US WEEKEND THREAD: Record 70.25 OW (highest grossing OW for an original horror)

[Eric Atreides]

https://deadline.com/2019/03/us-jordan-peele-weekend-box-office-1202580617/

 

Quote

Our box office intel says that Jordan Peele’s Us from Universal/Monkeypaw Productions is on track for a $4M-plus Thursday night, possibly even $5M off showtimes that began at 7PM.

 

These numbers could always fluctuate, and even if Us drops below $4M, it’s still a great result, easily putting away the $1.8M Thursday night preview for Peele’s Oscar-winning feature directorial debut Get Out back in February 2017.

 

Currently, Us’ Thursday is floating in the realm of A Quiet Place ($4.3M, which repped 23% of its $18.8M Friday with a $50.2M opening) and The Nun ($5.4M, 25% of its $22M Friday, for a $53.8M opening). Pre-weekend tracking was at $45M for Us with some figuring it will scream past $50M-plus.

 

[That One Girl]

Will go up.

[Valonqar]

this is good no?

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

this is good no?

Good but below what presales suggested I believe.

[Eric Atreides]

If it follows A Quiet Place

 

4M

17.5M Fri inc. previews

17.7M Sat

11.4M Sun

46.6M

 

5M

21.9M inc. previews

22.2M

14.2M

58.3M

[Legion Again]

It’s floppening     

 

Spoiler

More seriously that is lower than I would expect from the presales, but Deadline’s numbers at this point could move  a lot and we’ll see how true Friday goes. Even 50 would still be a great OW.

 

[filmlover]

FWIW it's selling great for the last shows around here (not surprising given it's a horror movie) so the number might go up.

[a2k]

If the much hyped Glass barely cracked 40m FSS how is 45-55 disappointing for US.

 

AQP did 3.8x after 50 ow. Get Out did around 5.2x multi which is nearly impossible to match but with very good reception 3.5-4x for US won't surprise me. 45-55 ow and 3.5-4x gives a wide range of 155-220 dom. Close to AQP splitting the difference.

 

[That One Girl]

Hard to find other horror breakouts that had early Deadline previews.  A Quiet Place and It both didn't have any, and Halloween's came in pretty far under (although that's almost certainly more frontloaded than Us).  I think it's best to just wait for actual numbers.

Edited March 22, 2019 by That One Guy

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

If the much hyped Glass barely cracked 40m FSS how is 45-55 disappointing for US.

 

AQP did 3.8x after 50 ow. Get Out did around 5.2x multi which is nearly impossible to match but with very good reception 3.5-4x for US won't surprise me. 45-55 ow and 3.5-4x gives a wide range of 155-220 dom. Close to AQP splitting the difference.

 

It's not disappointing, its just (as we also saw with Captain Marvel) when presales go absolutely crazy like this has in the final week there's often this urge to pull up expectations. Which makes sense, because "absolutely bonkers" numbers are more fun to follow than just "good" openings.

[a2k]

Get Out ow did 18-19x the previews. Much more front-loaded 11-12x would give US 44-60 using 4-5 previews.

[Eric Atreides]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Hard to find other horror breakouts that had early Deadline previews.  A Quiet Place and It both didn't have any, and Halloween's came in pretty far under (although that's almost certainly more frontloaded than Us).  I think it's best to just wait for actual numbers.

The Nun had early Deadline previews with an initial 4M+, then went to $5.4M. Not perfect, due to the quality difference, but I guess it works fine for now.

[Johnny Tran]

Hope it goes up.  I like when great movies are rewarded.  

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

The Nun had early Deadline previews with an initial 4M+, then went to $5.4M. Not perfect, due to the quality difference, but I guess it works fine for now.

 

That's an increase of 35%, which means Us will get to 6.75M if it increases at a similar rate to The Nun (high end) 🤔

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

it's best to just wait for actual numbers.

Think you might have wandered into the wrong forum buddy 😛 

[Eric Atreides]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

That's an increase of 35%, which means Us will get to 6.75M if it increases at a similar rate to The Nun (high end) 🤔

Using that preview #...

 

If it follows A Quiet Place:

6.75M

29.6M inc. previews

30M

19.2M

78.8M

[DAJK]

eh.. I expected more from pre-sales

[Djsoke]

I don't know how this weekend will turn out, but I think some people might have gotten a bit too carried away by the hype for the movie, and it kind of set the results up to be a disappointment for some. Even if this movie did "only" $50m, that's a pretty fantastic result. But using a single strong day of presales as a predictor for the weekend is optimistic at best. The movie was always going to lean heavier on pre-sales than a "typical" horror film, and presales are becoming more prevalent in general year after year. At this point, I don't think it's possible for the film to have a bad result, and it's still in the realm of possibility that it goes absolutely nuts, but there's nothing wrong with tempering expectations.

Edited March 22, 2019 by Djsoke

[That One Girl]

5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Using that preview #...

 

If it follows A Quiet Place:

6.75M

29.6M inc. previews

30M

19.2M

78.8M

 

needs a 3.73x or so to get past The Sixth Sense with that number #boxofficeanalysis

[Cmasterclay]

That is......really not great, considering the amount of buzz and the presales. Very disappointing if it goes anything under 6.5m tbh. I've been pushing this film hard as anyone but that number would br an objective letdown. I saw a pretty reliable person reporting that Tines Square AMC only had one sellout and had cancelled alot of late showings due to lack of tickets. Trying to stay optimistic but I have a very bad fedling about this.

 

I loved the movie but my crowd was very subdued and the group of friends I was with hated it. It is a more challenging and heady movie than Get Out. Not the crowdpleaser. I loved it but.....yea. Might go a little over people's heads tbh.