Marvel decrease less than 20%? 5000 YES

 

16. Will Shazam's domestic total on Saturday be closer to the domestic total of Dumbo or How to Train Your Dragon? 1000 DUMBO

17. Will Pet Semetary have the worst PTA in the top 10? 2000 NO (PENGUINS GOT THE HONOURS HERE - JUST)

18. Will Breakthrough overtake Hellboy DOmestically by the end of the weekend? 3000 YES

19. How many films will make more than $2.5M this weekend? 4000 7 FILMS

20. Will Thanos ultimately be defeated by the power of friendship? 5000 *

 

Bonus: 

 

12/20    3000

13/20    5000

14/20    8000

15/20   12000

16/20    16,000

17/20   20,000 

18/20    26,000

19/20    32,000 

 20/20   40,000  

 

 

Part B:

 

The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:

 

Closest:  Within 1% - 15,000,  Within 2,5% - 12000,   Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000  Outside 10% - 3000 points  

2nd Closest:  Within 1% - 12,000,  Within 2,5% - 10000,   Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000  Outside 10% - 2000 points

3rd Closest:  Within 1% - 10,000,  Within 2,5% - 8000,   Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000  Outside 10% - 1000 points

 

1. What will Avengers make for its 3 day OW? $357,115,007

2. What will Dumbo's Sunday gross be? $1,100,333

3. What will Missing Link's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $671

 

 

Part 😄

 

There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:

 

1. Avengers: Endgame (if anyone gets this wrong they should be lined up and shot!)

3. The Curse of La Llorona

6. Dumbo (2019)

8. Pet Sematary (2019)

9. Us

11. Missing Link

 

Because I realised bonuses are stupid...

 

1/6   4,000

2/6   10,000

3/6   18,000

4/6   25,000

5/6   36,000

6/6 - 50,000

[JJ-8]

Well week 1 ended up being a very wide range of scores with the @CoolEric258 topping the first week and surprisingly, 1 of our weekly leaders from the winter game dropping to the bottom on the first week of the summer in @BobDole.

 

#	Player	Part A	Bonus	Part B	Part C	Total
1	CoolEric258	55000	20000	0	36000	111000
2	24Lost	50000	12000	15000	25000	102000
3	Jake Gittes	58000	32000	1000	10000	101000
4	WrathofHan	52000	16000	2000	25000	95000
5	glassfairy	50000	8000	0	36000	94000
6	Infernus	50000	8000	0	36000	94000
7	MovieMan89	51000	12000	6000	18000	87000
8	MrPink	53000	16000	0	18000	87000
9	Panda	43000	5000	3000	36000	87000
10	captainwondyful	51000	16000	0	18000	85000
11	PanaMovie	46000	12000	7000	18000	83000
12	Empire	46000	8000	2000	25000	81000
13	ZeeSoh	50000	12000	0	18000	80000
14	JJ-8	47000	12000	1000	18000	78000
15	Simionski	47000	12000	0	18000	77000
16	Sheikh	46000	12000	0	18000	76000
17	chasmmi	49000	16000	0	10000	75000
18	Fancyarcher	43000	12000	0	18000	73000
19	NannerManCan	48000	12000	0	10000	70000
20	Wrath	45000	12000	0	10000	67000
21	Mike Hunt	43000	5000	0	18000	66000
22	bcf26	40000	8000	7000	10000	65000
23	kayumanggi	45000	8000	0	10000	63000
24	Kalo	41000	8000	0	0	49000
25	BobDole	36000	0	0	4000	40000

 

[JJ-8]

Overall so far it's quite simple... 1 week of scoring equates to the overall score!

 

TW	LW	Player	Week 1		Total
1	-	CoolEric258	111,000		111,000
2	-	24Lost	102,000		102,000
3	-	Jake Gittes	101,000		101,000
4	-	WrathofHan	95,000		95,000
5	-	glassfairy	94,000		94,000
6	-	Infernus	94,000		94,000
7	-	MovieMan89	87,000		87,000
8	-	MrPink	87,000		87,000
9	-	Panda (A Panda of Ice and Fire)	87,000		87,000
10	-	captainwondyful	85,000		85,000
11	-	PanaMovie	83,000		83,000
12	-	Empire	81,000		81,000
13	-	ZeeSoh	80,000		80,000
14	-	JJ-8	78,000		78,000
15	-	Simionski	77,000		77,000
16	-	Sheikh	76,000		76,000
17	-	chasmmi	75,000		75,000
18	-	Fancyarcher	73,000		73,000
19	-	NannerManCan	70,000		70,000
20	-	Wrath	67,000		67,000
21	-	Mike Hunt	66,000		66,000
22	-	bcf26	65,000		65,000
23	-	kayumanggi	63,000		63,000
24	-	Kalo	49,000		49,000
25	-	BobDole	40,000		40,000
26	-	AndyLL			0
27	-	Cmasterclay			0
28	-	Darth Lehnsherr			0
29	-	Ms Lady Hawk			0

 

[JJ-8]

And here is Week 2's answers....

 

Week 2 Answers

 

Part A:

 

1. Will Endgame Make more than $160M? 1000 NO

2. Will Endgame make more than $200M? 2000 NO

3. Will Endgame make more than $180M? 3000 NO

4. Will The Intruder Open in 2nd Place? 4000 YES

5. Will the top 4 new entries' combined 3 day OWs total more than Endgame's 2nd Friday? 5000  NO

 

6. Will UglyDolls make more than Long Shot?  1000 NO

7. Will Captain Marvel drop more than 40%? 2000 YES

8. Will La Llorona stay above Breakthrough? 3000 NO

9. Will Little stay above Dumbo? 4000 NO

10. Will Penguins stay in the top 12? 5000 NO

 

11. Will Pet Semetary's PTA stay above $450? 1000 YES

12. Will Shazam drop less than 55%? 2000 NO

13. Will Missing Link  increase more than 90% on Saturday? 3000 YES

14. Will Endgame cross $2B WW by the end of the weekend? 4000 YES

15. Will Disney pull the rest of its summer slate from the release schedules now because really... what's the point, there's no money left in the world? 5000  *

 

Bonus: 

 

9/15    5000

10/15   8000

11/15    12,000

12/15   16,000 

13/15    20,000

14/15    24,000 

 15/15   30,000  

 

 

Part B:

 

The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:

 

Closest:  Within 1% - 15,000,  Within 2,5% - 12000,   Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000  Outside 10% - 3000 points  

2nd Closest:  Within 1% - 12,000,  Within 2,5% - 10000,   Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000  Outside 10% - 2000 points

3rd Closest:  Within 1% - 10,000,  Within 2,5% - 8000,   Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000  Outside 10% - 1000 points

 

1. Long Shot? $9,740,064

2. What will be the percentage change for Us? -57.89%

3. What will Endgame's PTA be? $31,614

 

 

Part 😄

 

There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:

 

2. The Intruder (2019)

4. Uglydolls

6. Breakthrough

9. Dumbo (2019)

11. El Chicano

13. Us

 

Because I realised bonuses are stupid...

 

1/6   4,000

2/6   10,000

3/6   18,000

4/6   25,000

5/6   36,000

6/6 - 50,000