US WEEKEND THREAD: Record 70.25 OW (highest grossing OW for an original horror)

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I saw a pretty reliable person reporting that Tines Square AMC only had one sellout and had cancelled alot of late showings due to lack of tickets. Trying to stay optimistic but I have a very bad fedling about this.

 

I saw the movie there in an almost sold out theater and I don’t notice any less showtimes than there were earlier.  My crowd loved it as well.

 

Site says there were 5 sell outs.

Edited March 22, 2019 by That One Guy

[aabattery]

It's TOG's fault for the massive build-ups.

[Barnack]

5m would keep 57-60m alive.... ?

 

One of the biggest OW for a live action movie without any book/popular persona biopic/events/movies-game of all time ?

 

Below Inception, prime Will smiths/Jim Carey movies, 2012/days after tomorrow and Avatar. If it displease the it is just fun to watch the horror movie in a crowd and drop a la Blade Runner it could end up in a deception, but over A Quiet Place OW, would be the hell of an opening.

Edited March 22, 2019 by Barnack

[RichWS]

Calling anything over Halloween was a pipe dream. I admired the gumption, though. 

[Nero]

So my prediction of 40M+ is correct it seems 

[That One Girl]

Keep in mind that the presales were still huge and Deadline has been wrong many, many times before.  There’s still a genuine possibility for it to pull off an 80M+ OW.  We just won’t know how probable until tomorrow.

[filmlover]

Reserved seating has changed the game for presales. I just bought for Saturday evening and already most of the "good" seats have been sold. People who want those will plan accordingly.

[TwoMisfits]

No matter what, this will be the 3rd movie with heady presales that floats back down over the weekend in the last month.  I've stuck to $60M+ for Us since Monday, knowing presales with similar movies were predicting way higher, and I think it will still break $60M.  However, this kinda presale number probably does make impossible some of those overly optimistic DOM OW predictions from the presale thread (where apparently if you weren't predicting $100M+ from the presales, you didn't know Math:)...  

Edited March 22, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Lucasmessi12]

I knew that those comps comparing presales of this movie with other horror movies did not mean anything, no way this movie was going to open with $100m OW, like some here were predicting, and these people said that BOP was being unrealistic and too conservative with $54m OW prediction.

[Cmasterclay]

8 minutes ago, RichWS said:

Calling anything over Halloween was a pipe dream. I admired the gumption, though. 

I disagree, felt substantially, infinitely more buzz. I still have zero clue how Halloween made as much as it did but among pretty every one I know Get Out and the Peele brand is much more relevant and interesting than the Michael Myers stuff. I'll admit this is a blindspot though because that's a horror franchise people here go gaga for that people in all my social circles could not give a shit about.

[Cmasterclay]

Also I think that so much of movie sales occur online (and it's more every weekend) as presale seat pickers that it's pretty much pointless to even look at presales anymore until we get more comparisons from the year of release. It changes too much every year that old data is pretty much useless. Who walks up anymore? I bet 80 percent of Us' sales will come online compared to 50 percent if it had been released March 2018 and 30 percent in March 2017 (estimated numbers but you get my point). Pretty much the final straw for me taking presales seriously ever.

Edited March 22, 2019 by Cmasterclay

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I disagree, felt substantially, infinitely more buzz. I still have zero clue how Halloween made as much as it did but among pretty every one I know Get Out and the Peele brand is much more relevant and interesting than the Michael Myers stuff. I'll admit this is a blindspot though because that's a horror franchise people here go gaga for that people in all my social circles could not give a shit about.

Halloween probably pulled from more age groups equally - that movie was 17-85, so it could pull a heady number...

 

It had that same type of age range...

 

It could be Us is not getting that kinda wide age range...

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I disagree, felt substantially, infinitely more buzz. I still have zero clue how Halloween made as much as it did but among pretty every one I know Get Out and the Peele brand is much more relevant and interesting than the Michael Myers stuff. I'll admit this is a blindspot though because that's a horror franchise people here go gaga for that people in all my social circles could not give a shit about.

lol Halloween's marketing was literally everywhere last fall. Plus, nostalgia sells these days. Makes sense it was a big hit.

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I disagree, felt substantially, infinitely more buzz. I still have zero clue how Halloween made as much as it did but among pretty every one I know Get Out and the Peele brand is much more relevant and interesting than the Michael Myers stuff. I'll admit this is a blindspot though because that's a horror franchise people here go gaga for that people in all my social circles could not give a shit about.

Could be a really market by market things ?

 

In mine, no comparison between this and Halloween, would it need be of the Internet I would have not know this was coming up. While Halloween was giant (the older adult just didn't made has much buzz noise by capita I would imagine).

Edited March 22, 2019 by Barnack

[That One Girl]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Reserved seating has changed the game for presales. I just bought for Saturday evening and already most of the "good" seats have been sold. People who want those will plan accordingly.

 

The Fandango comparisons had this doing 95M or so if it followed Halloween.  There’s no way presales have changed that much in just 5 months, to the point where an inherently frontloaded franchise is less presales heavy than an original horror movie.

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

Could be a really market by market things ?

 

In mine, not comparison between this and Halloween, would it need from Internet I would have not know this was coming up. While Halloween was giant.

I think this is probably the answer. I can almost guarantee that Us will make more than Halloween in Broward County and Miami-Dade County, Florida, or DC, or even New York, but it won't do near what Halloween did throughout small towns and rural, whiter areas with high school kids throughout the rest of America. It is market bias on my part. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

The Fandango comparisons had this doing 95M or so if it followed Halloween.  There’s no way presales have changed that much in just 5 months, to the point where an inherently frontloaded franchise is less presales heavy than an original horror movie.

I feel like people are increasingly catching on to the fact that if you want good seats, you need to buy in advance.

[DAJK]

If this does indeed end up in the 50-60M range, we could have a very interesting conversation on the nature of pre-sales and how front-loaded things are becoming. Or if this is just an anomaly. Either way, should be an interesting analysis. 

[Djsoke]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I disagree, felt substantially, infinitely more buzz. I still have zero clue how Halloween made as much as it did but among pretty every one I know Get Out and the Peele brand is much more relevant and interesting than the Michael Myers stuff. I'll admit this is a blindspot though because that's a horror franchise people here go gaga for that people in all my social circles could not give a shit about.

Halloween had plenty of buzz, it's just a different type than Us. Halloween was literally opening on Halloween weekend, retaining the main characters, buoyed by good reviews and an immense amount of nostalgia + good timing. Halloween was the "hey it's Halloween, let's go see the movie" type of event. But like you said, Peele's brand is much more permeating. Kind of the "high-brow" type of horror. Like, the buzz for Us has been building, but for the most part, it's a movie that you know you're going to see. It's an anticipated follow-up to a breakout film. Hence the higher pre-sales

[a2k]

mid 40s is a very good ow and mid 50s is simply great.

 

mid 60s qualifies as bonkers in my book as it would be nearly 2x get out's 33+ ow.

don't know how much higher to expect.

 

this will not have the usual horror legs.